What I can say is that the break below 1289.50 was not confirmed. In fact, it bounced up - off *double support* (1289.50 area + rising 20ema). His lessons teach "don't short into a rising moving average". Again, this is a low risk strategy that repeatedly works. To answer your question, I don't know what to tell you because it is not a mater of him being right or wrong. He does not say "go long or short today" - rather he teaches what signals to watch for at the levels he posts. In so doing, you have knowledge to use the info he taught you to trade accordingly. Steve
Again, I am encouraging you to actually go back and watch his lessons - particularly his earliest videos where he teaches and speaks ad nausem on this particular subject. In short, a confirmation break consists of two CONSECUTIVE bars (in this case - lower) something that never happened here. At the same time, the rising ma at his level confirmed that the lowest risk trade was to go long at his level of 1289 area. Even a bad long entry would have netted at least 4 to 5 ES points. Good luck! Steve