Rewind Back 15 Years

Discussion in 'Journals' started by padutrader, May 1, 2019.

  1. padutrader

    padutrader

    ok it is a forum name why did you not say so
     
    #151     May 4, 2019
  2. padutrader

    padutrader

    i love it myself...i am witness very close by..am loving it.
    what you do not seem to understand i do not and never have valued money ....more than my friends
     
    #152     May 4, 2019
  3. ironchef

    ironchef

    I agree. I backtested SPY swing using SMA all the way back to 1993. I no longer had the results but I think what I found was it was profitable but less so than buy and hold SPY.

    It is tricky, first, there are so many ways to do it some may work better than others for the period of test. Second, if you do not benchmark, you would think trading using indicators worked, especially in a raging bull market. Third, even if your return is less profitable, the question I did not answer was comparing Sharpe, maybe on a risk adjusted basis, SMA day trading is superior?

    Anyway, there is more than one way to skin a cat. To each his own, as long as it works to your satisfaction.

    Take care.
     
    #153     May 4, 2019
  4. themickey

    themickey

    That sums it up. :)
     
    #154     May 4, 2019
  5. themickey

    themickey

    Just musing.....
    If you live in a hot dry country would that person want to have as their hobby snow skiing? The point being, yes you can but it would be a very expensive and time consuming hobby. It is not necessary to spend alot of money in order to have fun. One needs to fit their interests around their environment ideally.

    Continuing with the musing....
    If one is trading and not for reasons of making money, this could turn out a very expensive hobby with nothing to show for at the end of the day.
    Remember, we are competing against sharp minds, teams of traders, professionals, big boy money, algos, highly experienced and cashed up traders who are very incentivized.
    It makes more sense I would think to play with sim or online chess or bridge or poker with no real money down.
    Padu, if you are trading with real money and you don't have the tools, money or intelligence, this could end badly, in your old age living in a poor house.
     
    #155     May 4, 2019
  6. ironchef

    ironchef

    You deserve my respect for your honesty about your prior trading history and losses. Sounds like trading is your passion, don't let others discourage you but you also have to be realistic and make sure you don'g bet the farm and spend funds you cannot afford to lose.

    By the way, from the charts posted, your understanding of chart behavior had some good logics.

    My results are better than yours not because of trading skills. I just happened to start full time trading during the longest bull market in US history. Why am I here reading all the posts? I know my results will be very bad once this bull ends so I need help.

    Best wishes.
     
    #156     May 4, 2019
  7. themickey

    themickey

    Legendary Futures Trader: Win or Lose - Everyone Gets What They Want Out of Markets

    Ed Seykota is one of the most under-the-radar, but legendary futures traders of all time. In the 1970s, he pioneered computerized trading systems and became one of the most prophetic systems traders in the market. How good was he? $1 invested in his trading firm in 1972 was up 250,000 percent just 16 years later.

    In the book, Seykota said, "Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money."

    This is certainly counter-intuitive thinking. Why would anyone think that someone who loses money in the market is getting what they want? Let's dig into it.

    Seykota's belief centers in his understanding that trading is 90% mental. He shares an anecdote:

    "I know one trader who seems to get in near the start of every substantial bull move and works his $10 thousand up to about a quarter of a million in a couple of months. Then he changes his personality and loses it all back again. [...] He gets a lot of excitement, he gets to be a martyr, he gets sympathy from his friends, and he gets to be the center of attention. [...] On some level, I think he is really getting what he wants."

    Ouch.

    From Seykota's perspective, his friend is a great trader - but one that changes his behavior when things are going well. He knows what he's doing. He shouldn't do it. When he does, he is choosing excitment over profits and getting what he wants in the process.
    https://blog.topsteptrader.com/everyone-gets-what-they-want-out-of-markets
     
    #157     May 4, 2019
    padutrader likes this.
  8. destriero

    destriero

    Seykota went bust. People need to stop worshipping at the altar of Seykota. The guy made money when mkts were absurdly inefficient.
     
    #158     May 4, 2019
  9. padutrader

    padutrader

    i spend only from my income.....and have my own 4 bedroom house so though what you say seems right to you,it does not apply to me .
    but thanks for your concern
     
    #159     May 4, 2019
  10. padutrader

    padutrader

    i like to keep trading very simple and that to some is gambling.

    You do not have to see and analyse 5 time frames ,15 economic indicators and monitor 50 instruments
     
    #160     May 4, 2019