Societe Generale thread

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by m22au, Aug 11, 2011.

  1. m22au

    m22au

  2. Sorry, I respected your postings about the banking sector in the past. But the information in the link is VERY LOW QUALITY.

    If, would, should, could, maybe...that´s all what it has to offer.
     
  3. m22au

    m22au

    Good point, but if nothing else it's useful in recognising that there are strong similarities between BSC / LEH and the current situation with SocGen.
     
  4. Daal

    Daal

    I'd say there are a ton of differences between BSC/LEH and SocGen. For one they have full ECB support which the ibanks didn't had. Furthermore EUROTarp is already out there through the ESFS. Chance of SocGen failling is close to 0% as it gets
     
  5. m22au

    m22au

    Agree that it's unlikely that SocGen will fail, because of government support.

    But if the bank loses its sources of ST funding, and "requires" a bailout, then shareholders could see further losses.
     
  6. Daal

    Daal

    I want to be more bearish and believe its 2008 all over again but why haven't the Greek banks been destroyed yet?Its the worse place in the world right now and the banks have not suffered runs other than a gradual deposit outflow. I can't help but to see all of this panic as a short-term bottom that should last for days if not weeks. If this happens they should call it the 'its 2008 again' bottom
     
  7. m22au

    m22au

    Agree that this could be a ST bottom that lasts for days. But that doesn't mean that the bottom won't be violated (or alternatively massive money printing) in the months ahead.

    As for Greek banks, I asked the same question in May 2010
    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=198211

    and GoC provided a great response:

    "Cmon mate, do you really think the average Greek account holder is a global macro trader or astute reader of the financial tea leaves? Look at Northern Rock, it was obviously insolvent for months before the bank run happened. Most Russians didn't withdraw capital in early 1998, most Argentines didn't in 2000-2001 etc.

    "The authorities have a vested interest in keeping things quiet, and the man in the street just doesn't know about these things."
     
  8. Daal

    Daal

    Isn't there at least 1 Greek bank with lots of wholesale funding?
     
  9. Short gamma's a bitch!
     
  10. m22au

    m22au

    Not sure about the mix of deposit / wholesale funding.

    I covered most of my NBG short above $1.25 (oops) but I'll consider shorting it again if it gets back there.
     
    #10     Aug 11, 2011