Hi, I have a system, that tells me if an instrument is AIL (always in long) or AIS. GC 30min Globex chart in that case. According to that I take several different types of trades: - stop entries above/below bars (SE) - B below and S above a bar (BB, SA) - B or S the last bar's Close (lmt C) I marked the initial risk of every trade (the brown markers) and the multiples of that as reward (the blue markers) I marked the return, that a swing trader would achieve with the light green arrows. But that would mean to spend the entire day watching markets and tighten stops. I'm trying to find a method, that tells me around certain price areas (the multiples of my initial risk), whether it's likely that the next multiple could be possible or not. Often the swing stop is pretty far away and that would mean give back a lot of profits. Also I would like to be able to hold some trades overnight as there are some epic ones out there. e.g. the 1st long. _________________ Cheers, Thomas --------------------------------------------------------------- Check out my daily reads on the E-mini https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/EK_yfB
this is what I mean with epic, we dropped another $6 until just now we went 1t below the 3x initial risk (IR) of the last SA short and you can see, that there were tails at 1x and 2x IR as well, so the targets seem to be pretty spot on, just need to know what to choose
Backtest/ forward test to see what makes more sense for efficiency/your risk tolerance. Personably I have two swing trade setups that kind of replicate what you have going on. The my first target is equal distance from my entry to my stop( 1R ). My stops are discretionary. Ideally I want to move my stops up as the trade goes in my favour. If the trade hits my 1R then my new stop would generally be somewhere between 1R and my entry. At about 1.5R I’m really ratcheting the stops up to basically try and stop myself out. This is usually around the low of the precious candle but could be higher depending on volatility and range of the previous bar. Theirs also a few criteria where I’ll just close the trade at the close( certain candle types and price action that usually signals loss in momentum in a swing. The other setup involves closing half the position at 1R which cuts the risk( also future profits) but I also will put that position back at full size when another signal comes in. Benefit of cutting position is I can cut volatility in the PnL of the position and also catch the larger moves. Just to be clear though I don’t view my profit targets as any type of magical line. All the setups looks the same when I enter but some work out, some don’t. Their more of a way to measure risk/reward, position sizing, etc. I personally backtested trades with set profits with my setups and it just left way too much money on the table. I’d rather just crank the stops up tight since the best trades literally require me to just move my stop limit orders at the end of the day.