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Shanghai Composite Rorschach Test

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  2. I see here: Free $$$ for everybody @ zero risk!
     
  3. I see cliff divers.

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  4. You see how you are glad the CPC wouldn't let you short.
     
  5. Oh, I'd short it with everything she's got now.
     
  6. you would have said that 25% into the move when it already looked parabolic the same way as shorting a stock that doubled looks like a good idea until it goes up 10x.
     
  7. I didn't say it back then. Look at the move in the last 12 months, and compare it with the prior 5 years.

    Can you say Parabolic to the nth power?
     
  8. You would go short today and there's a good chance it bubbles 50+% higher. You'd be killed before the roll downwards starts. Just like people were caught on the wrong side too early in 1997, 1998, 1999.
     
  9. Oh really?

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    So, you're going long, right?
     
  10. yep, that consolidation halfway up will not look like the consolidation that marks the halway point when there are another 7 that follow.

    Seriously though, it seems that most of the urban population have opened accounts now, so allowing for the fact that these things go on much longer than commonsense and rationale would suggest, maybe just another 50-100% to go.
     
  11. I'm always long something. So how's your short book been doing lately that you have been building for months now based on your macro analysis?
     
  12. My shorts aren't based on "macro" analysis.

    CELG, TSO and MPEL are great - made some scratch off VLO, and I have high hopes for RSH (sh0orted today).

    My longs have done fine, for the most part, to. I'm not going to complain about my returns. Did you get my memo on JOYG 10 points ago?

    You aren't comfortable shorting specific stocks, are you? I understand.
     
  13. Very few. I'm short a couple biotechs and little small cap tech, but some blew up in my face. I would say across the 10 or so I'm short I'm about break even with a little luck.

    But you're right, I prefer SPY/IWM puts or future shorts depending on the signals I get, just to protect long exposure.

    I admire people who can make consistent money shorting single stocks. It's one of the hardest games to play IMO.
     
  14. Thanks!
     
  15. The mathematics of shorting small caps are appalling - the kind of R:R that you would ignore with a long. They can easily spike up 20% on MM games and 40% is a realistic optimistic target with 100% the maximum. I don't look at longs with that kind of R:R.