"Where was all this "textbook" nonsense 3 days and 400 DOW points ago? Everything in TA looks "textbook" after it happens." See page 2 of this thread. Do you know how to count EW? Look at the chart. EW 5 + 3 has repeated over and over. Maybe you just don't understand how to use TA. Let me guess...you just trade by feel. How do you know when to buy or sell? I bet you use at least one indicator. Do you ever look at a chart? Well, guess what......charts are all in hindsight. Good luck to you though.
I did look at page 2 of this thread. Your EW analysis said "it is evident that higher is where we are higher (headed)"..."Each prior wave , however, did NOT meet the 1.618 rule before the correction (ABC)....so it will most likely be a bit short this time as well...... say 1600." Sorry if you thought I was singling you out in ripping TA. It wasn't meant for you, but rather for TA as a whole. In my trading I do use charts, but I NEVER buy or sell just on TA. I am purely a discretionary trader (or as you said...I "trade on feel"). Good luck to you as well.
Sorry if you thought I was singling you out in ripping TA. It wasn't meant for you, but rather for TA as a whole. In my trading I do use charts, but I NEVER buy or sell just on TA. I am purely a discretionary trader (or as you said...I "trade on feel"). Good luck to you as well. [/B][/QUOTE] No harm done. 1600 was a Fibonacci calculation. I felt sure we would be close.....but, things happen in the MARKET like this week that can not be timed or figured in weeks ahead of time. TA has merit in seeing the bigger picture. The exact stop/start points are blurred at times. But, I find it better to set goals than to trust my instincts. My instincts always lead me to the greedy side......I always let myself down. If I can lock on to a cycle or pattern I have a much better chance of anticipating the "normal" trading ups and downs. later
There's a million different ways to make money. If TA is what works for you, then keep it up!! Best of luck.
Like I said, any violation under 1403 will result in drastic consequences as it will break the spine of the uptrend. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1481749 Anyone who has stared at a chart for any period of time will know what usually happens next on the above chart which are: 1. A close over 1553.11 with volume will result in a breakout with the target being 2200. OR 2. The price double tops and then pulls back. The nature of the pullback being to a fraction of the previous rise (1/3, 1/2 or 2/3) or a full retracement creating a double bottom. Then the price will then advance back to the top line and make a decision. This chart of the S&P500 was during a time when the bond yields were on the way down. It does not show the previous 16 years when bond yields were going up. During that time, the index experienced chop and sideways action that appeared to be a giant base. So if interest rates are the main driver of the S&P500, I see option #1 very likely if there are swift rate cuts. Option#2 becomes likely if interest rates continue to rise or are kept at the same level. These surprise rate hikes from foreign countries are the troubling factor. Inflation, as pointed out earlier, is also very troubling. In looking at the ten year yield, I do see rates as high as 6% in our future with a possibility of 9% in the coming years barring any action from the fed. Therefore the key to the markets is the 1400 level.