PST

Discussion in 'ETFs' started by ccwells, Dec 2, 2009.

  1. ccwells

    ccwells

    PST has bounced up for the last two days from the recent low. I will not call it a bottom just yet. The reason why that is, there is not a complete five waves down. The pattern will look better with one more push lower.

    Of course, I could be wrong. In fact, looking at a 15-minute chart, one could make a case that five wave pattern down is complete with the low of 11/30/09. However, I will wait for confirmation.

    So far, the volume has been weak as the price has move up the last two days. That does not instill confidence right now. Of course, it is still early yet to prejudge. Actually, the volume has picked up since the middle of November. I will have to wait and see what the volume does with the barriers I will now discuss.

    There are several barriers to the price moving higher. One is the 13 and 55 EMA. That has been stiff resistance since August. The 233 EMA has been resistance since June.

    The other resistance is the horizontal line connecting the lows of March and October. The price has move up towards that line the last couple of days. It will be interesting to see how the price responds to it.

    There is also a trend line resistance connecting the high of June and August. Getting above that line will be a major achievement. The other two barriers above will have already fallen by the time price breaks that trend line.
     
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  2. ccwells

    ccwells

    I have Elliott Wave labels on the chart showing my interpretation of the count. I have labeled two waves 1 and 2. This means that there is a wave 3 of 3 to come. This indicates that the move higher will be intense in the next week or so.

    Notice the gaps the last two days. This is normal due to the above-mentioned situation. The price may not fill these gaps for a long time.

    The price has also broken out above the trend line resistance drawn connecting the June and August highs. With the price well above the 55 EMA, the break of that trend line signals a potential change in trend, at least on the short term.

    The price may pause at the 54 level. A horizontal trend line resistance rest at that level. I do not expect it to hold for long.
     
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