So how did last year's analyst forecasts succeed?

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by Pekelo, Jan 2, 2012.

  1. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    After reading the forecasts of 16 analysts for 2012 (all but one bullish from breakeven to 1500 S&P), I got curious, just how well they did a year earlier? As you probably guessed it right, not very well, although their average prediction was almost reached by May...

    http://online.barrons.com/article/S...576019660899709744.html#articleTabs_article=1

    " the 10 strategists and investment managers surveyed by Barron's see the S&P 500 finishing next year near 1373,.....
    ....nine of the 10 strategists we polled are penciling in stock-market gains ranging from 7% to 17% for next year."

    Summary:

    Brian Belski - Oppenheimer Asset Management
    2011 S&P 500 Target 1,325, SPX EPS 88.5, 15x, GDP 3%, 10y yield 3.75%

    David Bianco - B of A Merrill Lynch
    2011 S&P 500 Target 1,400, SPX EPS 93, 15x, GDP 2.8%, 10y yield 4%

    *Douglas Cliggot - Credit Suisse
    2011 S&P 500 Target 1,250, SPX EPS 91 (2012 91), 13.7x, GDP 2.8%, 10y yield 3.5%

    Barry Knapp - Barclays Capital
    2011 S&P 500 Target 1,420, SPX EPS 91, 15.6x, GDP 3.1%, 10y yield 3.5%

    David Kostin - Goldman Sachs
    2011 S&P 500 Target 1,450, SPX EPS 94 (2012 104), 15.4x, GDP 2.7%, 10y yield 3.25%

    Michael Ryan - UBS Wealth Management
    2011 S&P 500 Target 1,350, SPX EPS 90, 15x, GDP 2.7%, 10y yield 3.25%

    James Paulsen - Wells Capital Management
    2011 S&P 500 Target 1,425, SPX EPS 95 (2012 103), 15x, GDP 4%, 10y yield 4%

    Henry Mcvey - Morgan Stanley Investment Management
    2011 S&P 500 Target 1,362.5, SPX EPS 93.5, 14.57x, GDP 4%, 10y yield 4%

    Jeff Knight - Putnam
    2011 S&P 500 Target 1,350, SPX EPS: 95 (2012 105), 14.21x, GDP 3.5%, 10y yield 4.25%

    David Kelly - JPMorgan Funds
    2011 S&P 500 Target 1,400, SPX EPS: 98 (2012 103), 14.28x, GDP 3.7%, 10y yield 4.25%



    Congrats to Douglas Cliggot - Credit Suisse, who got it right with his breakeven prediction...


    Some others:

    http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2010/12/2011-s-forecasts-1250-to-1450-10y-yield.html
     
  2. S2007S

    S2007S

    I always find these predictions hilarious, reason being is because every year they ask these analysts for their prediction about 90% of them say the market will close higher on the year, you will never ever see 90% of the analysts say the market will have a down year.

    These analysts who get paid 6+ figures have no clue what to predict, its all a guessing game as most get it wrong, anyone can play the game they play.
     
  3. GTS

    GTS

    10 year yield predictions were way off
     
  4. I'd say analyst forecasts are an awesome example of "survivor-ship bias"
     
  5. it seems 3rd year of bull market. SPX doesn't move much.
     
  6. 2009-2011