Based on confirmed opening range trends, pivot points, and trend line break outs / break downs ... My first call after 3 weeks of paper trading is SPX short 1286 9:07 MST
The stop on almost all trades is the High of the day rounded up to the nearest half point. as of 9:26 MST the trade is working well at +1pt. The target is partial profits at 5pt / half of the daily average range and taking the rest at 15 minutes before close of market. Occasionaly, we will let a intraday scalp that is +10pts or more run untill the the a 10 or 20 Moving Average crosses over for a 2-3 swing trade. Once a trade is ahead by 2-3pts, the stop changes from the High of the Day (HOD) to a break of the trend line (1289.20 @ 10:46 MST drawn to 1287.76 at about a 45 degree downward angle).
As of 9:36 MST, the trade is +3pts and setting target of 1281 for 5pts profit, stop is now at 1285 using the trend line
And here we are at +5pts SPX (SPDR in a 25K cash account, ES in a 5K futures account) as of 9:48 MST. Ka-CHING! Using futures, and taking half of the profits, we we be up +5ps on half and our stop on the other half would be at 1284.5 (or whatever the SP cash translates to in nearest expiration futures...) We are 1 for one and +5pts so far folks. What we did is verify the daily trend using the opening range, waited for a confirmation via a failed pull back in to the opening range, and then traded accordingly.
Given the congestion (as defined in Auction market Theory) that exists at teh 79 level, I would exit the rest of this particular trade at 1280 (this is a key over under level for very long time frame traders on a 3-5 year chart).I would also set the stop at 83 on the second half now ... and be prepared to short again on a pull back to the trend line.
Stop on second half is now 1282 (top of last congestion area) if it breaks this area, look for a Low Of Day (LOD) to be established as 1280 was probed and failed.
Getting out at 82 and going long at 82 with a 1 pt stop and target of 85. The reasoniong here is that the trend of the day is over based on reaching a HUGE congestion area and bouncing off of it.
long at 1282 now working well. This is one you could ride all the way back up to 1325 if ya wanted to take three weeks. Once we get back to recent market highs, watch for 4-5 range abound days in row, a fake to the bottom, a fresh new high that lasts less than a day, a revrsion the range bound area and then ... a HUGE plumet. This will mean the long term players have gotten out and the SP may see 3-5 lows (the 800 reange). Its NOT about economics, its ALL about buyers and sellers of various time frames haivng concluded thier business. Markets are about finding buyers and sellers for each other, NOT primarily about fundamental econmic.
stop is now at Break Even (BE) this could do a bouble bounce or make a head and shoulders pattern off the bottm here. If we get stopped out at BE, prepare to go long again at break of 1282
Well, it didn't bounce there (yet?), it appears to be in the controll of very long time frame buyers still and making a new short term trend line from the low of the day (1280.22 to the 12:20 low to 1282.3) at possitive 45 degree angle or so... Stop is now 82.5 or .5pt below this new trend line