This swingtrading journal will only be trading eur/usd, gbp/usd, gbp/jpy, eur/jpy and xau/usd. I will be risking 3% per trade for a reward of 3%. I will close my account if I ever make a drawdown of 15% of the highwater mark. I basically use four setups and will have my trades open at most for 4 days, sometimes at most for 3 days. I will initiate positions only at the end of the day, often using buy stop or sell stop orders. Only on occasions will I do an at market buy or sell at the end of the day.
On friday I opened a long gbp/usd position @1.2712 because of a morning star on the daily. My target is 1.2819, my stop is at the low of two days ago.
cable gbp/usd is very likely to hit 1.2622 it is in a trading range on the hourly. trading a morning star, without prior bullish strength in a tight bear channel, is trading a set up with total disregard to the context it appears in. it is possible you know something i do not know but just thought i would point out my view
I have to put my cutoff point somewhere: to protect my capital and to protect my profits. I arbitrarily put it at 15%. I just hope it won't come to that.
I use stochastics for context, it's pointing to oversold. No guarantee that I win on this individual trade but the odds are good.
The range I use for context suggests to me that GBPUSD has a lot more room up above than it does down below (should it happen to decide to follow through and continue heading north for a bit).
As expected nothing much happening today because of 2 bank-holidays. I am taking the opportunity to put in a buy stop in eurjpy at 122.81 with a stop at 122.14 and a target of 123.48 (67 pips R:R, or 3%).