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SPX implied Vol

  1. The VIX dropped to the lowest level we've seen since 08. I'm debating, selling more or buying what do you guys think?

    Mark S.

  2. Well the VIX dipped down to 22.80 today, closing 23.01, I know its not a perfect measure of vol, but I think vols are really getting low.

    I like your blog btw

  3. It's been a little lower Mark - 22.48 on 9/11/09 and 22.19 on 9/23/09.

    Tell me what your outlook is for stocks and I'll tell you whether to be long or short the VIX. You'd have to be pretty bullish stocks to be short the VIX here, an aggressive stance given the move we've had over the last 7 months.

    So before you short more VIX here, ask yourself - do you feel lucky today? Well, do ya?
  4. :)

    I reckon Dirty Harry would have been a very good options trader. :D

  5. Right, but this was the lowest close we have had. Anyway, wouldn't be surprized if we had some sort of small sell off here.

  6. Ahh I see that you were referring to VIX close... I was looking at intraday.

    BTW, return kudos for your blog. :)

    Nice one.
  7. THANKS!

  8. it is interesting to see people trade ( or treat ? ) VIX as people trade stock index.

    What is behind this VIX drop ? More SP index call buyers than put buyers nowdays ? Is this considered a bearish sign ?
  9. I dont really trade/treat the VIX as a stock index. It is more of an indicator light to me that something may be happening in the option markets. It is a commonly misunderstood index because of its natural tendancies (its essentially a Vega weighted index). Right now I'm looking at it and seeing the VIX close at new lows over the last year. We finally closed under 23. Personally, that is an indicator on how to approach my portfolio (I wrote my approach in my blog if you care).

    BTW guys, It closed below 23, what do you guys think?

  10. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TA0DD1MTasY

    a really bad interview of Paul Wilmott, look at the comments people are making about this cnbc interview. Kudlow & the chick(don't know her name) look like a complete idiots....

  11. the only guy who looks like a complete idiot to me is Paul himself. My gosh, he could not answer a single question straightforwardly or refused to do so. But then why did he start to stutter and completely run out of ideas when being pointed to the fact that he keeps on answering the wrong questions?

    Admittedly, the interview seemed ill prepared and much better questions could have been asked but hey, I did not expect anything else from CNBC but Paul Wilmott? Disappointing...maybe in his mind he was still with that chick he banged on the top of the Deutsche Bank building the night before...

  12. Wilmott is a legend
  13. I was not saying he is an idiot, I said he looked like one in that interview. He can do so much better and he generally has got a fantastic humor but he completely messed up that one interview for himself.

  14. I imagine its like trying to have a discussion with a four-year-old. You would sound stupid too.

  15. he refused to answer a stupid question, as usual CNBC has no clue what the fuck they are talking about, you are starting to get on my nerves, what is it exactly that you trade? I really doubt you are in a position to criticize Wilmott, douchebag!
  16. patient my boy, I will show you next week.

  17. OK Mr Bigshot, I'd say you are talking out your ass as usual.
  18. VIX at this level shows that too many are comfortable with increasing risk appetite. I guess, lot of hedgies enjoying the lack of six sigma events...:D
  19. thats why I said wait till next week. Not everybody trades on intraday time frames.