S&P 500 short term overbought & low VIX

Discussion in 'Trading' started by MONEY4NOTHING, Jun 1, 2009.

  1. Never been a better shorting opportunity...short ES at 944.
     
  2. Wouldn't be easier to wait for the pullback and get on the long-term trend?
     
  3. Do you like to stand in front of the bus?

    Friday at close was extremely bullish and so is today... Waiting for a flat day would be wiser, so at least momentum fades.

    Calling tops is more dangerous than calling bottoms.

    I'm not a psychic, but shorting now may not be the best idea. I think 1000 is a huge physcological resistance so shorting a 990 would be much smarter. That being said, if the S&P goes above 1000 all the 990 guys might be squeezed and another pop can happen.
     
  4. Have to agree with the previous two posters. Getting in front of this train is lunacy at this point. Not saying you won't be right, but the market is clearly indicating up is the direction it wants to go, and nothing will stop that.
     
  5. GM bankrupt, job losses pile, debt soars...and the trend is up?

     
  6. Price action... price action... price action... price action... price action... price action...
    Price action... price action... price action... price action... price action... price action...
    Price action... price action... price action... price action... price action... price action...
    Price action... price action... price action... price action... price action... price action...
    Price action... price action... price action... price action... price action... price action...
    Price action... price action... price action... price action... price action... price action...

    EVEN WITH ALL THE BAD NEWS THE MARKET IS GOING UP! (read anything about Jesse Livermore)

    GM has been "bankrupt" for a year and that has been already priced in.
     
  7. ER9

    ER9

    momentum can carry these trends a long way beyond logic and sanity. i would extremely nervous shorting today. my guess is momentum will carry through the rest of today but i agree and would wait for a pullback and maybe retest.
     
  8. I see that market is short term overbought with low VIX in other countries like India as well. Synchronized global markets fall coming shortly...
     
  9. Money4nothing,

    Not trying to shutdown your idea, but shorting now is a perfect example of a high-risk, low probability trade. If you call a top and you are correct, then you will have a nice profit. Unfortunately momentum is going against you and being short after such strong days is not the wisest thing.

    Also, you continue to mention the vix and that it suggests that the market is overbought. Well there are thousands of variables influencing the market, so what does it matter what the Vix, one indicator says. Furthermore, what does in mean that a market is overbought for intraday or swing traders? Market can continue to be overbought tomorrow, this week, this month, or rest of the year (please refer to tech boom).

    BTW, a low vix points to a bullish market. The VIX and S&P 500 move inversely... what do you mean by low vix? Lower implied volatility is bullish.

    You're pushing the buttons and making the trades and I don't want to discourage you... Your P/L on this trade will prove one of us right. My opinion is that you are taking on a high-risk, low probability trade.
     
  10. MONEY FOR NOTHING! CHICKS FOR FREE!

    I love it.

    I agree it's overbought...it'll hit 950.50 & pull back to 915.

    ;)
     
    #10     Jun 1, 2009