you never hear much about forecasting except by the infomercial types. more down to earth "reactionary" technical analysis is dominated by the moment. forecasting can only be thought about in two separate realms to me. one of which are the readily dismissed chest beaters who tout all the magnificent trades they called back in history. yet a glimpse of the actual forecast might reveal a what if scenario that would include a variety of possibilities. the other brings to mind professor types wearing lab coats and writing academic papers which prove without doubt they have solved the mystery of the market and it's only the failure of the less intelligent to properly implement the plan for success. the trading intellect space is overcrowded with everyone proclaiming the title "quant" and algorithmic buzz words. from my viewpoint all i see are different people discovering the same old stuff as if it never existed in the first place. it's like "groundhog day" stuck endlessly, an unwilling observer having to watch history rewinding over and over. it's a sad benchmark of existence when this no expansion beyond the known, where like "red queen theory" one has to run as fast as they can to simply stay in place. the extraordinary effort required to breakaway from gravity is typically not only beyond most individuals abilities, but beyond the awareness that such exploration is even possible or even needed. when you peel back the curtains of all the wizards and audit their portrayals of wizardry, still old mechanical levers and cables are propelling the props on the stage of the show "quants". ~m
Duly noted. Is there a call to action or a question in there? "There are two kinds of people. Those who believe that there are two kinds of people, And those that don't." Diplodicus Mr Brown, great motto btw ++ "Holy grails exist they are not for sale they are earned."
its all reactionary since the footprints of the market are created by large institutions, we just try to hop along for the ride.
i guess i am circling like a drone doing recon trying to find signs of intelligence lol and rather than regurgitated ideas of the status quo.
The problem I see with forecasting rather than reacting is that when you forecast, you might be proven wrong which is hard on your ego.
Even if not for the whales--and perhaps more sinister forces--you'd be up against the madness of crowds, trading on emotions and real-time events no one can predict (especially retail traders with no inside information). Show me a "forecaster" who has predicted the next 6-12 months and been even close to right in his charts for things like wars, 9/11, COVID, the subprime meltdown, the Fed enacting ZIRP and QE, etc. And one lucky call doesn't count.
You probably won't like this but forecasts require past data and some of the events you quote can't be predicted. However apparently Israel can forecast suicide attacks per info available freely in the internet. For a moment pretend math isn't developed yet and moving average is not known to mankind yet. How would you trade?