Tentative calling of market top for the next few months?

Yes, I know, we are in the strong season for general for the stock market. Yes, calling top is a fool's game. But I am starting to scale in short positions on SPY and am willing to add to it at the SPY 4800-5000ish levels, three times, to a short position one third of my portfolio size, starting small, using the daily bar to trade. Target, SPY 4000-3800ish.

It will be my hedge to the other 30% of my portfolio, cryptos, as they say, when the stock market drops, the crypto market will drop too. Hopefully this time, if the stock market has a slower bleed, the crypto market will actually melt up. Will see and come back next June to this thread.

 

What’s the catalyst for a drop?

 

Why bet against seasonality and a strong trend?

If a medium/long term short trade that's worth being in materializes - you'll have enough time to enter after some confirmation anyway.

 

I never short the US index values, its not worth the risk.

 

We will likely close lower next week. After that, who knows.

 

china will screw it up like they did with causing the virus pandemic. my guess short term by next summer; they will try to take taiwan by force.

 

We all know retail is wildly bullish, how about the whales?

 

Oh you know what the CCP is planning? Are you a commie spy?

 

What that chart tells me is that we are in for another major melt-up as those shorts will have to eventually unwind by covering.

 

What makes you say that? Do you have an inside scoop?