Short-term Grain Market thoughts..

Discussion in 'Ag Futures' started by Optional, Mar 19, 2010.

  1. Anyone have a 6-week idea for the grain markets (wheat Corn Soy, Oats).
    we have the report on the 31st, the markets remain so choppy and sloppy, all rallies sold, all selloffs being bought...fundamentals suck but the market appears to be unable to break lower (yet)..

    Thoughts welcome
     
  2. How much will it rain the next 6 weeks in the corn belt? Dry weather = softer prices and wet weather should bring firmer prices.
     
  3. Looks like long 2 corn, short 1 bean, basis July, is the trade at around -235...
     
  4. Grain option volatility can be bid-up before the USDA report and then collapse afterwards. The same for cotton too. :eek:
     
  5. JPope

    JPope

    April Forecasts do look wet up here, but hardly anything you can trade off of. I'm sitting tight til the report, but am thinking about a longer term scale in buying program if wheat, corn make new lows.
     
  6. CNBC said this week that cotton planting is down 75% because of cotton farmers shifting to corn due to better pricing. Anyone know if that's true and if it's priced in to the cotton (and corn) markets?

    In another thread a veteran trader was talking about going back to $2 corn! Seems the world is growing corn. South America is a great example.

    I used to grow ag >30 years ago. The way to make money was always to grow what was the lowest price the year before because nobody else would be growing it. Conversely, whatever was highest the year before would go substantially lower because everyone's growing it.

    I'm not qualified to comment on open interest on ag futures because I have only traded them for a few years, but I did notice lots of short interest on March10 corn contract. Is that normal? The May10 contract seems to be doing the same. Is this normal or a deviation from the norm?
     
  7. Crop reports are out today. So the big question, what's priced in?

    Released March 31, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) [USDA]

    Corn Stocks Up 11 Percent from March 2009
    Soybean Stocks Down 2 Percent
    All Wheat Stocks Up 30 Percent

    Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2010 totaled 7.69 billion bushels, up 11 percent from March 1, 2009. Of the total stocks, 4.55 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 11 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.15 billion bushels, are up 10 percent from a year ago. The December 2009 - February 2010 indicated disappearance is 3.23 billion bushels, compared with 3.12 billion bushels during the same period last year.

    Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2010 totaled 1.27 billion bushels, down 2 percent from March 1, 2009. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 609 million bushels, down 7 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 661 million bushels, are up 2 percent from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2009 - February 2010 quarter totaled 1.07 billion bushels, up 10 percent from the same period a year earlier.

    All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2010 totaled 1.35 billion bushels, up 30 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 348 million bushels, up 24 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 1.00 billion bushels, are up 32 percent from a year ago. The December 2009 - February 2010 indicated disappearance is 429 million bushels, up 12 percent from the same period a year earlier.

    Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2010 totaled 55.6 million bushels, up 72 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 34.3 million bushels, are up 83 percent from March 1, 2009. Off-farm stocks totaled 21.3 million bushels, up 57 percent from a year ago. The December 2009 - February 2010 indicated disappearance of 20.1 million bushels is up 65 percent from the same period a year earlier.
    Grain Stocks Agricultural Statistics Board
    March 2010 2 NASS, USDA

    Barley stocks in all positions on March 1, 2010 totaled 157 million bushels, up 22 percent from March 1, 2009. On-farm stocks are estimated at 67.4 million bushels, 52 percent above a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 90.0 million bushels, are 6 percent above March 2009. The December 2009 - February 2010 indicated disappearance totaled 49.0 million bushels, 12 percent above the same period a year earlier.

    Oats stored in all positions on March 1, 2010 totaled 98.0 million bushels, 3 percent above the stocks on March 1, 2009. Of the total stocks on hand, 30.9 million bushels are stored on farms, up 2 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 67.1 million bushels, up 3 percent from the previous year. Indicated disappearance during December 2009 - February 2010 totaled 12.6 million bushels, down 35 percent from the same period a year ago.

    Grain sorghum stored in all positions on March 1, 2010 totaled 175 million bushels, down 15 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 23.7 million bushels, are down 26 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 152 million bushels, are down 13 percent from a year earlier. The December 2009 - February 2010 indicated disappearance from all positions is 75.5 million bushels, down 18 percent from the same period last year.

    Sunflower stocks in all positions on March 1, 2010 totaled 1.21 billion pounds, up 6 percent from March 1, 2009. All stocks stored on farms totaled 604 million pounds and off-farm stocks totaled 602 million pounds. Stocks of oil type sunflower seed are 992 million pounds; of this total, 533 million pounds are on-farm stocks and 459 million pounds are off-farm stocks. Non-oil sunflower stocks totaled 214 million pounds, with 70.7 million pounds stored on the farm and 144 million pounds stored off the farm.
    [end of report summary]

    Any experts on here who can contribute opinions?
     
  8. bighog

    bighog Guest

    Buy NOV 2010, beans, 20 cars, 50 cent stop or if real balls add another 10 cars at that price. :D

    That is a POSITION trade.

    Objective: Up 2 bucks on demand alone ............weather scare that would be gravy.

    Have a wonderful weather mkt and demand driven summer. :) :cool:

    This is my last comment on this position trade. You will know if this was a win or a loss.

    Long time since i was in the bean mkt.

    PS: Might get real brave and do corn also. :eek:

    PSS: The dollar will matter also in this trade, exports are big issue for corn and beans.

    PSSS: I am no expert, just your everyday ES daytrader wanting a bit of fun this summer. Spring fever does this to you. :D

    PSSSSSSSS: The USDA numbers are nortorious for being changed to fit their plans .........so i have not much faith at all in stocks numbers..................demand is what moves grains. Weather mkts are a seperate issue.
     
  9. Il Principe

    Il Principe Guest

    Rain makes grain, so sell it.

    Drier means higher, so buy it.
     
  10. See the date of my post. On that date the market was more concerned about getting the crops planted.
     
    #10     Apr 18, 2010