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Random Musings

  1. I've been meaning to set up a thread with my thoughts on trading and markets together with some trades. Here it is...
     
  2. June Nikkei new lows today. Was short overnight, but stopped out on the spike at 11pm est. Lost a couple of hundred points. Collapsed 700-800 points after that, just my luck.

    July NG setting up for a big move tomorrow, gas numbers out at 3.30pm BST. I see support at around 3930. Move could be up or down, but it will be big, a couple of hundred points, over a couple of days. Good one to play using options (a straddle) if not too expensive. More inclined to go long the futures.
     
  3. Called the NG trade right, from 4000 to 3800ish.

    Seeing a a big move up/down in the ES today after the the NFP numbers come out. Have stop orders to go long/short.
     
  4. Currently short Sept Nikkei, 400 points in profit, looking for a retest of the lows.

    Short CL too, currently $96ish, looking for $92.
     
  5. Out of Nikkei, almost stunned at the number of points i took, equates to about 6% :D . That's like doing a trade on the ES and taking 100 big points in less than 2 days!
     
  6. Out of the CL, small loss, not bothered.
     
  7. Expect record highs on ES by the end of the month. Want to go long, missed the rally today. Hoping for a pullback tomorrow (or Monday) to 1620ish. Doubt if it will go back that far though...would set up a nice 3:1 trade if it did (expect 1700 basis June).
     
  8. Wow. Excellent trades!
     
  9. Annoyingly, June ES did not fall to 1620, a few points shy. Didn't go long and missed the rally.
     
  10. The fed's announcement is a game changer.

    Not been concentrating on trading much, not been in the best of health, so missed the sell off yesterday in many markets. Just shows you have to be on the ball in this game.

    However gone in short today on the Sept ES at 1614.
     
  11. I would say the US will be in recession or maybe entering one by the end of the year.
     
  12. Bought some Apple shares at $495 last week. Thought i would follow in the steps of Icahn :D
     
  13. Maintain this view. I read Goldman said that much of the GDP growth this year was due to housing. In fact, if you stripped out those housing gains, GDP would be negative. Last week, the housing report came in far below expectations.

    I think we can forget about any tapering of QE this year.
     
  14. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24103970

    Markets gapped opened on this news on the weekend.

    Lost 1.5% of the funds i manage on the gaps. Was short TF and long the dollar. Killed on everything.

    Stupid thing was i noticed that the price action was so strongly bullish in the final hour or so on Friday. Was a big warning sign.
     
  15. Always be long the strongest when long and short the weakest when short.

    The Nasdaq is the strongest US index atm.
     
  16. A mate emailed me this :

    Day traders work FOR the market.

    Non day traders let the market work for THEM.

    :cool:
     
  17. Opinion time! I reckon the SP500 could hit 1900,maybe even 2000 by the end of the year. Not that far off, another 15% is not impossible when Bernanke is printing $85b a month, might even increase it!!!
     
  18. It would be good and healthy to have a correction in the stock market. Say 5% or so, would remove some froth. I think we will correct starting now. Not a bear market by any means, you can't have a bear market when the fed is printing so much money every month, ceteris paribus. But a correction is quite normal. Would be perfect to buy in for the longer term.