m22au - What do you make of the recent reports ? The market today didn't seem to like it for BBVA & SAN ~ I've been under the thinking that until Spain asks for that bailout that there is still another shoe to drop and that could cause quite a market drop. Spain isn't Greece - the market has to take Spain problems seriously. I bought calls on BBVA/SAN in August but sold them early, but at least made something on them.
It was well known before the release of the Oliver Wyman report that SAN and BBVA are much stronger than BKIA and POP. Although SAN and BBVA have greater international diversification and less exposure to the Spanish property market, I can't bring myself to invest in them because there's the grey swan of a possible Spanish Euro exit, which would be a massive negative for all Spanish banks. If forced to be long a Euro-area bank I would prefer a bank in a more stable country - Deutsche Bank comes to mind immediately.
"Popular Said to Approve Share Sale of Up to EU2.5 Billion" http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...e-share-sale-of-as-much-as-eu2-5-billion.html "UPDATE 1-Popular OKs capital hike of up to 2.5 bln euros-source" http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/30/spain-bancopopular-capital-idUSL6E8KU2QG20120930 ""The increase will be made imminently, in the next few days or weeks," the source said. More details of the bank's new strategic plan are expected to be announced shortly, the source added. Popular declined to comment."
Reuters reports that POP has formally confirmed the capital raising "UPDATE 1-Spain's Banco Popular approves 2.5 bln-euro share issue" http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/01/spain-popular-idUSL6E8L146T20121001 Trading has been suspended for POP:SM - Suspended by Regulator Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/pop:SM
POP Analyst webcast http://www.grupobancopopular.com/EN...ntations/Paginas/RetransmisionResultados.aspx 29 page PDF presentation: http://www.grupobancopopular.com/EN...ions/Documents/Anlyst Presentation 011012.pdf The 2.5 billion EUR rights issue is confirmed in the presentation. ******************* Separate to that, there is a formal notice to the CNMV about the 2.5 billion EUR: (PDF file) http://www.cnmv.es/portal/HR/verDoc.axd?t={6079aee1-6c5c-442c-bb2b-a707fe97320e} which is a link from this Bloomberg article: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...e-share-sale-of-as-much-as-eu2-5-billion.html This is an index of POP announcements on the CNMV web site: http://www.cnmv.es/Portal/hr/ResultadoBusquedaHR.aspx?division=1&nif=A-28000727&ihr=2 It looks like the trading halt will end at 11.00am (5am New York)
"Spain's Popular says to make share issue by mid-November" http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/01/spain-popular-acquisitions-idUSE8E7L605E20121001 MADRID | Mon Oct 1, 2012 4:49am EDT Oct 1 (Reuters) - Spanish bank Popular said on Monday it planned to make its 2.5 billion euro ($3.22 billion) share issue by the middle of November. "We expect to launch the share increase in the next five weeks, probably by mid-November," said Chief Finance Officer Jacobo Gonzalez-Robatto.
Spain's Popular to issue up to 6.25 bln shares in capital hike MADRID | Mon Oct 8, 2012 5:59pm EDT www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/08/popular-shares-idUSL6E8L8OGK20121008 2.5 billion EUR 6.25 billion shares equals implied price 0.40 EUR last price 1.47 EUR implied discount to last price is about 73% "Spain's Banco Popular, will issue up to 6.25 billion shares to raise capital after failing a stress test, the bank said in a stock market filing on Monday" "The bank said on Monday it would hold a special shareholders' meeting in Madrid on Nov. 10 to discuss the share issue plan." "A spokesman for Popular said the discount was not fixed and will depend on demand from the investment banks involved in the capital hike." "Popular's Chief Financial Officer Jacobo Gonzalez-Robatto said last week that the discount on the bank's shares could be up to 50 percent." *** Current share count 2,047.38 million http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/pop:SM
POP price sensitive information from the company's Investor Relations section of web site: http://www.grupobancopopular.com/EN/InvestorRelations/Paginas/HechosRelevantes.aspx POP price sensitive information from CNMV: http://www.cnmv.es/Portal/hr/ResultadoBusquedaHR.aspx?nif=A-28000727&division=1&ihr=2 8 October announcement regarding shareholders' meeting and rights issue: http://www.cnmv.es/Portal/hr/verDoc.axd?t={74d7e77c-c4ab-471e-860a-63ac2abc9cbd}
"Decision by the CNMV to extend the precautionary ban on short positions" http://www.cnmv.es/portal/AlDia/Comunicaciones.aspx http://www.cnmv.es/portal/verDoc.axd?t={227c40be-440b-4876-a9fb-02db3afbbeb3} 1. Extends existing ban to 31 October 2012 2. Will commence a "new" ban from 1 November 2012 for a period of 3 months
Here is a Reuters article which describes the extension of the ban: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/10/19/uk-spain-short-selling-idUKBRE89I13O20121019