The NASDAQ and S&P are both up this year from January – May. However, the NASDAQ has massively outperformed the S&P by more than 6%. Here are all the historical cases in which the NASDAQ outperformed the S&P by more than 6% from January-May (while both indexes are positive), and what happens next to the S&P for the rest of the year. This is historically a bullish sign for the stock market for the rest of the year (June-December).
There is probably another study somewhere that shows if SPX leads Nasdaq its a bullish sign. Buying begets more buying begets .... until it doesn't. Genius - those study writers.
It is a bullish sign. I can't think of a time where relative strength hasn't tipped off the market direction. You could also get more specific, by industry and classify each as risk-on and risk-off. Consumer discretionary being risk-on, obviously. Tech being risk on. Consumer staples being an example of risk-off. You can see how money shifts from one to the other over the course of months/years - not hours or days. For me, the rally is on, and it's doubly on for the NQ.
%% Exactly; QQQ also.BUT since JUNE-SEPT has been weakest, in QQQ + SPY, more or less. And its still a bull market you know/200dma. NOT a prediction ;see what happens by turn around Tuesday, close. MANY June sell offs started earlier in the month.....
The charts are far from bearish... shrug. I’m unfortunately overweighted in equities at the moment, otherwise I would have added at the end of the day.
%% JULY-SEPT tends to be weakest quarter, SPY, QQQ,IWM.....; not a prediction,+ with tax cuts, maybe, maybe not a good uptrend. GE is still going down, as it has much of the past 18 years. I was reading a William O Neil/IBD book he had a chart of GE @ $60 as something not to buy LOL- true