Home > Markets > Options > So who's still beating it with butterflies/condors?

So who's still beating it with butterflies/condors?

  1. Whiplash underlyings and thunderous implied vol changes require constant hedging. Really squashes the tranquility of the fly since the juice tank hasn't been stable enough to absorb from and you're ultimately forced to pick sides during the flip or reconfigure your settings.

    Oh, the irony. You originally collected the birds because you didn't want to pick sides in the first place. Bull party? Bear gang? Forget their acts of the land creatures - you were busy frolicking in the sky. Accepting neutrality was rewarding.

    You only had to stay within the play land and let the wings protect you. Well, now the wings are indeed protecting you, but wait, it's not really a good thing because it means you've been relocated from your fun land. Oh, it means you also have to pay rent now, so move on.

    New day, new play. Vanished are the global dead-vol market index months where you could lay comfortably and watch others chase and battle each other. Now you might actually have to join them because the storms can come by and flatten your domes or pyramids in a heartbeat and leave them in historic land.

    So you're not dancing on a street anymore but playing frogger on a highway. Do you really still want to play this tight balancing act? Conditional market shifts are inevitable and the vol-boys have cranked up a few notches of intensity to challenge your flight. Perhaps best to put on something and take off immediatey to just capture short-term crushings, but you definitely don't want to stay around for the swings. Maybe everyone should just pay the high fare and ride the gamma-fueled rocket bus for the imminent periods because the juice isn't worth taking anymore.
     
  2. why aren't you shorting some flies then? sounds like you could make a killing!
     
  3. so the juice isn't worth the squeeze?
     
  4. Butterflies are still working over here, profitable the last 4 months in a row. Without a lengthy narrative too. Do your homework next time.
     
  5. Iron condors working over here as well, profitable the last 3 months in a row. This month doesn't look too good, but there's still time.
     
  6. GOOG Jan 600/650/700 at $23.80. Good for 8-10 in a week.
     
  7. I agree with the above posters...just about the ONLY thing that has worked for me in this high volatility environment has been B-fly's...even if they don't hit pay dirt...seems easier to adjust for at least modest profitability. Doing a couple of IC's but getting a bit seasick with the crazy market.
     
  8. My experience is similar.I have had consistant success with Iron Flys at 35-45 days out,then making adjustments as dictated by the market.Have been adding ICs or more Flys to initial position.It has been difficult but doable if you are cautious and stay awake.
     
  9. The market is constantly changing.Apparently,the period is switching from write to buy due to rising volatility.

    For sure,it will turn back one day,
     
  10. The ego of Eliteboard members never shrinks. Everyone wastes no time in pronouncing their exaggerated abilities at any opportunity. :p

    Let's be real. You're making pocket change, if any. if you're still using flies/condors.

    Sure, butterflies can still be okay if you're trading some instrument that has been sleeping under a rock and hasn't been effected much by the global volatility, but those things probably aren't that useful because you're probably collecting pocket change.

    And if you're trading stuff that's correlated to all the volatility, then you're probably experiencing quick erosion of theta from all the hedging costs. Or, if you're one who doesn't hedge at all, you're probably riding a roller-coaster in your P&L.

    There are really two kinds of traders who seek profit from premium of the flies, and here are some scenarios:

    A.) The butterfly position trader. You're either confident, lazy, or stubborn... it doesn't matter because you behave the same - you basically put it on and just hope that everything works out by expiration regardless of what happens in between. If the market has beaten your fly up brutally for the first three weeks and then rallies on the last two days of expo to bring you back to profit, would you consider you great trader who knew what you were doing all along? If you're an Elitetrader, of course.

    But something suggests you never really had a strong opinion of the directions of the markets, so you're full of it. If you did, you wouldn't had the fly on in the first place. You took a neutral stance, and that's why you put on the fly on the first place! You didn't want to pick sides. But you only chose to pick sides when the market remarkably worked against you once your fly got beaten up and you were stubborn to repair it.

    B.) Then there's the disciplined of juicer who hedges often to does not let things get out of proportion. These are "day trading" fliers. Okay, you hedge at every set points whenever the underlying moves. It was easier before because you only had to manage a turtle, but now you're occasionally forced to deal with a rabbit on crack. Up 5. Down 8. Up 3. Down 10. Up 7. Down 30. You sure you're drinking enough juice to cover that violent sprint marathon and frequent hedging costs?

    Think about it.
     
  11. This is a truly remarkable post.You have been a registered member for 24 hours or so and without a moments hesitation or evidence of your own experience you dismiss the trading styles of any number of successful traders.I note you don't offer any constructive suggestions or evidence that your approach is superior in any respect.In fact you don't mention anything about your trading at all! Is that because you don't actually trade or you simply don't deign to converse with us mere mortals.It appears to me that you started this thread solely so you can impose your pompous diatribes on others. Thanks but I pass.
     
  12. in addition, hate to rain on your party but 1 sigma violations are in statistical alignment.
     
  13. Not trying to inflate my ego here mate, just stating the facts since you are trying so hard to make it sound like it's so hard to make money and try to put everyone down. In fact it's been relatively easy. Couldn't help myself but post :D

    I've been profitable making 3% a month since April trading PUT ratio spreads. I make amt this trading only PUT side, no CALLS. I've learned a lot from various traders here but one of them said something that really started me trading confidently. And it is .....drum roll......"do not over leverage". This trader is the real deal among a handful that i have enormous respect for and walks the walk trading for a living for many years with a good track record, surviving 9/11, tech crash, london bombing and this years sharp falls. A key thing he said is don't overleverage and you can really make a living doing this. That really hit home to me. I have been adhering to this strictly and have been trading confidently since then. Don't get me wrong....one can still get in trouble and lose, especially with my risky ratio spreads. I open the spreads for a credit and normally close them for a credit too. Starts out negative gamma converting to positive gamma. I think it's a beautiful strategy and well worth the extra risk of the naked PUTS. Don't get me wrong it's still a risky strategy but I don't blindly write them. I still have to time the market.

    3% per month maybe measly returns as per your post but they're definitely good enough for me :) Hey but maybe you're a super trader who makes 10% a month. If so...good for you mate :)

    Cheers
    scoobs
     
  14. PUT ratio spreads is extremely risky for me currently due to the turning bear market.
    The extreme event is increasing recently.
    But I think you write your put on certain technology,utility stocks?
     
  15. Me too, like water in the teapot:D
     
  16. Methinks that he has been bitten by flies.
     
  17. Your post does not warrant a sensible reply. Have fun storming the castle!
     
  18. I hear ya.... I find the key is as to how wide my spreads are. That's one of the ingredients in my secret sauce :D

    Good trading to you and may the black swans stay away.
     
  19. Hi Jaques

    I actually like a bear market as long as there are no mini black swans. Hi vol and plenty of juice in premium

    I currently only do my ratio spreads on ES. I wouldn't dare do it on individual stocks for obvious reasons. Yes, i agree that it is currently risky on PUT spreads in this environement but i have already gone through JULY/AUG which i feel was even worse when VIX went to 37. Came through that okay....touch wood. Once again, Im quite careful and my leverage is quite conversative, but it's still no guarantee. If the markets gets worse from here i may be forced to adjust.

    Cheers
     
  20. Who says a fly has to be neutral? It can be a directional strategy.
     
  21. I was making an informative thread of possible results of butterfly positions during volatile markets, but as usual, no one could intelligently respond to the post because they know I'm right, so they turn to ad hominen alternatives. Very typical of elitetraders. But I described all your scenarios to the dot.

    If you're hedging every swing of your fly, you're not making much, if anything at all, since the hedging costs are drinking away your juice.

    If you don't hedge but just "sit and watch" with a stubborn attitude, then you're just riding a roller coaster with your P&L and hoping everything magically pans out at expiration regardless of what's going on in between. But with that kind of discipline, you probably *should* continue to trade these things because you're a trader who never adjust your errors, and only the wings save your butt when you're wrong.

    Or if you're not doing flies but "iron" condors with very wide strikes, then you're just tying up a lot of capital for barely pocket change. You may be taking minimal risk, but you are also receiving minimal gain (or perhaps even none). Almost akin to investing in treasuries.

    So some of you ask what do I prefer to trade?

    Something that's very suitable for these times. It's right in front of you. If you're that perplexed, play scrabble or learn to identify backward appellations.

    Read and learn.
     
  22. Do you have a link to such a request? I don't think anyone has asked what you trade.
     
  23. 1. New member using "as usual" ?
    2. We are LINING UP to share our strategies with you ; WAIT FOR IT !
    3. Nobody here cares what you trade and what you think; you are here to provide liquidity for our trades
    4. CYOF ? BUZZY ?
     
  24. You are just another troll trying to kick the hive under an alias.

    We get it.



    No one here feels compelled to knock down your little straw men.

    RIP thread, RIP.
     
  25. Ah now I understand.Your mother read Sophocles to you when you were a child and ever since you have had zoomorphic identity issues.You think you are the Sphinx and have a right to attack anyone in your neighborhood.If I solve your riddle will you selfdestruct?LOL
     
  26. OK, thanks for settiin' us straight. You sound really smart....ba bye.
     
  27. Hmmm... you disgruntled folks (segv, belldummy, etc) really show your performance in the markets with your responses. Maybe some of you really oughta go back to the drawing boards or trade something else if the fly is really not working out that greatly for you.

    But you're mostly poor traders in the first place, so it may be hard so you're stuck with this.

    If you knew how to trade better, you wouldn't need the fly. Face it. You have a weaker perception of the markets and don't know where it's going. Without wings, your ass would be toast, and if you don't hedge, you're probably the kind with no discipline who wouldn't survive if you put on anything other than a winged fly (which is really an option position with like training wheels so you don't fall that hard since you don't know how to do any better). lol

    And you are mad? Oh right, because it's true.

    But instead of getting riled up, perhaps you should pay attention to new things. If not, that's why traders of your particular levels never reach anywhere. You just get angry but refuse to hear advice. So how's that fly working out for you today?

    Ooops, made you mad again.

    Read and learn.
     

  28. I GOT IT.....Mav's Christmas trees!!!!! :p


    troll...

    point is you didn't start the thread with "what works best in a high vol environment" you asked if any was "still"beating it with flys/condors. There are other strats not mentioned (ex a backspread...perhaps diagonals) that can work quite well right now and to say a butterfly is NOT a high reward strat is bogus. It is a LOW risk..LOW probability...VERY high reward trade. and as pointed out it can be directional...embeded with short verticals etc to increase the probability of a win.

    This forum is for sharing (freely) ideas and the regular contributors have done so without the games you want to play. Put up( big bucks can't fail trade) or just STFU and leave. :mad: :mad:
     
  29. OH ...thats different...YOU KNOW where the markets are going.........

    I will be reading with great interest when you decide to enlighten us all :)
     
  30. What if you want to bet on an extended trading range, isn't a butterfly/condor a good position to express that view? Couldn't you avoid the problem of arbitrary expiration dates by simply exiting when the market is in the middle of the range. I don't see why hedging would make sense, when your market view *wants* to be long at the lows and short at the highs of the range. If your view is wrong then of course you will lose money, but that is true of all trading positions. Also could you explain what is "stubborn" about executing a strategy consistently when the market is continuing to do what you expected all along, and why is it bad to use wings to limit your risk.

    Also I don't see how it is hoping everything magically pans out - in that case, ALL positions are about hoping everything magically pans out. A hedger hopes his hedging magically saves him money rather than getting him whipsawed to death. Someone trading volatility hopes they don't fade a 1987 style vol spike, or keep buying during a 2003-2006 volatility crush. Mean reversion traders hope they don't run into an LTCM etc
     
  31. Some of you illogically disgruntled folks don't have to listen to me if it pisses you off so much.

    Go ahead and remain stubborn.

    Find your favorite point, and short more gamma tomorrow. Go do it, kiddies.

    But wait - don't forget the training wheels, uhm, I mean wings. lol

    Hey, maybe expiration will be a miracle and the underlying will close exactly at the tip of the pyramid!
     
  32.  
  33. 1 Wait for VIX > 30
    2 Place legs for wide-strike butterfly with a bullish bias (e.g. midpoint 100 points higher than the current S&P)
    3 Wait for agev to take the other side of your trade...
    4 Profit!
     
  34. agev==vega (got it...)

    ~B

     
  35. Lots of information has been written in your face. Whether you want to digest it or dismiss it is up to you. Maybe your ego is preventing you from learning right now, or maybe some codes are just too intellectually puzzling for you to even understand anything at all.

    Thread was posted, and information has been shared.

    Some people here want answers, served on the silver platter, and they desperately ask questions, but they don't even have the capacity to decipher and interpret simple things when the explanations have already been lined out. They need everything explained to them in the most dumb-downed aptitudes. Or maybe they just need someone to pound it through their head if they're still forcing the square peg into the circular hole. I'm sorry if it's that hard for you.

    And no, you *don't* get it. Not even close.

    And some people obviously don't have much reading comprehension. Why do they even put any real money to trade in the market with such inadequate level of attentive skills?

    Indeed. We have a winner.

    Vega has been lovely to trade.

    Take advantage of the vol of vol.

    What's really fun right now?

    -Long gamma, short vega.
    -Long gamma, long vega.

    And in really sweet cases:

    -Long gamma, long theta, and S/L vega

    (where you can benefit from all three elements simultaneously.)

    A gamma workout with the markets often leads to a vega workout. They contribute to each other, and it's almost a perpetual thing. If you don't understand this, then you shouldn't be trading vega. And it's not similar to ordinary gamma/theta because these things do not have to work against each other.

    But some of you are probably still have no clue or are too slow to know how what all this means or when to even perceive the impact of change of dynamic market conditions.

    So in case you're still very slow to pick up on things, as measured by the observed intellectual incompetency of most respondents to this thread, we are having a market cycle shift, and in this awakened shift from a near dead-vol period to the volatile environments, shorting tons of gamma risk just to collect that unstable premo, even with your winged protections, is a sure way to make you only very little, break even, or lose a lot. You don't have to believe me. Continue doing what you're doing and you'll probably dig up this thread up later and wish you had been more inquisitive when you first read it.

    This thread probably could had been one of the better gems of this board if some of you clueless amateurs didn't piss it away. But that's all I wish to share right now. Doubt even a quarter of you would even understand any of it. Some of you are still dreaming that the markets are moving gently and hoping to capture juice from a running target.
     
  36. This thread is really fun!:D

    agev, your insights are mind-blowing, I shall follow your posts closely and learn how to make it in this market! Finally, someone has turned on the light at the end of the tunnel!:D
     
  37. :D Yeah Agev, thanks alot.
     
  38. Well get to the point then. Your posts are long-winded and no one as requested any info from you about your trades.
     

  39. Do you miss everything when you trade in the markets as well?

    Your responses to me aren't even insulting even though I know you're trying to be offensive. I just find them incredibly entertaining because I keep on showing things right in your face, and you keep on asking, "WHERE IS IT???" I'm just amused by how one can be so lost.

    Look harder. It's right in your face.

    You have a propensity to just miss everything. You've already demonstrated it twice. But please do attempt with greater effort next time because this would be your third try.


     
  40. agev.....that quote from bellamy isn't a request for trading info from you, it's just an observation of what your posts are lacking.
     
  41. I got what you mean.You write put when the underlying is narrow-moving or oversold.
     
  42. Short calendars, short 2x1 natural flies x straddles and time flies. Ooooh, I am shaking. Sofa king impressive I'm going to need to take a nap. Mmmmm, mud butt.

    Vega: Some of us went to high school, so save the remedial bi/trimodality. It's not going to impress Thain at MER. He's not here... really, he's not.
     
  43. Funny, but I felt exactly the same way when I scanned your posts.

    Your exotics aren't sofa king exotic.

    You went to grammar school though, right. You respond on the same level.
     

  44. That's it? That's all you've got? Please take a moment and collect your thoughts.

    Mr. "gamma eclipse" is back in action. Oh joy, awaiting the next "nyah nyah" witty rejoinder. PLEASE FUCKING RESPOND!

    Oh I know... you worked in the back office at Renshaw, right? You overheard someone discussing Taleb and caught the odd daytime erection?

    redrum
     
  45. But got you ticking pretty good. Is that from low EQ or just from low equity realization? Or both??

    So blow any more accounts lately?

    Don't worry. You might still be useful.

    I like my coffee dark. Not too much cream. hold the sugar.
     

  46. You want your money BACK? Far more interesting and inquiring minds want to know...







    Who have you blown lately, Tiger?
     

  47. My money is fine. Thanks for taking my fills though. You always accept losing with open arms?
     
  48. Hurry up, you've got time for another edit. I am not accepting deposits, so no fresh-talk, fluffy.
     
  49. So you need a job?

    I like reuben on rye. Has to be on my desk no later than 11.

    Surely, you can't screw this job up too.
     
  50. Pic of agev below. Prepare for scorched corneas. His angst is certainly understandable:

    [​IMG]

    He must workout. How much Premarin exactly?
     
  51. Searching on Google for pics is a sign of witless desperation.

    At least you excel in failure in comebacks.

    Now you wish you never responded so you wouldn't had been slapped around.
     
  52. Oddly, not from google. A pic you sent. Work on your grammar. I am curious. How many gallons of horse pee is required for this Premarin dose? I can almost see your...
     
  53. Yet another edit? Now you wish you never? Wouldn't had been? wtf?
     
  54. So the effects of blowing up have left you like this?

    Have you tried therapy or is that too expensive?

    Just get my sandwich, and I'll pay you.

    Don't lose that money too though.

    You have to lose your habits some day.
     
  55. Please enlighten us on your move from "gamma eclipse" to long gamma. I recall the thread in which you were shorting garbage strangles until you went debit. So now you've got religion, do you? Soooo... selling d/g and d/v was good, now bad?
     
  56. So how many pages would this go on before atticus finally gives up?

    You can really observe his trading style with his personality.

    He's stubborn and refuses to take stop losses. Blow up how many times and still not learn?
     
  57. D, please fill us in. You started this thread to school us on drift. We're waiting, but it appears your estro is clouding your thoughts. Or perhaps it was those penny strangles you were selling? C'mon sweetie, let's hear all the juicy model-inviolate stuff!

    You mean to tell me you can't back up your drivel? It's only a short calendar, ya know?
     
  58. What's funny is that you have no idea who I am and you're throwing all kinds of desperate assumptions out there and hoping to be right from at least one of dozen guesses. So did you really get flamed out with so many posters? I never heard of "gamma eclipse" nor even remember ever talking to you at all. But I did scan your posts when you responded to mine, and you seem to have your head pretty up far your ass, so I'm having fun with you. Too bad you can't keep up.
     

  59. Obviously, he won't quit until he's completely blown out.

    Stop losses aren't in order with atticus.
     
  60. What's comical is you started a thread as have a million other losers. You bitch about flies as though any position is lacking merit. You act as though reading a Wiley edition made you a quant, which is truly depressing if you believe what you're posting here.

    Better still, now you're responding to your own posts.

    I weep for your children. You're killfiled.
     
  61. No, what's comical is that you thought you were going to have an easy time being a d1ck, but instead, you responded in the wrong thread and now you got yourself bitchslapped all over around.

    You're losing your cool and unable to maintain any stability.

    But you're also too stubborn to quit even though you know you're making a bigger ass of yourself with each reply. If you trade how you post, it's obvious why you've been so unsuccessful. You just don't know when to throw in the towel.
     
  62. You took it upon yourself to start a troll-thread to beat upon anyone who advocates buying a fly. Unfortunately, you came to a gun fight with a tee-ball bat.

    Grow up. The World is absolutely busting with people smarter than you think you are.
     
  63. If I came with a tee-ball bat, you came with a water balloon.

    You tried to rain on another's parade, but unfortunately, you got yourself all wet instead.

    And you've completely lost your cool in the process and even talking about family members.

    Man, I'm really pushing your buttons.

    But too bad you don't have the wit nor emotional ability to keep up.

    And you should take your own advice and not take your knowledge so seriously.

    Maybe it's one of the reasons why you lost so much money.
     
  64. I love cat fights :D
     
  65. You're a fucking clown. Atticus is gonna embarrass you. Even more than he has already, you just don't know it yet. Disengage joker.
     
  66. there is no question agev (fucking clown) has been embarassed big by atticus. clear as a sunny day. i should know...he's gotten me a few. apparently agev got bitch slapped real bad in a previous handle. i am surprised that atticus spent so much time though. he must be bored.

    one thing i am sure of...he did not take any dd ...agev is projecting. classic stuff. this thread was meant to flush atty out though imo.
     
  67. Hmm.. funny how losers like to join in the party.

    And you're obviously a complete moron who believes the only way to make a living is to short otm indexes.

    You've been getting your ass kicked.

    Keep shorting more gamma, retard. :p

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1674554#post1674554
     
  68. My thoughts as well. Must be a slow day for you, eh Atty?


    That shit about the reading a Wiley edition had me rolling in the floor.
     
  69. LOL don\'t start with me. But if you insist, I\'ll make you look as stupid as you want to.

    I do other things besides trading, and make plenty of money, mainly in mortgages. Business is still very good in the non sub-prime sector. lol

    Now\'s your chance to let it go.
     
  70. P.S. Out of curiosity, where did I state I did not have a college degree? Thanks.

    Case in point. Keep it up, it gets better.
     

  71. Just scanned some of your old posts, and I am not sure if you even have average-level IQ.

    You're quite intellectually beneath me.

    Stick to topics you can handle like weight loss threads in chit chat forums or whatever retarded stuff you're interested in. Thanks.
     
  72. That's all you have to say?

    Go ahead let's talk about Hawking or something, Mr. Intellect.

    It's just funny to me that you are talking shit about Atticus, and anyone here who knows him sees how ignorant and wrong you are in your dumbassed assumptions. Your powers of deduction (if you want to even glorify them with that title) are comical. And laughably wrong, to boot.
     
  73. Damir S?
     
  74. Yet you cruise ET to find my previous posts to use against me and still somehow manage to make your arguments irrelevant.
     
  75. You assume the majority are trading neutral flies as a rollover-strategy and praying it works. I am sure a lot of people on this board do that. I imagine you did it in the past and got burned.

    In my experience, there are two types of fly-traders. One is making a vol-bet and trades it neutral. Anticipating a drop or a short-mark in synthetic time or an extension if short the fly. Neither hedges as it's a position-trade and not a monthly rollover methodology. They choose a fly to isolate v&g through defined risk and perhaps the gamma flip if they're wrong on vol and have written it off as a lotto ticket.

    The second type trades direction and leans on vol. They will trade deltas in line with spot-equivalent and calc gains from strips and a touch of neutrality. The buy index flies when leaning bullish and sell flies or go long garbage bear calendars when bearish.

    It's moronic to state that you wouldn't trade the position "if you had a strong opinion of the (sic) directions of the markets". It's a simply delta calc. Most trade direction and speed. Sure, you may flip deltas, but you'll earn more [=D] if correct on direction and magnitude.

    No position should be treated as a system. Rolling a monthly fly to the neutral-strike, or any position, isn't trading at all.
     
  76. lol, I wouldn't pay too much attention to forex-forex, he did the same thing in another thread! I couldn't work out whether he's just challenged or whether he's a troll!
     
  77. $32 last. Holding to expiration.
     
  78. Priceless...:D