Preview US Retail Sales at 13.30GMT: Economists' look for retail sales to fall 0.3% in Jan, following a 0.4% drop in Dec. The bulk of the weakness should come from a decline in auto sales. Unit domestic auto sales fell to 11.7 million in January from 12.4 million in December, which should translate to a 2.5% decline in retail auto sales after accounting for the usual slippage from less price discounting at the start of the year. After netting out weak autos, sales should actually be up 0.2%. However, some of the strength will be attributed to gasoline sales, which should rise just over 1% due to higher gasoline prices, reversing the unexpected 1.7% decline in December. And after stripping out volatile building materials, desks' expect core retail sales to be up only a meager 0.1% .
With a negative payrolls number last month and chain store sales and consumer confidence lower, it may be unlikely that we see a stronger retail sales figure today....
More on data: weakness IS evident in descretionary sales with declines in furniture, electronics, sporting and books, dept stores, eating/drinking. Gains in food/beverage, gas stations, does suggest that underlying consumer spending is stressed. UST flows: Flows are very mixed, balanced. We heard some brisk action before figure, selling 5s, buying TIPS, better buying in 10s. HF and domestic real money for the most part. TY trading an inside day with the range coiling -- very evident on charts
More on data: weakness IS evident in descretionary sales with declines in furniture, electronics, sporting and books, dept stores, eating/drinking. Gains in food/beverage, gas stations, does suggest that underlying consumer spending is stressed. UST flows: Flows are very mixed, balanced. We heard some brisk action before figure, selling 5s, buying TIPS, better buying in 10s. HF and domestic real money for the most part. TY trading an inside day with the range coiling -- very evident on charts