Home > General Topics > Economics > So, will Berlusconi survive the next week?

So, will Berlusconi survive the next week?

  1. I hope not.
    Problem is, the opponent leftist party isn't that much better.
    We shall see...
  2. If they couldn't get rid of Papandreou....
  3. You can't predict it. I've watched italian politics for yrs and its just random in nature. Although govts do tend to change with the wind.
  4. Check the numbers.
    The US is not in a better shape in terms of total debt, debt to GDP, deficit, unemployment, % of foreign held debt.
    I actually think Berlusconi is a better leader than Obama, Merkel and Sarkozy.
  5. "I actually think Berlusconi is a better leader than Obama, Merkel and Sarkozy."

    is this your feeling or can u can back it up with facts and figures?
    does it make a difference if he is better? is he that much better to get Italy out of their economic malaise?

    more importantly do these people project leadership qualities rather than being simply elected to their positions
  6. Italian 10 year at 6.6%....

    Give it a week or 2 and you can put a fork in them.
  7. Il try to answer your 4 questions:

    1. Is he a better leader (in numbers and facts)
    I believe he is a better leader as he has proved successful in real life. He's become one of the World's richest man starting from scratch. I tend to trust more people that have dealt with business and taking risk on their own, rather than Harvard professors of macro. He also developed some true capitalism in a country where where this word could not be spoken. (Remember that during the 70s most Mediterranean European countries had scoialist/communist parties at 40/50% consensus in the polls).

    2. It should make a difference if he is better as history has shown that charismatic presidents/PMs have produced the neccesary structure for growth and wealth in their respective countries.

    3. Will he get Italy out of malaise? No, not immediately at least. Berlusconi is now a clear target of IMF and ECB. He is 'out of the system', unpredictable and unreliable. Most of all, he is extremely rich and for this reason unresponsive to IMF corruption and bribery attempts. The ECB will soon stop purchasing Italian bonds, with some silly excuse, to drag him down. Italian default (whether ordarly or not) and full-blown crisis, will be the best therapy for a country that has clearly deranged.
    In the long term Berlusconi, has produced some structural, cultural and social changes, that will turn useful to the country.

    4. These people project some good qualities, only whem they have the passion that only a great personality has. In most cases politicians represent a category which is a notch below the child molester.
  8. +1
  9. This week you will be able to follow free of charge a fantastic 'practical history lesson' worth hundreds of thousands of $$ if it was a Harvard course.

    The destitution of an old leader (Berlusconi),
    performed by IMF

    The imposistion of a new leader, (Papadopoulos)
    performed by ECB

  10. Yes, and of course he's blown millions on the parade of Italian beauties he's had to pay off to keep quiet over the years !
  11. Berlesconi is not the issue. The bus goes over the cliff no matter who the driver is....Italy will have a high cost of debt that it cannot afford...immediately caused by the ridiculous Greek scheme that makes Sovereign debt impossible to insure (because CDS has been castrated) and thanks to Merkel and Sarkozy's reaction to the Greek proposal for referendum (think about that a move for Democracy coming out of Greece...how shocking), that they would kick Greece out of the EU, you now know that countries can leave EU and default...and demanding 50% haircuts from private lenders...is anyone surprised that prudent creditors and holders are dumping EU sovereign debt?... especially Italian. What do they think they are doing! These people are idiots...they might as well have taken out a tombstone ad in the WSJ...DON'T LEND MONEY TO ITALY! The Italian roll over of existing debt, post the Greek debacle, must now be funded by the ECB...provided China or Russia will loan the ECB the money.
  12. 18.54 Berlusconi will step down after the confidence vote on new budget in law in mid-November.

    Berlusconi will resign, says Italian president Giorgio Napolitano, with whom he met for an hour this evening.
  13. Next up, Markets rally cause Berlusconi might stay in office...:p
  14. Sov CDS being castrated is the best thing that could possibly happen to the mkt.
  15. But it has the effect of raising interest rates for debts to levels that no growth sovereigns cannot afford...please explain what market that is good for.
  16. The gold market.
  17. Good answer!
  18. No, it doesn't, not really... It normalizes interest rates to their long-term structural and fundamentally justified levels. The fact that sov CDS is an off-balance sheet derivative that has allowed people to speculate in the mkt they shouldn't be speculating in is neither here nor there. The ability of sov CDS to slice up the various risks embedded in sov debt (separating credit from the other stuff) has a marginal and temporary impact on the long-run cost of sovereign debt, which is contrary to the myth perpetuated by generations of bankers (applied to many other financial products). Moreover, the positive aspect above is far outweighed, IMHO, by the lack of clarity, distortions and unnecessary volatility introduced.
  19. I understand your opinion Martinghoul but it is simply just wrong. You wrote, "It normalizes interest rates to their long-term structural and fundamentally justified levels." Do you understand that is complete bullshit...as if you could know what that was? I suppose you could point at it afterward and say, oh yea, that was the "normalized longterm structural fundamentaly justified level"...you know it when you see it...but look quick before it changes!.

    The sovereign CDS was a tool of risk management that was applied to insure against undue risk of default for investment in Sovereign debt. The fraud of saying that a 50% haircut, ("I'll make you a deal you can't rufuse"), was voluntary and so, not a credit even...has destroyed the use of CDS to insure a range of default...the immediate response of private soverieng debt investors was to withdraw from the market...that makes interest rates go up as the risk of owning the debt cannot be managed with CDS. An increase in interest rates is the same thing as an increase in risk.
  20. So, he is gone.

    He will either go to jail or leave the country for London probably right... Where all former dictators go...:D
  21. Yeah, but he'll be taking his harem of bimbos along with him.
    Don't feel sorry for him. I'm sure he has quite a "war chest".
  22. the italian B boy.

    once you have " money for nothin' and the chicks 4 free......."
    the only thing left is power.

    off to the greek isles with the lad and his entourage.

  23. He's got quite the life for the next several years....and just think about those daily BJ's he will be getting over that time period.
    Am I envious ? YOU BET !
    Is Berlusconi smarter than me ?
    What does that say ?
    He's in the 1%.