More echos of 2008: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-what-happened-when-sec-banned-shorting-financial-companies-2008
Market smells Greece mail fail any day and SG will be in touble once they do. Same issue @ Commerzbank.
So just how much toxic feta will these guys be eating WHEN Greece defaults? I keep seeing analysts come on tv and defend the Eu saying the EUCB will soak up all of this mess, however I havn't heard anyone throw out a number. Leads me to believe theres gonna be some bad blowups even though they want everyone to believe otherwise.
Not sure if this will have an impact on SocGen (and Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas) on Monday, but interesting in any case: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...dit-agricole-said-to-face-cut-by-moody-s.html "French Banks Poised for Moodyâs Downgrade"
The best analysis I've read on the French Banks is from French blogger JP Chevallier: http://chevallier.biz/2011/08/french-gosbank-tsunami-risk/ The Tier 1 capital ratio of the 4 largest French banks is 3.7%: BNP 3.7% Credit Agricole 4.4% Société Générale 2.0% BPCE 4.6% [BPCE is the 2009 merger of Banque Populaire & Caisse d'Epargne] SocGen leverage is 50.4:1!! The 4 Banks in aggregate would need about â¬360 billion just to get to the 10% Tier 1 ratio that the US banks have. Who knows how bad it is in the German, Swiss, Spanish, etc. banks. Amazingly the 4 top French banks are also on the hook for â¬650 billion in loans to the PIIGS and â¬472 billion just to Italy. SocGen is basically insolvent. Its just a matrer of time before they go belly up or the French Government will have to nationalize them.
some analyst at barclays says they can meet a 100% writeoff of piig investements. how is this possible. different article- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ng-is-skewed-to-short-term-barclays-says.html _______ From Bloomberg: BNP Paribas SA, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole SA (ACA), Franceâs largest banks by market value, are trading at levels that imply a 100 percent loss on Greek, Irish and Portuguese holdings, according to Barclays. In the case of Paris-based Societe Generale, the share price even implies full writedowns on Italian and Spanish debt, according to Barclays. BNP Paribas (BNP), Societe Generale and Credit Agricole may have their credit ratings cut by Moodyâs Investors Service as soon as this week because of their Greek holdings. The 90 banks that underwent European stress tests would face an estimated capital shortfall of 350 billion euros ($479 billion) if Greek, Portuguese, Irish, Italian and Spanish government bonds were written down to market values, according to Nomura analysts led by Jon Peace.
Franceâs three largest banks by market value "MAY" have their credit ratings cut as early as this week because of their Greek holdings, two people with knowledge of the matter said. The countryâs lenders top the list of Greek creditors with $56.7 billion in overall exposure to private and public debt, according to a June report by the Basel, Switzerland-based Bank for International Settlements. $56,7 billion? Peanuts for France.
He also has a lot of good analysis of other European banks as well. He seems like he is pretty well informed. I started reading him in early August and I've been short Europe ever since. I really don't see how they can resolve the problem without a TARP-like entity. They have the EFSF but there isn't much left in it, certainly not enough to bail out the French banks. -Sid Oh I forgot to add that most of the posts are in French but he does some in English. I just use the Google translator to get the gist of the post.