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scalping eurusd

  1. As from ruesday (I live in Europe) I am going to start an eurusd journal to keep me alert and disciplined. I have been working hard on a new system. It use multi-timeframe: 10M, 15M, 30M, 1H, 4H and daily. I mainly use price action in combination of a few indicators. I got ema20, ema50 and ema200 on all my charts + stochastics (14,3,3) + ATR(200). This last one I multiply by 1.5 to calculate my stops.
    The intention of my trading is as I like to call it 'taking the meat in the middle' so I trade mainly with the bigger trend although countertrade can happen. I like to look for divergence setups in good combination of price action. The idea is to aim for zero losses (yes, you read that right , I am not joking :) ). I am using Tickmill UK as my broker which has 0.1 to 0.2 pip spread in eurusd. Sometimes the spread even falls zero. They only ask a tiny commision for this 4 usd per lot. I won't be giving away how I trade exactly so don't ask (it took me over 10 years to finally get it, I am not going to give the keys to the castle away for free). I will be posting my trades though and maybe you will find the reason in your own charts ...
    Somting about me: I used to be index floor trader in Amsterdam about 25 years ago not that that was a real succes. I later become on of floor trader in options and futures trading mostly on feel and some charts. That went initially well untill I lost my touch. Ten years in the financial world I switched to option arbitraging by being a kind of market maker in options quoting one side markets in the DIA in about 20 to 30 series of the first two months. I used an option model that I had programmed in Visual Basic into Excel and kept track with that of my positions and my Greeks keeping things neutral as much as possible I was basicly buying options below theoretical price as I saw it and selling them above theoreticcal price. I had a way of adjusting my guestimate of vol with skew along the series. This was incredibly profitable: I guestimate over 90% of my trades were profitable and I made 500 to over 1000 USD a day. Losing days were no more than 2 a month and even then it was something like 50 USD (this only happened on days when vol used to move in a spectacular way. However that too came to an end when Interactivebrokers started to charge for options cancellations. I used to send about 1000 quotes to the market and of them about 800 were cancellations/price adjustments.
    In 2007 I started to trade eurusd. Not that that has been a great succes so far. Luckily I had the idea of keeping trading small as long as I didn't have a clear set of rules. But even then I bleeded money (in small amounts) over that period. Since then I have been trading eurusd for most of the time (I did a few jobs too in administration). Due to having health problems I won't be working again in the near future and turned my trading eurusd into some kind of hobby. I finally seem to have made some breakthrougs in understanding price action so let's put this a bit to the test in my journal :)
     
  2. My first trade will be to short at 1.1863 with a target of 1.1843.
     
  3. I will be adding to the short @ 1.1858 also with target of 1.1843
     
  4. my guess is we are going straight to 1.1816 on the way down, but this is not about hoping, praying or guessing ... so I need a signal on my 3H chart to confirm this ...
     
  5. So you average into your trades all the time?
     
  6. No, I don't average into a position. Most of the time I have levels I like to watch and where I look for some pattern. Sometimes my signals are confirmed by a second signal and I can add some to my original position. If unsure I might close my position only to open it in the original direction somewhat later. Sometimes I have levels where I might reverse too. It's not easy to explain even if I wanted to provide more details.
    I think of the market as a chaotic system where you can only see so much into the near future. My longer term view is that we are going to 1.1717 but there will be a lot of scalps in between in other wors, it won't be a straight yourney into that level. My guestimate is that will be a level that will take us about 115 pips higher.
     
  7. U r trading on Xmas day?

    Chill out dude.
     
  8. I had my party allready. I live in Europe.
     
  9. I think I am going to refrain from entering my short trade: first I am going to see where the market opens. Apparently Oanda is opening higher than I thought. We'll see ...
     
  10. Learned allready a thing and it didn't cost me: don't stay overnight during weekends.
     
  11. Happy holidays guys. Remember, always close your position before holidays or weekends ;)
     
  12. Should I close my position now at 1.18685 or wait for further bearish trend?
     
  13. I am short 1.1867, targeting 1.1858
     
  14. something I need to adjust: don't take any trades untill 15 minutes into the Japanese session ... the real trade just triggered now @ 1.18706. Target to be determined later on ...
     
  15. ultra slow market makes things harder to read but on the other hand more forgiving of mistakes ... setting target of my short @ 1.18168
     
  16. lesson to self: forget about trading the Asian session ...
     
  17. I added the 20M to my arsenal and got rid of the 10M ... this seems to be still a work in progres in some ways ...
     
  18. finally the proper signal short @ 1.1872
     
  19. I might once again have jumped the gun by being too early and when I examine this closely this probably wasn't a good signal ... time will tell and we live and we learn ...
     
  20. ah, good news, I am getting an add signal
     
  21. it's starting to get funny: my metatrader4 gave a different sell signal from metatrader5 ... however the result seems to the same for both: a sell signal ... slow markets are the hardest to trade ...
     
  22. and another add signal, I am going to take profit @ 1.1816
     
  23. added some more short @ 1.1858
     
  24. I decided to update this journal in the future at the end of each day to avoid too much garbage ...
     
  25. got out be since I read my chart wrong ...
     
  26. lesson of today: drop the multi-timeframe approach and just trade the 15M.
     
  27. Long 1.18709
     
  28. Bro take that profit. It wont go higher at least next 8 hours and you can even consider selling it with sl at today's high.
     
  29. I took profit at 1.1891
     
  30. Excellent !
    Currently, except for longs in UJ and ENZ, holding shorts in EU, EJ, ECHF, GU, GCHF, CADCHF, AU, ACHF, NZU, - all roughly with 10 sl . Lets see...
     
  31. short 1.1882, targeting 1.1864
     
  32. Have just shorted silver and gold too. I will hold my positions next 4~8 hours if they survives. GL bro too :)
     
  33. got out of my short in eurusd for -9 pips, still finetuning things
     
  34. long @ 1.18965
     
  35. Targeting 1.19055
     
  36. reversed to short @ 1.1898
     
  37. stopped out -5
     
  38. back to long @1.1905
     
  39. out be and short 1.1895
     
  40. targeting 1.18644
     
  41. A little loss today cos of silver. I have closed all my positions. Trading silver wasnt a good idea after all.
     
  42. To me, the pullback to 1.1885 looks like it was only temporary. From my perspective, it seems that EURUSD still wants to climb higher.
     
  43. P
    Possibly but it still needs a correction during Asian. Besides, it has made higher high on daily so there is relatively higher chance of reversal in the next session. Well, lets see.

    I have just sold gold, , NZ, AU, Cadjpy,
    and bought Uchf, Gbpchf, Gbpaud based on correction/reveraal possibility

    All with roughly 10 pips sl, I will hold them next 8 to 12 hours if they survive. Lets see
     
  44. Yeah, at 1.1896 I now recognize it as turning south too, at least for the time being.
     
  45. EURUSD was rejected at this level for the second time in the last seven hours.
     
  46. Lets see wthether it breaks yesterday's high. Else it will reverse imho
     
  47. Have sold AUNZD since it has been unable to break the last daily key resist for a few days.
    GbPcad on weekly support but it's a bit too far away from where I want to buy...1.693ish is a bit reasonable price . .
     
  48. EURUSD has been in an uptrend for over two weeks—ever since December 8th. I have absolutely no idea whatsoever when it might turn around. I simply note when it evidences signs of doing so and then trade accordingly. Presently, I see no signs of a reversal occurring anytime soon.
     
  49. closed my short at 1.1887 at close of US session; not more than a few measly pips however. Now short again @ 1.1904
     
  50. When it comes to EURUSD, I am ONLY interested in entering long positions (following pullbacks). For example, when you closed your short position at 1.1887 is when I would have opened a long position, except that there were other trades I found more to my liking. (It was at about that time that I bought AUDJPY, AUDUSD, NZDJPY and NZDUSD, and sold EURAUD.)
     
  51. Yes, I found out were I was wrong ... this is indeed a bull market in eurusd ... I will take that more in regard in the near future. Got out -6 pips
     
  52. I have sold Eu, AU, NZd and gold again with roughly 10 pips sl based on increased reveral probability.
    US dollar has been showing weakness for some reason. I am very surprised given their recent hike since investors will want higher bond return.
     
  53. Stopped out on gold and EU earlier and I have given up on gold. It's super bullish. Holding shorts in NZ, NJ, AU, ANZ, GU, EU, CadJpy, while longs in Uchf, Gbpcad, Gaud, Eurcad. Overall position is losing now. All roughly with 10 pips sl.
     
  54. All US pairs are showing the possibility of either a correction/reversal. Let's see how it goes next 8 hours.
     
  55. short 1.1927 targeting the ema50
     
  56. It is approaching weekly resist area so substantial reverasal may not come until it touches that area. I just hope to see a good correction/bear move today
     
  57. All US pairs .. on.H4 if they stay next 4 H ranging, that will likely to form a morning/evening star. Lets see
     
  58. yes I was too early with my short, but I am getting the real short signal 1.1932 now
     
  59. Yeah...going into euro session, hopefully, we have already seen today's top for EU. Besides, EU didnt break 1.193 level. The second attempt with higher high have failed to reach 1.194 level. If that stands, it will be a valid double top for a daily correction (bear move).

    I will hold my positions for next 8hours if they survive. Lets see
     
  60. US dax is still showing weakness and has created new bottom. However, if the opposite pairs doesnt make much move next 2 hours, we are likely to see reversal.
     
  61. got out -3, better wait for London open ...
     
  62. My previous position in EU was stopped out again. I wont try anymore in US pairs in the current H4 bar. My cross pair positions are doing better than US pairs...US dollar has been very disappointing so far and looks like they are approaching daily/weekly key areas. I will consider trading once they touch them
     
  63. NZUS also got stopped out. Currently only GU is slightly in losing position but daily key resist area nearby, that position is vey vulnerable. Au has alreafy touched the weekly key resist area so there is less prob it will rise much more. NZD, EU all nearby weekly/daily key areas. But US dollar seems to be gradually gaining strength. Lets see
     
  64. I am short now @ 1.1940
     
  65. Just be careful, EU could bounce off at 1.1932 ish. GU is still bullish as well. I will wait for the next H4 bar. GL bro !
     
  66. Took profit @1.1931
     
  67. 15M could turn into a reverse divergence
     
  68. long 1.19314 the reverse divergence
     
  69. hourly pinbar could give some force upwards.
     
  70. added to long @ 1.1951
     
  71. Smart move!
     
  72. Another smart move.
     
  73. got out @ 1.18569 ... nice day overall
     
  74. This is not "scalping" --- Scalping is trading for minimum ticks only.
     
  75. I am long EURUSD at 1.1941.
     
  76. You must have meant 1.19569.
     
  77. Only 6 pips of profit for now...

    ScreenHunter_6842 Dec. 28 17.42.jpg

    I will probably reenter a long position after the pullback.
     
  78. yes, of course, you are right about that
     
  79. buy-stop 1.19485
     
  80. A good day to trade US pairs. GU, NZU on daily, EU, AU on weekly key resist areas. Usdchf on weekly support area too. I expect US dollar to gain strength today. Hold long in Usdchf and short in AU. Others I am waiting
     
  81. I am targeting 1.1980, it will probably go slightly higher but I got to leave here for an hour, so better play this safe ... I got a sell short order in @ 1.1983
     
  82. For EU, that's where I am looking as well :)
     
  83. Have just opened a long in UJ (just touched daily support area) and a short in GU (near 10 pips away so tight sl 50 points in case it tries to cross the daily key resist area). Waiting for NZ, 20 pips away...
     
  84. Have just opened a short in EU at the top sl 50 points. I will give a go
     
  85. I would be really suprised if that might work, way too early imho
     
  86. Agreed. My position in GU stopped out but it has just touched the daily key resist area so I have opened a short at higher level with sl 10 pips. Having said, Dollar still is looking weak atm...I hope not though.

    Have opened a short in NZUS at the top too
     
  87. If all my positon survives next 1 hour, I hold my positions until the market closes this year :) a strong reveral is expected.
     
  88. Dam, the US dollar is still weak. Usdchf (which I use to proxy for US dollar index) - stopped out. I have closed all my positions in a little profit.

    I will not trade today anymore. Happy new year guys :)
     
  89. Happy new year to everybody too ! I am still busy however: took profit at 1.1980 and shorted 1.1982.
     
  90. got stopped out for -5
     
  91. long now from 1.1991, probably not for too long though
     
  92. messing about but learning stuff ... reversed to short @ 1.19895
     
  93. Targeting 1.1971
     
  94. pfew, last hour was rough ... got stopped out on that bad entry and reshorted 1.2005
     
  95. out -4 pips
     
  96. long 1.2008
     
  97. out be
     
  98. short 1.2008 because of hourly evening star
     
  99. lessons of the day: be very carefull when going countertrend, don't anything below 30M to trade ... hopefully better start of the day than the way it ended tradingwise ...
    See you next year
     
  100. You have been shorting EUR/USD, mostly.
    You mentioned in your opening post that your intention is to 'take the meat in the middle'.
    Why are you running counter market when the market is moving higher?

    If I had a system/strategy that was getting me short in a long market, I'd be concerned.
    Does this make sense?
     
  101. Sorry to hear about this mate! I hope things improve with your health.
     
  102. yes, it does, I had plenty to time to think about my stuff the last few days ... I am not on the right path with what I wanted to do ... so I will stop scalping and let this be a swing trading journal from now on ... hopefully with better results ...
    I'll be moving to higher timeframes for that: 2H/3H/4H and daily
     
  103. Will you be using the same system/strategy for swing trading as you did for scalping?

    What did you want to do?
    What are you trying to do?
     
  104. What is this based on?

    If this is your long-term view, will you continue to be short market as it rises?
    Is it also possible that we could continue to 1.25 or even 1.30 without ever seeing 1.1717?

    I'm only considering this because you are now swing focused.
     
  105. No I departed with that long term view in light of my new info of the bigger charts. I see us going to 1.1941-ish (so I will short the 2nd of Januari) where I will go long and my really long term view is that we are going to 1.2356 ...
     
  106. Okay, thanks!
    I will be following along with interest.

    All the best in 2018 with your trading!
     
  107. All the best to you too for 2018 !
     
  108. I took some more time to go over my charts and backtest hypothesises ... seems I was once again on the wrong track with things ... but I found a solution after long pondering about things ... I kinda integrated Elliot wave thinking into my price action on occasions ... I also will look better for divergence and hidden divergence into my trading.
    Thus far what ma I seeing here: this kinda looks like somewhat of an intermediate top:I got 1H morning star in overbought stoch, that rolled into 2H ib break in overbought stoch, the 4H looks like it will break during the Japanese session and I am watching curiously what's going to happen to the 6H chart. My guess is we might see an evening star there too. If that last thing is the case I will have to resolve to my 'Eliot Wave'-thinking (in lack of a better name) and my target of 1.1941-ish will become void; instead I will have to use the waves in stochastics to tell me when to get out. That is unless we get an 8H engulfer at level then I will have a fixed target again for when to reverse to long ...
     
  109. Overall the picture is not too clear looking at bigger chartframes (3H/4H/D) so I will refrain from shorting this since we are in overbought but overbought can last a long time ... better see some clear setup before going against this.
     
  110. This is probably a short countertrade so I will take the short after all and take profit at ema50 on hourly
     
  111. Which one are you?
    upload_2018-1-1_11-30-3.png
    https://www.vocabulary.com/articles/chooseyourwords/objective-subjective/


    Imagine for a moment that you call a short-term top in EUR/USD based on your current assessment.
    How do you know for sure that it wasn't something else which caused the top? Something you hadn't considered or have maybe never considered?
    Could it be possible that even though you called the trade, it wasn't for the reasons you thought?
    You will likely say that it doesn't matter because I profited!
    But...what about over a 6 month, 12 month or an even longer span of time?

    To be long-term profitable, you need to be objective. The trader who is objective will take your money.

    I'll give you an example of both:
    Subjective: The 4 hour chart gives the best entry signals for swing trading.
    Objective: The 4 hour chart is a chart based on fluid price broken into 4 hour intervals.

    And another...
    Subjective: Multi time frame trading produces the best results.
    Objective: Multi-time frame trading is based upon analysing price on various time frames.

    One more...
    Subjective: I do not need to consider fiscal or monetary policy because it is traded into the price. Considering price alone is enough.
    Objective: Fiscal and monetary policy influence price on a forward basis.
     
  112. yes, you nailed it exactly: I'm strugling with my emotions in the proces of finding an objective approach. The latter is harder than I thought it would be. And I seem to be taken away by my emotions further than I would like it to be. Since I noticed that problem I tried to put my brain into 'restmode' by analysing the daily and weekly gold chart. I seem to be easily pretty good at that and then returned to my eurusd. Seems the smaller in timeframes I go the worse it seems to get swept away by emotions. However I wrote some objective rules down from my backtesting in gold that should help me. I see gold going past the last highs by the way. Maybe I am trying to become Jack of all trades too much instead of master of one. The future should soon tell me if I am getting on the objective road or that I am still messing about in subjectivity ...
     
  113. You have a humble attitude and that will serve you well!
    Pride and arrogance have no place in trading.

    Could you share your rules with me?

    You will know immediately!
    The last thing you want is to test with real money whether you are subjective or objective.
     
  114. what I basically like to do is looking for five patterns:
    first being: morning stars and evening stars on 1H or 2H in overbought oversold against the main trend that roll into bullish or bearish engulfers that will take me to the 50ema of the engulfers timeframe can be 3H/4H or 8H.
    second being: morning stars and evening stars with the trend on 3H or 4H where sto has hidden divergence which will take me three levels up/down in going with the main trend
    third being: engulfers with sto diverging on the 3H or 4H which will take me three levels up/down in going with the main trend and three waves up/down in going against the main trend.
    fourth being: key-reversals on the 3H or 4H where the bigger timeframe is diverging which will take me three level up/down in going with the main trend.
    fifth being an engulfer @ ema20 going with the trend of the 8H on the 3H or 4H. I need a morning star evening star to get me out on the 1H or 2H.

    Not too sure if I explain this all too well but this is what I am looking for.

    It was a good idea to make me formulate things ... my head is becoming clearer again ...

    Now how does this look into practice in eurusd: I see the evening star in 1H timeframe where we have ib at level on the 2H and 4H but we need more down for it to roll into an 8H bearish engulfer which then should bring us to the 8H ema50 situated around 1.905.
     
  115. Entered a long position @ 1.2009
     
  116. I was wondering the same thing.

    And as for swing trading and position trading, they make little sense for me personally in that I’ve found that if I can do a decent job as a day trader reading the market and interpreting which direction price is likely to go, there are not a lot of reasons why I shouldn’t be walking away from each round of sessions with more money in my account than was there before the sessions began.

    For me, it’s all about knowing which way price is headed, what is the average range it will span before reversing direction, where it is located in relation to past support and resistance, and the relative impact of all three factors on price as they interact with one another.

    Even if price does fly past my take profit targets from time to time, I’d much rather settle for conservative gains than sit around hour after hour after hour watching my positions alternate between profit and loss as they did so often when I attempted to swing trade.

    From my point of view, better that I should wait for a pullback, collect a few pips, wait for the next pullback, collect a few more pips, and continue doing this over and over so that by the end of each round of sessions, I end up with a respectable amount of gains, even if the overall market essentially went nowhere.

    For example, two and a half hours into this current round of sessions, I've collected a total of about 24 pips. That might not seem like much to some, but for me, that would be enough to call it a day depending on how many lots I was trading.

    ScreenHunter_6867 Jan. 01 16.29.jpg
     
  117. Short 1.2010
     
  118. That's why I don't like Madam Mae's strategy; you entered when European market is not open, and you have to trade in anticipation of a long signal.
     
  119. reversed to long @ 1.2020
     
  120. strange ....
    what are you guys doing??!?!
     
  121. Trying to find a method that works for me ... I should idd restrict my trading to the european markets and at this point in time trade with the trend.
     
  122. I should have gone long though @1.2015 ... woulda shoulda coulda ...
     
  123. My ignorance is vast, so I’m not clear on what about 99% of what you wrote here means, but I do find it absolutely fascinating how someone with experience as an index floor trader, as a floor trader in options and futures, and as a pseudo/quasi market maker in options; with ten years experience trading EURUSD and breakthroughs in understanding price action, seems to be struggling so with a plan to “trade mainly with the bigger trend.” Best of luck to you though, my good man—I do feel for you!
     
  124. yes, you (and others) finally got the message through: trade with the bigger trend ... I adjusted my setups for this ... as a former market maker in options I was de facto a mean-reversing trader ... that however doesn't work in directional trading unless on occasion as an exception to the rule ... but I got my stochastics divergence for that and shouldn't try to go against the trend untill that one shouts at me ...
     
  125. this kinda of feedback (although not really expecting it) is the reason I started this journal ... so far I am satisfied in that part and appreciate it ...
     
  126. another big mistake I made over the years was trying to trade on tf's below the hourly ...
     
  127. That's interesting.

    I love trading off one-minute charts, even though I’ve read again and again that this is impossible to do (“you're just trading noise” they say), but I find that it enables me to: (1) time precise entries and exits that get me in and out at the initial formation of trend reversals; (2) maximize my gains, (3) avoid head fakes/false positives; and (4) resist the temptation to try catching “falling knives.”
     
  128. yes, I heard other people trading these smaller tf's with succes, so I do know it should be possible but it's not for me, I seem to be losing my senses when I go too small in tf and getting impulsive/emotional in my trades and not in a good way.
     
  129. Yeah, my philosophy is "to each his (or her) own."
     
  130. (To each their own.) *runs away*
     
  131. The way my charts 'feel' is like they are gathering strength for a big upmove ... we'll see ...
     
  132. I will however take profits at 1.2080 that would be the ABCD target
     
  133. sold GU at 1.353 level sl 1.3545, sold EU at 1.203 sl 1.3036 ; bought Uchf at 0.9733 sl 0.9724 and bought Ujpy at 112.65 sl 112.54...so all roughly 10 pips sl...lets see
     
  134. added to long in euro @ 1.2036
     
  135. I am out of Us pair trading already with some loss. Agree that US dollar is too weak.
     
  136. Like some people said repeatedly to me: just trade with the trend :) I had to learn that truth the hard way ... Trend is clearly up in eurusd on all my timeframes ...
     
  137. Hang in there!

    Touching again on subjectivity/objectivity.
    Is there 'edge' in breaking fluid price up into various time intervals?
    Why would there be 'edge' in doing that?

    What is driving EUR/USD higher?
     
  138. I probably could trade of 1H only ... but having 2H/3H/4H on helps my overall reading of charts more clearly ... that would be my edge in having multiple time intervals ...

    don't know what is driving eurusd higher but there is a clear bullmarket on all of my charts ...
     
  139. Also having multiple tf's on helps in sticking to my strategy ... 'like the proverb says: it's the sitting on my hands that made me money' ...
    but there is more to it, when the trade rolls along the timeframes it can help in setting targets when I might have a countertrade ...
     
  140. I think we will go to 1.2350-ish that would be the monthly ema200 ... but I am purely sticking to daytrading ...
     
  141. 2017 was not a good year for the US dollar, although people believed at the start of the year that the opposite would occur.

    However, economic conditions were not seen as the cause of the decline in the value of the US dollar as political considerations appeared to dominate the scene.

    It seems as if the market is now looking for reasons for the US dollar to decline, and this will create an underlying softness in the market throughout 2018.

    Looking forward to 2018, my impression is that the market favors US dollar weakness and will find any reason it can for moving the value of the US dollar lower.

    John M. Mason
     
  142. Interesting view, yes everybody and their dog were expecting parity and that probably got some people overextended in their long view of the dollar ... monthly ema200 will be interesting ...
     
  143. Sold everything at 1.2080 ... my gutfeel says this isn't the end of the bullmove but got to see the dentist this afternoon so got no time to babysit this so I took the 'logical exit'.
     
  144. extra lesson of the day: trust your charts more than you trust your gutfeel ... in fact I would quite 'gutted' for not having sold this by now ...
     
  145. 1.2083 is the target of the 3H ABCD projection, if hourly forms an inside bar here, I might still buy the breakout for that since I got some time left for my dentist ...
     
  146. Imagine for a moment that reading a chart has nothing to do with being successful. Absolutely nothing.
    What then?
    You know those data sheets a mechanic prints out that give readings on engine performance? Are you saying that by reading those data sheets you know how an engine works?

    You don't think it is critical to find out why EUR/USD is moving higher? Or what is driving it higher?

    How much do you actually know about the foreign currency market?
     
  147. Excellent!
    You've talked about the 'quote' currency. What about the 'base' currency? What about the other leg of trade?
     
  148. actually I don't think it's critical to find out WHY the EUR/USD is moving or what is behind that move ... I trust my technical reading much more ... but I do have a broad sense of what is happening fundamentally speaking in the markets ... that should suffice, the charts will be telling the rest to me ... that's how I see it ...
     
  149. there are often many things to take into account fundamentally speaking and that can lead to information/interpretation overload where in the end you don't know your head from your feet anymore ...
    the inside bar didn't materlialise here, forming an evening star instead but without the divergence in stochastics it just means nothing (at least not to short) it means more that the bulls lost some steam here after they reached that 1.2080 level ... not unexpectantly.
     
  150. They say that persistence is the key to success.
    That though depends purely on what one is pursuing and how stubborn one is in pursuing it.

    Imagine on getting to the castle you throw those keys into the door and it doesn't unlock. Just imagine.

    How long is the long way round?
     
  151. I am going to try something here: buy stop @ 1.20707 targeting 12 pips profit, can't say exactly why but it just feels right ... it's the level of the downbar of the evening star is the best I can come up with ... some bears will probably have put their stop there so that might lite things a bit up ...
     
  152. if my buy stop doesn't get hit within the next hour I might look for something else to go long again.
     
  153. You said previously...
    Now you're saying this...
    It just 'feels' right?
    What does that mean exactly?
     
  154. after years of staring at charts you develop some kinda gut feel for charts ... but HOWEVER it's really really important that you can back that 'feel' up with something 'objective' or that 'feel' might turn on you really hard ... I gues my feeling was backed up by my explanation ... we 'could' however be once again trying to build an inside bar on the hourly here, so I might take the top at the next hour ... if the trade doesn't emerge by then I will be off to the dentist.
     
  155. a nice example of gutfeel was the fact that I 'knew' gold was really bullish because of the force which which it had turned from the recent low ... only later I saw it was a daily key-reversal with weekly oversold with stochastics forming a hidden divergence on the weekly ... I see gold going to at least 1394 USD and advised friends to buy some gold at the start of this new year. The entry price was 1303.75 USD a few hours later and gold is allready almost 10 USD in the positive side.
     
  156. Putting gut feel aside.
    What can you tell me about EUR/USD that is factual? What I mean by this is that whoever you ask on planet earth, they will all give you the exact same answer.
     
  157. Well what can I say about euro you most likely mean since we previously had a good explanation about USD weakness. Why would I think euro might be strong in the near future: the economy is improving here and Europe will probably stop their QE. If the economy grows stronger inflationary worries might pick up and the ECB might resort to their first short term increase in years. I know this might sound all a bit hypothetical for the near future but markets tend to discount things.
     
  158. the 1H inside bar point has become moot here but it could still produce a key-engulfer with the trend here on the hourly.
     
  159. One thing that hasn't been mentioned here is the fact that Trump might actually like a weak dollar since that's good for export + prices of foreign goods will be more expensive ... all in the spirit of 'making America great again' ...
     
  160. Very nice!
    Okay, so what should you give more attention to:
    Eurozone member states inflation/core inflation and ECB or your technical system?
    What is likely to drive EUR pricing forward out of the two above?

    No, this is exactly how you do it! Do not underestimate this!
    You run scenarios!
    The market is always trying to 'price in'. At times the market gets it wrong or misses and then they will have to 'reprice'.

    What you're trying to assess is where the greater probability for price movement is, on a forward basis.
    What I mean by this for example is, for every 1 tick down it will be met with 3 ticks up on average because of x, y and/or z.
    Or, for every 1 tick up it will be met with 3 ticks down on average because of x, y and/or z.

    Below is a graph of EUR FX futures market through 2017.
    Note how the market has been 'Net long' since March. It has actually been trending higher all year!
    upload_2018-1-2_14-50-28.png
    The chart above is only data, that is all it is. It is most certainly not the 'Holy Grail'!
    If you can find out what is driving the data, then you can trade forward.
     
  161. Yes, I really appreciate your help in making me think things through. I am most gratefull for that. You really are making me clarify points and how I see trading. However there are many ways to skin this cat.
    The repricing risk is especially great around ECB intrest rate changes and the speech afterwards and at NFP so you don't want to be in the markets around these times.
    However I think it's almost impossible to outguess fundamentals (or 'funnymentals' ;) ) and that's the reason one should stick to the technicals as they arise ... so it's not really necessary to find out what's driving the data as long as your charts make sense at least imho.
    And I am aware that this is almost heresy to some people ... but that's the way I see it ...
    Off to the dentist now ... with a bit of luck I am back in a big hour.
     
  162. LOL

    Good luck at the dentist anyway!
     
  163. But price is NOT fluid. For example, vds16 wrote that he "Sold everything at 1.2080." Note that the exchange rate is now back down below 1.2040.

    EURUSDM5.png

    Thank goodness he locked in his profits when he had the chance or those 40 pips would have vanished like smoke—but now he can reenter a long position with those gains safe in hand AND collect a few dozen more.
     
  164. seems I didn't miss too much at the dentist and all too right you are, I woulda haven been cursing big time if I had missed that profit opportunity ... looking for a new long idd but waiting for the right setup to come along ... the best of the day could be over ... unless something happens around ema20 on hourly
     
  165. Fluid meaning constantly moving (except weekends and daily rolls of course).

    The fact that price went from 1.2080 back to 1.2040 means it IS fluid.

    He can't answer my question so maybe you would like to?
     
  166. well, I am back ... my guess would be that the bigger the timeframe the bigger the players that are active on that timeframe ... at least that was what I had been told by another trader ... kinda makes sense to me
     
  167. What happened with this?
     
  168. looking back I probably should have shorted that evening star on hourly: all my other timeframes were overbought ... well too bad, I had to leave (and tomorrow again I will have to miss the entire NY session).
     
  169. putting in a buy stop at 1.20424
     
  170. got hit and sold it for 1 pip profit
     
  171. No.

    If I'm a large EUR trader and I do 1 yard, does it matter what time frame you're looking at?
    No, because regardless of time frame, I have done 1 yard LOL
     
  172. I though we were going to see a pinbar and anticipated this a few minutes before the hour ... not such a bright idea it turned out to be but no loss
     
  173. ok, you got me laughing there ... you don't buy 1 yard at market like that without it not showing somehow on the charts
    my broker in the best case only let's me buy 100 lots at best :( lol
     
  174. but yes, what I heard was most likely wrong
     
  175. well, that was it for me for today ... thanks for the moral support both of you and cya hopefully tomorrow.
     
  176. I left it open while I was at the dentist, seemed too good not to let go but it didn't get triggered.
     
  177. You're missing the point.

    Firstly, I did not say I do 1 yard at market.
    I said: I do 1 yard.

    That 1 yard will go through irrespective of the time frame you're monitoring.
    Therefore, there is no edge in chart time frames.

    Can you not understand that?
     
  178. I do understand: there is an edge in chart time frames as the bigger trades will show up no matter what ! I finally got that, that's why trend trading works ... :)
     
  179. my next target should be around 1.2110 (third wave, actually slightly higher at 1.2114: but I learned my lesson from today, you don't want your targets to be too exact).
     
  180. The bigger trades show up on ALL time frames.
    Therefore time frame is irrelevant!

    This is exhausting lol
    Okay, come back to this later on in time, maybe a few years from now. There may be a chance you'll understand then. When you're ready, you're ready.

    All the best and enjoy your trading!
     
  181. yes, I know it's a metaphor not to be taking litterally.
     
  182. I'll be back in an hour and a half, a man has got to eat too ;-)
     
  183. No, I can’t answer your question either.

    If fluid means constantly moving, I don’t understand what “breaking fluid price up into various time intervals” means.

    If it means using charts in different time frames, that would not seem to me to be “breaking fluid price up into various time intervals,” but rather, viewing the same fluid price at various levels of detail.

    Of course, the “edge” that comes with having greater detail is that you have more information, which means you can make better informed decisions.

    But as I’ve written in the past, my ignorance is vast, so I’m probably clueless as to the point you are actually making here, and am probably still responding in a way that has nothing to do with what you are actually communicating in your posts.
     
  184. I don't really think you gave him a bad answer :)
    on one thing I have to totally agree he's making several points in to his posts one of the bigger ones being: trade with the trend.
     
  185. if we have three hour ib, I will take the breakout to the upside with a target of 1.2110 and will move my stop to breakeven after it's 15 pips in the plus. With Tickmill I have got a program that can easily do just that. Really satisfied with that broker and the leverage they will let you use ;-)
     
  186. I am somewhat pyramiding into my trade here, I'll stop buying at 1.2065 and get out at 1.21103
     
  187. That pyramiding wasn't such a smart move and I shoud leave that practice behind me ... got punished for it since all my added euro positions almost all got stopped out ... just stupidity
    and I was even lucky I didn't get a margin call on my big position ... that would have been twice as stupid
    three times as stupid was trying to pull this kinda stuff of after NY close and before Asian session
     
  188. one hour and two hour charts are showing pinbars on them, so might like to try the adding game again till 1.2075 ... like they say: it takes courage to be a pig ;-)
     
  189. not exactly nice pinbars but it's got more or less the feel of it ...
     
  190. 2H now starting to look like a flying key-reversal coming from inside bar level (more or less)
     
  191. I lost about 15% of my account trying to pull of this pyramiding game earlier on so all in all it's still reasonable, getting the stop hit on my main position wouldn't have been funny anymore however. I am still up fourfold from the level I started the day with ...
     
  192. damn, my disaster stop got hit, why am I even trading the Asian session ? Note to selve disregard chart patterns formed in between US late session and start of Asian session.
    No only up 50% for the day anymore ...
     
  193. I found the solution to the riddle kelly was asking before: the aggregate more money leaves traces on the bigger timeframes ... so it's a methaphor with actually some truth in it (like most metaphores)
     
  194. Late US sessions are only signals to get out of a trade, not ones to start a trade ... this should come in handy as this will leave me a 7 hour window to actually sleep somewhat.
     
  195. short 1.2029 off the combo of 2H chart and 1H chart with a target at 2H ema20 because of the way stochastics is turning on both charts. stochastics on 3H is hooking somewhat too, but I'll just take the easy meat in the middle, we could however go for the 3H ema20
     
  196. the more likely target however is ema50 on the 1H so I'll set my buy there and will have to change my projected abcd target for the upmove
     
  197. that's three black crows on hourly and I entered the trade when the second crow rolled over into the start of the third black crow.
     
  198. target on the following upmove will be around the round number or 1.21
     
  199. this could roll into three black crows on the 2H tf, this would set target way lower at 2H ema50 with an upfollowing move of around 80 pips.
     
  200. just was thinking of something: if your stoploss is hit, the market is tellling you something, you lack either reading skills or misinterpreted something in a big way ... you should see this as a punishment on your way to become a better trader and you got a price to pay. That's way I am trying to run this journal without ever getting my stops hit ... at least that was my initial intention.
     
  201. and another stopout ... do not try to trade late NY or Asia is the lesson ... I paid the piper
     
  202. long 1.2055 target of 1.2110 in mind
     
  203. Are you going to follow the trend today? I will do so since January is the month that currency pairs usually set new high or new low for the year
     
  204. yes, I just added a bit at 1.2058, I will add some more later on, I got 1.2110 in mind as a target
     
  205. three soldiers on 1H, engulfer up on 2H, this should roll all the way up to 6H
     
  206. my disaster stop got hit: no trading before london opening is the message clearly send to me
     
  207. extreme elation after a winning trade is very bad for trading.
     
  208. that was not the problem here ... I got the wrong idea price action would really work outside london opening hours too, it doesn't but occasionally things do work out (like yesterday where I milked a signal from before London open); I just got lucky. Luck should have nothing to do with trading. The market told me to interpret my system differently.
     
  209. my trading hours are from 09:00 till 17:30 CET from now on ... trading outside these hours is just gambling ... you might as wel take your money to the casino and play Russian roulette with it ...
     
  210. damn my back aches from all the stupid mistakes I have made the last 24hours ... Geoge Soros had the same problem: when he was in a wrong position his back started to ache ;-)
     
  211. Your post is loaded with subjectivity. Toxic amounts!

    It would seem that cvds16 has been putting this to the test since he started.
    He is definitely letting the world know there is no edge in time frames. Or patterns within time frames for that matter.
    I have already debunked this argument.
    1 yard.
     
  212. What?
    No.
    1 yard.
     
  213. The market told me to interpret my system differently?!
    What does that mean?

    Are you not gambling between 09:00-17:30 CET also?
     
  214. What does a disaster stop out cost you (%)?
     
  215. ha, that cost's about 60%, I got hit twice.
    Trading at 500 times leverage makes you well aware that you have indeed misinterpreted things ... but let's not dwell on the past: I see a trendday coming up with the start of hourly hidden divergence coming up ...
     
  216. I am trading a nanoaccount so nothing really bad can happen to me ... haven't traded with real money in the last seven years anymore since I didn't have a proper methodology
     
  217. Unbelievable!
     
  218. but true lol no pain, no gain and no sweat no glory
     
  219. Financially you mean?
    Don't you want to 'make' money though?

    Are you implying that you have a profitable methodology now?
     
  220. the answer is yes to that last question ... I have a system now and it restricts itself to the hourly ... I just got to be patient for the right setups to occur ... I do want to make money but 'wanting to' isn't enough as such ... you need an airtight method for it to be on an steadily and continous basis.
    I had several hypothesis and with all your questions you helped me clear my head and learned how to express these 'would be could be' scenario's better untill I finally can say I have a system. That wasn't the case last week ;-) What better way to start a new year :)
     
  221. I'll leave you to your experiments.
    All the best today!
     
  222. I am now adjusting some thing into my method: only trade the combo of either 1H or 3H setups
     
  223. 1H or 3H for scalping?Oh,man!!!...
     
  224. I am not scalping anymore; I am intraday swingtrading.
     
  225. Long EURUSD @ 1.2015
     
  226. fucking mad at myself for missing the obvious short at 08:00 CET while stochastics AND ema20 was clearly showing it. I will go long at the end of this hour if it engulfs (no more jumping the gun with signals; that burned me allready twice today :((( )
     
  227. I don't get easily mad but this time I am disgusted by myself ... pure idiotic trading at it's best :( Went long 1.2023 targeting 1.2150. Kelly rightly called it 'experiments', nothing less it is ... when will I learn to stick to the charts at hand
     
  228. trigger happy Madam Mae trading strategy?
     
  229. something like that I am afraid :(
     
  230. This is how I analyse. you might agree / disagree and that's up to you.

    You need to look at big picture.
    the day to profit from eurusd was on 29 dec and 2 Jan.
    If you failed to profit massively (say > 50 pips) from these 2 days, you are taking unncessary risk by trading on 3 Jan.

    On 3 Jan, there is a reversal down signal at 304pm, UTC+8.
    you can get decent reward / risk ratio of 2:1, ie about 25 pips but I doubt you can stretch target profit.

    Also if you look at the whole European market on 3 Jan, not many futures are moving except eurex btp and energy futures.
     
  231. I have three hourly charts open and even then I am missing that short signal, it's unbelievable :(
     
  232. You have three x1 hourly charts open?
    I would have to define this as sheer stupidity cvds16.

    Are you not long?
     
  233. Locked in my profit @ 1.2026 and am now looking to scalp a second round of pips by going long @ 1.2010.
     
  234. Exited this time @ 1.2022
     
  235. That's why I don't like Madam Mae trading strategy.

    It is not gurellia trading where you quickly enter and exit to earn just one or two minuscule
    ticks.
    It is counter trend trading with poor understand of trend analysis.

    Instead of earning tens of ticks trading with trend,
    she teaches how to earn one or two ticks trading against trend.

    When the trend is down, she teaches you to long and long eurusd repeatedly.
    It might blow the account soon.
     
  236. The way my charts read, as of today, EURUSD’s day-to-day trend has just turned bearish.
     
  237. long 1.2019 3H ib break with hidden divergence
     
  238. I guess you always can't be right ;-)
     
  239. I don't like Madam Mae trading strategy.

    You ended up being very trigger happy even when there is no signal.
     
  240. these are my new trading rules:
    • 3H sto is the trend, take 1H signal with the trend as in sto hook with engulfer
    • 3H ema50 is the bigger trend however if 3H 123 reversal you need 3H signal to go against it stoch and in line with the bigger trend
    • when 3H and 1H are both overbought oversold then you only need 1H signal against the trend as in counterengulfer or morning star / evening star till ema20 on hourly
     
  241. things should start to accelerate to the upside: it's getting clear now too for the weak readers of hourly charts.
     
  242. I've build an algo how to profit off these kinda situations by adding to my 500x leverage. I won't refrain myself from buying untill 3H sto reaches overbought. My algo tells which kinda size I got to by regarding my free margin and my margin I am allready using + the size of my adds.
     
  243. I am done buying adds to my position; so far I have quintupled my account today ... so not complaining about anything anymore .. this was a clear 3H divergence ... according to my theory we should now see three waves up, but they will all be scalpable ...
     
  244. seems I have to adjust my algo for adding in the case of red figures, got hit on small adding size but I got the solution allready: stop adding the last two hours before red figures.
     
  245. at the end of this hour I will be back to the adding game
     
  246. True, but I trust my charts, and at the time, the readings were indeed bearish. Nonetheless, as of two or three hours ago, they once again turned bullish, so from my point of view, the pair is at a decision point. EURUSD has now formed a double top, so where is the day-to-day trend going from here? Will the pair continue to make significant new highs (not like today’s) or will it fall? I suppose I will find out in the next couple of days or so, but for now, I’m remaining neutral.
     
  247. we are going all session today ... it's an extreme case of sentiment ... my only advice is not to short but instead to look for possibilities to go long ... I am adding once again to my nano-account
     
  248. my target is 1.2144 or close everything at market close.
     
  249. blind leading the blind strategy ?!
     
  250. In my case, I am definitely NOT going long (the time to do that from my perspective was back at 1.2021). This exchange rate has ALREADY hit my first level of resistance at 1.2089, with my second level following relatively closely at 1.2097 and my ULTIMATE level of resistance at 1.2140, so I’m just going to watch for now, and if anything, I will short the pair when my trigger lines give me the go ahead.
     
  251. you got something that works for you; so don't try to be me ... I see good intentions in what you write ... good luck to you with your trading in 2018
     
  252. BTW, my target is 1.2044 but I have all my orders in to take profit at 1.2040
     
  253. I got the signal giving me the okay to short EURUSD (if I wished to do so) at 1.2071.
     
  254. like I wrote somewhere else: this is most likely just European traders pairing gains ...
     
  255. 1.2144...1.2140
     
  256. yes, idd I know ;-) you don't want to milk that last pip
     
  257. I went ahead and entered a short position @ 1.2068.
     
  258. Ha, well I am buying ultra-aggresively according to my algo at every 0.0005 point.
     
  259. I will be doing that untill the big figure since tomorrow is another trend day. Be carefull with your shorts is all I can say ... good trading !
     
  260. price action kissing the ema20 on hourly to get the last weak longs out.
     
  261. got out of all my long around 1.2059 ... shoulda sold everything at 23:00 CET at market close ... well we live and we learn ...
     
  262. short 1.2061 for 10 pips
     
  263. looking to reverse @ 1.2050-ish
     
  264. reversed @ 1.2049
     
  265. ?!?!?!?!!
     
  266. That is why I hate Madam Mae trading strategy.
     
  267. Took profit @ 1.2049
     
  268. I bought 4 pips too early, but I should be allright: stochastics on hourly is diverging that should give us somewhat of a trend day.
     
  269. still finetuning things here, but my rulesbook is starting to improve
     
  270. I got a buy algo running till the close of this hour
     
  271. I am now waiting for confirmation that a possible reversal to the north, which currently seems to be developing here at 1.2047, is indeed the real thing before I go ahead and commit to buying into a long position.
     
  272. [​IMG]
     
  273. [​IMG]
     
  274. picture says a thousand words

    [​IMG]
     
  275. at the end of this hour I am putting my buying algo back on
     
  276. got out be
     
  277. looking to go short at the end of this hour.
     
  278. upload_2018-1-5_7-12-36.png

    ScreenHunter_6892 Jan. 05 07.15.jpg
     
  279. I shorted 1.20305 quite the retraces though, but I am feeling confident it will work out in the end.
     
  280. I'm not doing anything with this pair until I can recognize a pattern/bias developing...which my eyes are not yet seeing.
     
  281. for me this was an hourlly engulfer down with 3H stochastics pointing down too.
     
  282. Presently, I view this as a pair with a slightly bullish day-to-day trend that appears to have found support somewhere around 1.2024.
     
  283. hmm, not so sure about that, but we'll see ... no matter what will close my trade at the end of this hour.
     
  284. I got three charts on my screen: 3H/1H and 30M now also ... hope this helps me to see things better from now on.
     
  285. On the daily and 4 hour charts it looks like its ready to go down I think, seems like a trading range between 1.17 and 1.20ish
     
  286. And of course as a day trader, I have been looking primarily at my five-minute chart, sometimes switching to 15-minutes when I desired a wider angle, and occasionally dropping down to the one-minute chart if I felt it was necessary to optimize the timing of an entry or exit.
     
  287. Normally, at this point I would be debating whether I should buy EURUSD at 1.2038. However, given that I do not have a full 24 hours for the trade to develop, I’m opting not to enter another position for the rest of the day/week. Unless your time limit is already up, best of luck with your engulfing candlestick and down-pointing stochastic, and have a great weekend!
     
  288. I am once again into the lower tf's giving scalping another try. 10M and 15M should be there to help me. Long 1.20324 aiming for 10 pips
     
  289. out +1
     
  290. short 1.20446
     
  291. +15 pips
     
  292. long 1.20326
     
  293. stopped out -5
     
  294. looking to sell the daily ib break, guess I won't be the only one ...
     
  295. short 1.2020
     
  296. out be and long now @1.20202
     
  297. out be
     
  298. Nice one!
     
  299. thanks
     
  300. short 1.20042
     
  301. Long @ 1.1998, even though the day-to-day trend just turned bearish, from my perspective.
     
  302. banked 15 pips
     
  303. short 1.19834
     
  304. +15 pips
     
  305. short 1.19596
     
  306. There was no way I should have even been dreaming about the possibility of contradicting the freshly bearish day-to-day trend when I did!!! It is only now, at 1.1967 (30 pips and several hours later) that just entertaining the idea of entering a temporary long position makes any kind of sense. However, the more prudent move would be to wait to see if a pull-up in the downward trajectory actually does develop, and if so, enter a short position when the intraday trend hooks to the south once again to rejoin the exchange rate’s overall descent.
     
  307. got stopped out on -9 of this one; now back to short @1.1964
     
  308. The timing looks good to me, ever since the rate started bouncing around primarily between 1.1966 and 1.1968. :thumbsup:
     
  309. took +12
     
  310. short again @ 1.19642
     
  311. out +15
     
  312. short 1.1937
     
  313. out +15, I see us going to the channel low around 06-ish at the moment.
     
  314. short 1.19273
     
  315. stopped out -5
     
  316. Short 1.19309
     
  317. how many trades a day do you average?
     
  318. it depends, somewhere between 3 to 6 on a normal day ... I was a bit too early with my last but one trade but as always, it's the market teaching you things when you stopout ... in this case I hadn't read my indicator in a good way ...
     
  319. out +15
     
  320. long 1.19281 off the 30M chart
     
  321. stopped out -10
     
  322. stupid that last trade. Short 1.19224
     
  323. I better stop for today, not doing clever things anymore
     
  324. went long 1.1923, took 9 pips since it's countertrend (although that trend is changing at this moment)
     
  325. short now @ 1.19303 trying to catch 15 pips
     
  326. out -5
     
  327. At 1.1934 EURUSD looks to me like it might be initiating the next leg south (11:20 p.m. GMT).
     
  328. That was a head fake. I'll have to wait for my confirmation signal now before I try that again.
     
  329. Back at 1.1936 and I have a confirmation signal now, but I can nonetheless see this pair possibly riding one last small wave up again before finally remaining below this level and dropping lower.
     
  330. rather difficult price action here: I saw it correctly going up but made my target too wide and gave all my profits back at breakeven ... no more trading untill Germany opens
     
  331. long 1.19285, aiming for 9 pips
     
  332. banked
     
  333. short 1.19353 aiming for 15 pips
     
  334. stopped out
     
  335. long from 1.19455 stop at +1 pip
     
  336. sold ib on the 10M targeting should be 1.1934
     
  337. banked
     
  338. long 1.19674
     
  339. took +15 and that seems peanuts atm, 10M hidden divergence did the trick here
     
  340. long 1.19896 aiming for 9 pips / correction: let's make that 15 pips
     
  341. banked +15
     
  342. long 1.2013
     
  343. going to sell at 1.20193 misjudged something; I should have been in long aroud 03
     
  344. stopped out -9
     
  345. long 1.20035, hidden divergence on 10M
     
  346. reversed to short
     
  347. took +15
     
  348. shorted 1.1986 and took +9 ; now short 1.1977 targeting +9
     
  349. banked +9 wonderfull day today, wish they were all like that ...
     
  350. long 1.19508 looking to take 9 pips
     
  351. in the pocket ! a nice way to close this day off ...
     
  352. long 1.1962
     
  353. out be
     
  354. took 9 pips on the downside: I saw that engulfer down rather late but momentum save me.
     
  355. long 1.19533
     
  356. out -5, didn't read my chart too well
     
  357. long 1.19483 aiming for +9, inside bar break against the trend.
     
  358. out -9 pips, there is still something wrong with my chart reading :(
     
  359. I may have found the clue what I did wrong. Long 1.1947 aiming for 9 pips
     
  360. stopped out for -9. I obviously shouldn't be trading outside of London trading hours ...
     
  361. short 1.19245 trying to take 9 pips
     
  362. decided to move to the 5M chart, seems the 10M gives me much wrong signals.
     
  363. waiting for up target of 53 to get hit.
     
  364. moved target to 1.19625
     
  365. reversed to short @ 1.1946
     
  366. jesus :(
     
  367. long 1.2027, targeting 15 pips
     
  368. finally doing something right.
     
  369. long 1.20396
     
  370. Sold at 1.20536
     
  371. short 1.2043
     
  372. This journal seemed to have fullfilled it's purposes: I found myself a profitable trading method. It quite took some experimenting, moving tf's and all. I finally settled on the 5M with different moving averages than previously used.
     
  373. going to take profit @ 1.2029
     
  374. changed my target: now going to take profit @ 1.2019
     
  375. short from 1.2053
     
  376. out be
     
  377. short 1.2055
     
  378. reversed to long, misread my chart
     
  379. took +14
     
  380. long 1.21241
     
  381. out +14
     
  382. short euro 1.21145
     
  383. stopped out
     
  384. not clever trading after the red news ... short 1.2120
     
  385. out
     
  386. changed some other things about my system hope I see the results next week ...
     
  387. went long @ 1.2191, sold for 14 pips. Short at this moment from 1.21997, aiming again for 14 pips.
     
  388. out be, long 1.2209 now
     
  389. Holy crap. How many pips are you averaging per week? How many lots? You're on a tear.
     
  390. I am trading super small size while learning my method ... hope to expand later on, for the moment the goal is to find a good system, not the pips ...
     
  391. Good plan.
     
  392. got out +14
     
  393. long 1.2231
     
  394. that didn't work, out -6
     
  395. stupid: that last losing trade was against my rules but started to invent new rules on the fly ... keeping your head cool is part of the game ...
     
  396. I got 12 setups in total so sometimes it's a bit hard to keep track of things ...
     
  397. long 1.2213
     
  398. out -6: lesson of the day: don't trade outside of London trading hours ... seems the only way I learn is by banging my head against a brick wall :-(
     
  399. long 1.22117
     
  400. back on the right track: took +14 ... I like to think of myself as a rather rational person; seems to be that I am governed more by emotions than I like to think ...
     
  401. long 1.22582
     
  402. out 1.22722
     
  403. short
     
  404. another +14
     
  405. long 1.20637
     
  406. stopped out -7; wrong signal not to be taken in the future
     
  407. short 1.20548
     
  408. out -8, some things need more finetuning ...
     
  409. reasonably satisfied with my day: I deleted three setups, not so satisfied by the end of my day however ... but no pain no gain ...
     
  410. I went over charts once more and deleted two more setups and got one setup added to my arsenal which leaves me with a total of 8. Let's see if I can make this work tomorrow.
     
  411. Changed some more things, went multi-tf again and improved my setups ... I should now be able to trade eurusd also outside of London hours. Just went long 1.22626 and took +14 pips.
     
  412. short 1.2271
     
  413. took +14
     
  414. long 1.22459
     
  415. out +14
     
  416. short 1.22526
     
  417. another winning trade ... I finally seem to have cracked the magic formula ;-)
     
  418. long 1.22354
     
  419. close to my stop, but no cigar ... I have adjusted my system somewhat since I saw a similar case allready before on another timeframe ...
     
  420. stopped out after all ... some more adjusting to my system ...
     
  421. let's see if my new rules work: long 1.2213
     
  422. took +14 on that last trade, then had to go some things to do, took another long stab at 1.2212 and sold that too for +14
     
  423. short 1.22294
     
  424. that was obviously wrong, still have to adjust my system somewhat, now short 1.2236
     
  425. Threw all my indicators out of the door and trying to trade pure price action ... on demo for the rest of the week. Short 1.2235
     
  426. out be
     
  427. short 1.2243
     
  428. My analysis of the day: there was a long @ 1.2221 which I missed, then there was a reverse-signal @ 1.2243 to get reversed to long @1.22085 to get me out finally @ 1.2242.
     
  429. long 1.2189
     
  430. still long and added some @ 1.2235 and @ 1.2243
     
  431. reversed to short @ 1.2248
     
  432. added to short @ 1.2242
     
  433. got out @ 1.2237 and now long @ 1.2237
     
  434. added to long @ 1.2257
     
  435. reversed to short @ 1.2272
     
  436. stopped out @1.2278
     
  437. long 1.2278
     
  438. reversed to short @ 1.2280