Taking a stab and rational thought

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Brandonf, Jun 8, 2007.

  1. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Ok, this is just a short term thread. I've been reading with interest all of the posts threads of the last few days here on ET. Seems we have a lot of people with passion for the bull cause and the bear cause too. Depending on who/what you are reading this is either the buying opportunity of a lifetime (probably its not) or its the beginning of the end (again probably its not that either) So, what is it?

    Well the hell if I know. And, anyone who is being honest with ya is going to say the same thing. No one knows what the market is going to do tomorrow, much less a week or a month from now. Thats just the truth, but that said you can take things, as the old Christian song goes, "One Day At a Time Sweet Jesus" and I think stay just a step ahead of the crowd.

    At this point all I see is a well needed sell off. We have gone straight up for a long time without pausing. This is NOT healthy, all healthy bull markets need to rest. Maybe thats what this is.

    On the other hand there are a lot of "not so great" things going on out there. Bond prices, to me, being the most concerning. This feeds into housing and construction employment and a lot of other things too. Its worth watching cos this bear market in bonds (and thats what I think we are in) has the potentially to end ugly for equities as well.

    However, for the time being THE TREND IS STILL UP, and the last time I looked "the trend is your friend until the end when it bends" Maybe its bending now, and if it is there will be an easy way to know it. FIRST) The leading stocks will break down hard, names like CROX, AMZN, MA, RIMM etc with clear momentum and leadership will fall apart. That aint happening yet. SECOND) heavy volume declines (we have seen this..so do be careful) and LIGHT VOLUME RALLY. As I see it these are the two things to look for right now to signal a short. If those leading stocks break down, and if when the market rallies it can not get any volume behind it, then i'd be loving the short on Mid Cap Growth (look at the MDY, it's gotten killed more than any other big group). However, until/unless this happens, then this is simply a pullback in a bull market. During a pullback in a bull market I like to spend my time looking for stocks showing good relative strenght. Buying names that get creamed with the market will do you no favors long term, but sticking to the names that hold up well when the market is ugly has proven to be succesful over time.

    Hope this helps someone. If it does then I'm a happy camper.

    Brandon "I aint got nothin to sell ya nomore" Fredrickson
     
  2. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Here is a list of stocks which showed great relative strength during the markets pullback. I will have more to say later in the day.

    PVH, RIMM, CROX,AMZN, MCD, HPQ, GES, PPS, TGT, GRMN, CPLA.
     
  3. "Ok, this is just a short term thread. I've been reading with interest all of the posts threads of the last few days here on ET. Seems we have a lot of people with passion for the bull cause and the bear cause too. Depending on who/what you are reading this is either the buying opportunity of a lifetime (probably its not) or its the beginning of the end (again probably its not that either) So, what is it?"

    ----------------------------------------------

    Well Brandon, its just another day in the market...In my view having a passionate idea about market direction is for retail traders, a significant portion of whom lose on a daily basis (daytraders) and on the intermediate or longer term as investors.

    As I have said before a few times, I have no idea where the market is going, and when I think I do, I try to forget as quickly as possible...:D

    I orient myself the intraday movement using a chart with 60 min candles. I trade short term momentum because I took the time to research the viability of that approach long ago (years ago). It has worked extremely well over a decade and continues to this year.

    By all means continue with what you have to do, but try to take a lesson from MarketSurfer's thread. If it aint working, don't simply throw you hands up and say, well I am waiting for that big move :) We all have to eat once in a while, and personally I don't favor the "well I am waiting for that big meal" approach..

    :D
     
  4. 1) The trend is your friend.

    2) Don't follow the herd.
     
  5. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Well Brandon, its just another day in the market...In my view having a passionate idea about market direction is for retail traders, a significant portion of whom lose on a daily basis (daytraders) and on the intermediate or longer term as investors.

    We agree.


    I orient myself the intraday movement using a chart with 60 min candles. I trade short term momentum because I took the time to research the viability of that approach long ago (years ago). It has worked extremely well over a decade and continues to this year.

    Excelent.

    By all means continue with what you have to do, but try to take a lesson from MarketSurfer's thread. If it aint working, don't simply throw you hands up and say, well I am waiting for that big move :) We all have to eat once in a while, and personally I don't favor the "well I am waiting for that big meal" approach.

    We certainly all have to eat. Surf and I both know each other pretty well and I think there is a good deal of mutual respect between us. I started trading in 1996 and have had one negative year since. I started with $20,000 and have since grown to the point of managing a low seven figure account. I think the clients are happy since I have not had any redeptions..but my approach has always been to wait till its pretty obvious to me what is going to happen. Maybe I'm just not the smartest guy on the block, but when I try to make a trade every single day, hell even every single week, I tend to be getting my ass kicked for it. That said there are other times that I might be making 100 + trades in a week, but I've also had months where I only made 3 or 4 trades. I don't believe in taking the best available trades, I believe in taking only the best trades period. That said, just because it works for me doesnt make it right for everyone else, but I would also add that for a long time i ran a website where we taught people the "art and science" :) of trading. About 11 or 12 of those guys are running sites of their own now and doing quite well, including Bo Yoder, Ivica Jurasic, Jens Clever etc. Also a number of guys are runnning their own money, a couple of them more than I am, many others trade their own accounts successful. Of course there are also many that for whatever reason did not make it, most probably got bored waiting for a perfect setup.

    In any case, it sounds like you have a plan and are following it with success. I wish you continued good fortune.
     

  6. thanks, brandon. nice to see you back, looking forward to your posts!

    surf
     
  7. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Its good to be back and healthy again.
     
  8. "We certainly all have to eat. Surf and I both know each other pretty well and I think there is a good deal of mutual respect between us. I started trading in 1996 and have had one negative year since. I started with $20,000 and have since grown to the point of managing a low seven figure account."

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    Yes, well Brandon this is my profession and has been for many years. Although I always hope for reasons to "respect" my fellow man, in this instance, all I can determine from his own comments, and from simple observation to date, is that the gentleman is a fraud or a fantasy trader...From my point of view, the most generous thing I can say is that your comment is "interesting..."

    Good luck to you..

    Steve
     
  9. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Steve, I had your "friends" earlier posts here removed because I'd like to keep this on topic and avoid personal attacks. So, with that in mind lets get back to the topic, which is trading.
     
  10. Take a look at ATHR and its performance last week. It held up very well.
     
    #10     Jun 10, 2007