Talking about reversals on levels. Is it safe to assume that you are mostly depending on luck if it just stalls and moves sideways, up and down, if it breakouts in your favor, it's just luck? At that point I would like to tighten my stops and see how it goes with little or no risk. What does everyone think?
Not my level, was talking about levels that I identify, where buyers/sellers should come in. Of course not every level will hold, that's why there are stop losses. But generally speaking a level identified should have a reversal immediately instead of stalling, looking indecisive, if it breaks out in your favor, it's mostly luck right?
You're asking so many questions that you could have answered yourself just by looking up charts. Anyway, with regards to the ES, you can have both: 1) Sharp and fast reversals 2) Slow reversals where price stalls for a period of time (longer or shorter) before it reverses.
When I started trading, I read and heard about "time stops", where after a set time in a trade you should exit despite it not having hit your target (or trailer) or stop. Experience showed this to be a mistake, at least in futures. In a fast market it can take seconds, in a slow market like we've been experiencing, the same trade can take hours. Experience has taught me to take my signals and stay with the trade until it works or fails...regardless of time.
Really? I feel if our trade idea was to be short on a certain level, if it consolidations and ranges around there, the trade idea is invalidated because it is basically almost 50/50 on a breakout of either direction. Not sure though, will test it out.
Price does not need to move immediately after you enter. That is simply the impatience in most over-leveraged traders.
My levels are always responsive. Let it be a reversal or a small reaction (1Pt min). Bought ES @ 2176.25 today after PMI : 2Pts reaction from my entry even if it eventually went lower. This is what I am looking for : Not being right but being able to break even or lose small if wrong. I eventually found a nice way to achieve it. If it's all about luck then odds are 1 to 1 or 50% probability over the long run. You could make money by taking bigger profits than losses. To tighten stops eventually increase your reward to risk but it (A Priori) also increase the chance of your SL being hit .... So we can't tell. What's sure is that your PnL is a function of time, volatility and exposure.