Listen, your douchbag attitude makes you sound more like a prick than an authority on the subject. So, even though you want to sound cool, or smart, you still have not made me change my bias. Short the dollar.
As another posted above, the western euro countries have horrible outstanding loans. There are massive real estate bust going on over the pond as well. Another big aspect of the euro that is not good is that about half of the participating nations want out now as they are being dragged down by the weak sister nations that are in bad shape. This is creating alot of in-fighting. Think of it like the fight betwen the dems/rep. over here, but in seperate countries instead of individual people. The last point I would like to bring up is that the money being lent to banks is by and large to prop them up to meet capital requirements. A large majority of that money (most in fact), is not going into the economy and therefore cannot cause inflation. The money is in a sense, sterilized. Think of it as a slight of hand.
Nice post. I am certainly not an authority on the subject, but judging by your responses, you don't know jack shit about what it is your trading. You said you were not trading a cross and in fact you are, several crosses to be precise. It is not like oil or corn or gold, that has a pure value based on price discovery alone. If you short the dollar index, you are in fact buying these six crosses against the dollar. EUR 0.576 JPY 0.136 GBP 0.119 CAD 0.091 SEK 0.042 CHF 0.036 And I never tried to change anyones mind including yours, that is why there is strawberry fucking milk. I just tried to help you guys understand what shorting the dollar actually means; buying europe.
Who wants out of the Euro? That is a myth. In fact the Euro has been a shelter for some of the worst countries. Secondly, the loans and real estate may be bad in the eurozone, but the US is in 10x worst shape. European banks had higher loan standards throughout the last boom. They are much more conservative than US banks. Your rhetoric is part of the crowd that wishes the euro would collapse. In France for example, you can't just walk away from your mortgage. Your wages are garnished for life until you have paid the balance.
FULLY AGREED. Depression = dollar ascendancy. Depreciating real assets (commodities, real estate) also bolster bullish dollar sentiment. I don't think selling the USD against foreign currencies has as much potential as it did. The rest of the world appears to be in a mammoth shit storm. Just like at once mighty Great Britain. A better play might be long precious metals from lower levels (supports).
I know what's in the dollar index. That's a red herring. If it makes you feel good to explain it, that's fine. Just don't come on here and try to lecture me.
"As historians begin to assess damage from the credit crunch, Spain will surely be singled out as a classic study for what can go wrong inside a monetary union when the policy requirements of its members become hopelessly misaligned. It is simply not possible to pursue the best interests of every participant when some nations are running trade and fiscal surpluses while others clock up huge deficits." the whole article. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...as-spared-us-a-Spanish-style-catastrophe.html "Had Britain been locked into Europe's single currency, at an exchange rate far higher than today's, there is good reason to believe that we, too, would be suffering double-digit unemployment. You won't read this very often under my byline, but Gordon Brown played a blinder in keeping us out." "Euro Impasse: ECB Stands Divided on What to Try Next Recall, yesterday I told you how European Central Bank (ECB) minister Axel Weber, confused the markets with a statement that left the traders scratching their collective heads. Well, this morning, ECB President Trichet failed to calm the markets, and their fears of a split in the ECBâs governing body is weighing heavily on the euro. Trichet has got to get these split factions of the ECB together⦠In one corner, we have Weber, who does NOT want to see interest rates fall below 1%, and does NOT want Quantitative Easing. In another corner, we have the Greek contingent that wants to see deeper rate cuts, and Quantitative Easing if needed. And then finally we have Austriaâs Nowotny, who agrees with Weber on the rate cuts, but believes that Quantitative Easing makes sense. If Trichet canât get these factions to come together, then the euro is going to get bogged down in all this mess, because nothing will get done." full article- http://www.worldcurrencywatch.com/2009/04/17/we’re-calling-your-“strong-dollar”-bluff-trichet/ The problem with the euro, is you have great members and horrble members and they all want something different, gridlock it will be until nations start to bow out.
Choosing an arbitrary level to simply short (or even leg into a short) doesn't offer the same risk/reward as shorting a clear break of the trend. The DX retraced nearly 100% of its quantitative easing losses, during the course of a 25% global equity rally (which historically has a negative correlation to the DX). 2 major events that should have seen the DX torn to shreds, instead it rallied. Pretty impressive.. Today's close marks 5 consecutive up days for the DX, the last 2 times that happened, we went on to new 52-week highs. Higher highs and higher lows since last July. Just food for thought.
When times are tough, the only thing you can do is rape and pillage third world countries. Oops. Thats us! Never mind.