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  1. Snapchat has tumbled quite a bit. I read some news by unsubstantial news outlets that they think it will go. I don't know. The put/call ratio has slowed down. Who's for puts and who's for calls?

    Will it reach its previous levels?
  2. Snap's outlook depends on the tech sector. If selloffs like today become common then the stock will follow.
  3. SNAP had a 2-day head start on the selloff today.

    I'll probably jump in on a mid-term positions if we see $17.60 again. Just a tiny position so I don't get slaughtered, but I also wouldn't want to miss the bus if they find a way to grow and monetize.

    Chart pattern today looks like support established at $18
  4. I seriously don't think there is any unique feature Snap can offer. What doubts are they having with their products...that's a big question
  5. Ludacris valuation for a company with no earnings and not having a way to monetize hundreds of millions of users that just went public due to the fact of perfect market conditions, if there wasnt an 8 year bull market this company wouldn't have even existed or gone public.
  6. Well, that logic looks sound to me. Won't miss this bus again. In at 18.20
  7. 900 Million shares hit the street come August when lock-up expires.
    I don't think the bottoms in yet. Seriously.
    Be careful taking this thing long.
  8. Yup, I know. Doubt I'll hold that long...have a tight stop on this one (would have had about a .18 stop had I saw this when it hit my target). Honestly, if it was worthless tomorrow it wouldn't even be my worst day this year because it's such a small position.
  9. Doesn't that assume they won't choose to hold onto their shares?
  10. That's correct.
    But look at a 52 week chart of Twilio. And Acacia. A pair of 2016's fair haired IPO's.
    And these companies make money.
    Would you hold SNAP? I wouldn't. Even if I liked it...I'd dump it to get the sell-off snowball rolling...buy back later in the single digits.
  11. Where does the earnings release fall relative to lockup expiration?

    It's possible they could find a way to monetize their user base before then...I mean FB was in a very similar boat...minus being up against FB as a direct competitor...or get bought up by Google in a wayward bid to bolster Google+...

  12. Earnings should be in the second or third week of August.
    Lockup expiration is 8/29
    18.1 Billion would be a lot to pay for a nascent "camera company" thats forecast to lose $3/share on over a billion shares outstanding. I think Google's BOD might have something to say about that. But who knows.

    From their website lol:

    Snap Inc. is a camera company.

    We believe that reinventing the camera represents our greatest opportunity to
    improve the way that people live and communicate. Our products empower people to
    express themselves, live in the moment, learn about the world, and have fun

    ..........Snowflakes. :D
  13. If you wouldn't buy now, why would you buy at all? Especially if they haven't monetized their myriad users. In that case, what isn't good @18 isn't good @8. That snowball effect is unlikely to correct unless they do something drastic.

    The next earnings report is expected August 9 per EW, which is before the lock-up expiry as per @vanzandt.
  14. Far flakier snow has rolled into something much larger.

    And sorry, the beer is clouding my sense of sarcasm-I don't really believe in a Google buyout. Market irrationality on the other hand...

    I don't see this getting below 17.50 anytime soon.

    I would caveat, this is the first time I've forayed into an IPO to enter that kinda spec position or predict it's future.

    And Snap's business model is bullshit...that's clear. It's name however...that's a serious play on turning this year's high schoolers into next year's burgeoning market.

    And I mean this sarcastically (with-maybe-the-slightest-hint-of-truth); I keep having these visions of the marketing coup of the century with a MO lobby effort on advertisement (possible with this administration) followed by a buyout. :p
  15. If I read your sarcasm right....
    Excellent commentary/observation on the Boomers.
  16. Nah, I was past anything that clever last night...I mean, yeah, that's what I meant :p
  17. I thought it was genius incarnate.
    My bad. But it really was.
  18. Actually, that does appear to carry quite a bit of meaning...especially living in Denver, and seeing some of the boomers that roll through here....and the snow that falls
  19. $17.20 All time low.
  20. Yup, I got stopped out today.
  21. Twitter all over again. TWTR fell quite a bit, even before the lockup expiration that represented 82% of their total equity. 40+% loss in the months leading up to the lockup expiration.

    Sounds like a good time for a long put Sept expiry maybe.
    TWTR 2013-11 - 2014-06
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  23. A rather hilarious picture to describe SNAP's predicament of cash and no profits.
    Why aren't investors heading for the door sooner? Shares will start hitting the market by the end of July. It seems like people are foolishly optimistic about the stock.

    Lockup expiry beginning in 07/31 - 08/31
    Earnings Report 08/05 - what earnings?
    Final nail in the coffin 08/31
    Run toward put SNAP Oct 21 '17 @18
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