I've decided to start posting the videos separately in this thread, rather than in the Focus Report one. Hopefully we'll get some dialogue going.... In this week's edition....... -market still snoozing with lots of weekly "candles lining up, same size bodies" -Looking for any pullback to prior highs to buy gold. <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/O-x1SD1_yZM&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/O-x1SD1_yZM&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object> enjoy, Shadow
Good presentation. I am not a TOS customers and in fact, this is the first time I see your video. It would be a valuable addition to ET to balance mostly useless posts.
Good video, but I do think many do not get why sudden price movements take place like the BOUNCE off the 805's (ES) from Feb the 12th. There is a very major zone of resting inventory in the ES (and S&P Pit contract) at the 800.75 to 797's level. The market had just broke through (on the third attempt) a moderate zone of resting inventory at the 819's to 816's to probe lower. The probe lower to the 805's pretty much cleared out a fair amount of "light" resting inventory in the void between 816's and 800.75 (area between two close support zones). The bounce off the 805's actually makes perfect sense with price rotations near a major support zone "decision" area. Sellers have made a killing since selling the 870's AGAIN for another very profitable bear rally fade. The sellers have just accomplished a major victory, by driving price all the way back to major support while clearing out their held positions with a very nice profit, JUST ABOVE the next major support test. So what is the next move sellers should do (who want to remain in control of this move)? Well, they need to add back new SELL inventory at HIGHER PRICING levels for the run down to retest 800.75 to 797's zone! To score big for any new leg to lower lows for the year, the sellers need to RELOAD their position levels PRIOR to the punch through attempt (and at higher pricing levels). The sellers then step away from selling NEAR a major support area as they cash out their highly profitable positions entered at much higher pricing levels. Now the selllers (who are in TOTAL CONTROL) wait for price to rally and achieve the next area of "resting" inventory which was 834's to 836's zone (where the delta showed a small zone of NET SHORT HOLDERS resting inventory). The "stops" for this small zone of held resting short inventory was up to about 838.50, so this exact level and above is where the sellers then start to RESELL again to build up new HELD SHORT INVENTORY for the next run back to the major area of support (key aspects of Auction Market Theory!). Basically, 838's on up was sold as the new area to retake control of price for the SELLERS next move back to retest a known support zone (where there is A LOT of resting NET LONG HOLDERS inventory from the last time price was at the 800.75 to 797's zone). Sellers, by the end of day Friday, have set their SHORT HELD INVENTORY up perfectly for the trade week ahead to restest a major support zone. With held short inventory from the 838's on up, the sellers had their held NEW short positions about 20 points "IN THE MONEY" by Fridays close. The sellers are now set up with decent inventory levels to take advantage of a major support zone test and then potential RUN TO NEW YEARLY LOWS..... Markets LOVE to trade to SIZE (pockets/zones of resting inventory), so the next significant area of SIZE is at 800.75 to 797's. I think next week we have over an 80% probability of driving price to that zone for the test, so get the popcorn ready.
Nice summary AMT4SWA. I trade trendy moves below your timeframes but find an appreciation of the auction market, how its moving, and where its likely to go or stop adds a great deal to my perception.
Kiwi.....THNX. Yes...I do trades around trades, so I play the longer term in addition to taking advantage of shorter term price movements (like selling some ES as we traded above the 838 level Friday, while also still holding longer term short positions from prior higher price level entries). BTW, brutal open for the ES this evening.....now trading around 811's. We will have to see what the EU session does tonight.....might be at the 800.75 area sooner than I thought!
ES to this point holding just about 11 to 12 points above the key support zone as the EU market session last night was very timid...maybe we will see the action heat up a bit tonight going into the US market open tomorrow. Standing by for a "reactive" day tomorrow.
Firstly, apologies for posting this a day late. Secondly kudos to AMT4SWA for the insights added to the thread so far as well as all you others. I'll try and respond faster from here on in as time permits. Lets keep it going. I'll comment more later, but AMT's points are right on the money to me. Most of my analysis as far as trading minis centers around what I call the "disappointment theory". Simply put, where will the markets trade where there will be the greatest amount of players 'disappointed'. Which you can read as "wrong", "panicked" etc. The identification of pockets of supply as AMT has posited falls right in line with this theory. Anyways I was a minor buyer on Friday and will get some more over Friday's highs here today for a quick pop. The video explains all that and a bit more. <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/scY3P4GKo0w&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/scY3P4GKo0w&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object> Enjoy........ Shadow
We dipped a toe in the water, and it turned out to be freezing cold. Here's how we played last week and some ideas for this coming week. <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/jqHW7hZbcvs&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/jqHW7hZbcvs&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object> enjoy, -shadow