Robert "Jabba the Hut" Toll interview

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/scp_v3/viewer/index.php?pid=16573&rn=289004&cl=1354912&ch=1316259

Jabba the Hut suddenly doesn't know if the market has bottomed. It's great to see he's sh***ing his pants after proclaiming there is no housing crash in May 2006 and "we will bury the shorts", just after selling shares himself.

Now, months later, after being asked "Do you think the worst is behind us?" he just replies "Uh... ahh...... I don't know".

 

The sky is falling, the sky is falling. Yet TOL is up 50% since July. Hmmm, who to believe? The market? Or ET posters?

 

I say it's best to believe the homebuilding CEOs. They have a trackrecord of trust, honesty and the ability to assess the market's situation first hand.

 

CEO “We may be seeing a floor in some markets where deposits and traffic, although erratic from week to week, seem to be dancing on the bottom or slightly above.''

 

I think it will be awhile before the market stablizes for various fundamental reasons.

 

25% drop in homebuilding stocks over the next 12-18 months.

 

forecasting a 25% drop in next year for something is useless unless you have some evidence.

 

All i see on this board is stocks are going to go down, hearing that for months. Pure cocktail party chatter.

 

"I think it will be awhile before the market stablizes for various fundamental reasons."

What market?

 

there is no reason for the bounce in the homebuilders over the last 3 months, noneeeeeeeeee



this is taken from etfdigest.



“We may be seeing a floor,” Toll CEO says. So shouts the headline from MarketWatch.

Naturally you must comb thru the article to find the good news. Let’s see:

“Toll’s outlook below expectations”. No, not there. “Fourth quarter earnings down 50%...new orders down 57%...renegotiating land contracts…cancellations up 37%.” Nothing too encouraging there is there? So, continue, “These cancellations creating unintended specs, [read, speculative new homes without contracts] we could face increasing margin pressure as we try to sell these homes.” said CEO Robert Toll. “We believe many buyers are waiting on the sidelines with concerns about the direction of home prices as builders compete to move their specs”, he continued. [Yawn.] And, borrowing more copy from MarketWatch, “He said, the Washington D.C suburbs of Northern Virginia, seem to have stabilized [oh oh], although at levels much lower than it enjoyed a few years back.” Then [big finish] he added, “We may be seeing a floor in some markets where deposits and traffic, although erratic from week to week, seem to be dancing on the bottom, or slightly above.” [Bing! And we’re not talkin’ Crosby!]