I was thinking of converting 1/2 my capital from USD -> EUR for long term, no stops, but i've decided against this. So this is just a<b> small price action practice trade.</b> Any thoughts from your side on how to hedge the USD crash soon to come?
I've exited 1.2712 , -5 tick loss. --------- 2) I'm having conflicting LOGIC on how to play this. On one hand I Want to move out of USD, on another hand USD -> Euro is not the right move , considering EURO has more problems to come. 3) this would not be where I would be buying at the lows. So I'm entering with small size. 4) I think entering here long is the wrong idea on EUR, there is more bad news to come. <B>The price action is wrong to enter at this "low" , it can go lower.</b> 5) the topping of highs of USD is whats making me execute externous trades , trying to get out of USD, 6) I believe EURO would be the wrong asset class to exit to right now. It can rally hard, but would be hard to risk control.
I think gold is the way to go. Its been going up with fear even with a strong USD. If the USD inflates and crashes (which I dont think it will) but anything is possible and in that case you are hedged as well.
I made a few pretty small stopped out trades today, I Don't think they were good, a) will contemplate how to handle this USD issue, I'm thinking USD -> GOLD. b) We can't do USD -> Euro , no way, the bottoming process will take too long and the swings too much. c) It must be USD -> gold. d) GOLD hasn't showed me entries yet. e) Patience? I guess, back to patience, Losing small money makes me think clearly again <h2> Patience</h2>
Plan Capital protection: I will wait for GOLD entries, - Gold's price action can actually be near TOPPING, so it has to show me its bullish for me to enter. - fk euro, euro looks low but it can get lower ( quite a common happenece) - an uptrending asset class gives me lower risk but lower reward, on the other hand <b> I can't stomach the downtrending high risk high reward type of trades.</b>
One of my concerns while trading EUR: I've never been profitable trading EUR or S&P500-ES or CL or GC (gold) , directional wise, I use them for hedging, but never made a consistent profit trading them naked directional. If I 'm entering GOLD I must do it through an equity stock hedge, If I'm entering CL, I'll do it with an equity oil stock hedge. <b>If I'm entering EUR, I wouldn't know what to hedge it with.</b> Naked directional long on any futures, is just plain dangerous. Putting a 7 fig position naked directional on any futures = sucidal for me. Amaranth Advisors for reference.
The only way I can trade EUR, is if I accept 1.27 as my basis EURO price, Its not a directional trade, <i>its a currency exchange.</i> I don't think I'm willing to accept 1.27 as the base price, Its not a good trade imo overall then. Alright i'm out these are the thoughts for the day. No more trading.
I think we are close to the top on equities, bottom for EURUSD, I don't think the 2 can operate in the same direction. Heres how its going to play out tomorrow morning and afterhours: 1. ES will rally up a bit more afterhours 2. ES will open with a gap up , and spike up a little 3. ES should reverse. And start coming down a bit ------------ tomorrow size: I should be shorting small, aka 1 contract max or 50k need to build up experience on shorting again, Money is not important.. **EDIT , no shorting tomorrow, just realized it would be too early.