Home > General Topics > Trading > Remember a couple weeks ago everyone was "selling gold to buy Bitcoin"?

Remember a couple weeks ago everyone was "selling gold to buy Bitcoin"?

  1. /GC has had a nice move up. Bitcoin a nice move down.Big selloff coming at 1300 for /GC?? Or will it find some real legs above 1300? Would Bitcoin go even lower if /GC does catch a bid above 1300? Opinions on correlation?
     
  2. I think people here don’t understand the concept of volatility (which is needed before you delve into the the correlation mess). Bitcoin is realizing about 10-11% per day this year (160-180% per year). It’s down 30% from its peak over the course of two weeks, which is actually less than a single standard deviation. So no, it’s not a “nice move”. It’s equivalent of S&P having a down 50basis point day - would that raise your eyebrows?

    As for correlation of anything crypto with gold - I’d venture it is zero and anything you find is spurious.
     
  3. Fed have stopped dumping 4000 gold futures at market to temp the bitcoiners in.
     
  4. Down 30% from highs is not a nice down move? What would be? 50% down?
     
  5. Link?
     
  6. I understand that Bitcoin is much more volatile than gold. If you owned 1 Bitcoin and it was worth 20,000 dollars. Now it’s worth less than 14,000. Not an insignificant down move.
     
  7. Two standard deviations is where “significant” starts in my mind. This way you normalize the idea of “big” between different assets.
     
  8. LOL. Probably Zerohedge.
     
  9. Fair point. I tend to agree. A little to much wiggle room in the words “big” or “ significant”. Different for everybody. Standard deviations ( or two)are a more consistent way to measure moves in different underlyings. The big or significant part is inconsequential. Gold up. Bitcoin down. Will this continue?
     
  10. My speculation.
     
  11. Both of you are correct. It's simply a case of practical v statistical significance.
     
  12. Crypto math checks out! :)
     
  13. I disagree. Since the beginning of December it has been pretty clear. There is also a reason for it. It will attract some of the same players - think 'storage of value'.

    Got to love differing opinions.

    H.

    GC_vs_BTC.jpg
     
  14. You are going to make an opinion regarding correlation based on a 20 day sample? That's bold :)
     
  15. LOL cherry picking last few weeks. Oh boyee Gold broke $1300!!!!

    "Only" needs to go up a little less than $700 to surpass its ATH from 7 friggen years ago.

    Meanwhile blink and BTCUSD could be up (or down) $700 in an hour.
     
  16. True. Point?
     
  17. Figuratively one crawls, the other leaps. Why would anyone think they are correlated?
     
  18. They aren't correlated. Bitcoin is not a "safe haven". Gold is. When people wish to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk, they are not going to put all their shit into bitcoin. They are going to head into gold, the standard-bearer for many millennia.
     
  19. That much you got right.

    While gold has been around since forever .. very little time was it "money". Mostly a shiny trinket like sea shells and rocks.

    Good luck with lugging gold brick to Wallyworld to get a loaf of bread when the shit hits the fan.
     
  20. It is a store of value. Good luck accessing your wallets after the EMP hits and wipes all electronic data from the networks, your own computers and all other electronic devices.

    To be honest, when the shit hits the fan, the only true currency will be food, water and ammunition. Let's not kid ourselves here.
     
  21. This time it is different for BTC.:D
     
  22. Do all assets,underlyings, commodities,etc. that are correlated or inversely correlated have matching implied or realized volatility?
     
  23. nope
     
  24. nope !!! no such thing !