Pretty Obvious Short Opportunity IMO.... Pepsi.

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by vanzandt, Jun 23, 2019.

  1. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Lots of divisions in Pepsi. From the latest 8K:
    upload_2019-6-24_1-3-40.png


    That "FLNA"... that's Frito-Lay North America. Its about 25% of their revenue... but as you can see... about 50% of their profit. Lot of money in snacks.

    And look at their one year performance:

    upload_2019-6-24_1-5-49.png

    Pretty nice eh? That's a thing of beauty.

    I see a problem though.
    All those snacks... or at least the lions share... all have one thing in common...

    (take a peak below):

    upload_2019-6-24_1-9-19.png
    Thats no minor spike. To say the least.

    Their earnings are in early July. No way they can get around addressing this. Companies like this.... the huge multi-nats... their earnings forecasts are as precision as a friggin Swiss watch. I mean its a science, and they have it down as such. Every friggin penny of expense going forward is accounted for. Every drop of juice squeezed to make that ever-coveted, upward forward guidance statement that Wall Street so loves to hear...

    Its not their fault... but the price of corn.... oops.

    Corn is gonna sting a lot of consumer package companies here in the near future... and a bunch will come down... but as these things go... PEP maybe more than most.

    We'll see. :cool:

    $134
     
  2. fan27

    fan27

    Maybe they are hedged?
     
  3. maxinger

    maxinger

    Quite straight forward to trade.
    Simply use a ruler to decide entry / exit point
     
  4. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    I thought about that... I'm sure they are. But at some point, its going to work its way in. It'll scare the Street. Pretty sure.
     
    fan27 likes this.
  5. destriero

    destriero

    No way to know how much of their raws are hedged. I like the short, tho.
     
  6. dozu888

    dozu888

    nah... how much is a bag of flaming cheetos? f'ing $3.99.... how much raw corn is used to make that shit... 5 cents?

    raw grain is a very tiny part of the final price.
     
    vanzandt likes this.
  7. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    That's an an excellent point really. Comparable generic products are a third the cost. The impact of this sudden sharp increase in the price of corn may indeed be minimal. There's not enough transparency in their filings to draw a truly informed conclusion.

    Plus that chart... certainly not one that bodes well for any short considerations.

    Probably a good idea to sit tight on this one for now.
     
    Nobert likes this.
  8. dozu888

    dozu888

    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZC&p=m1

    you guys remember the good old days when a bag of corn chips were $1.79? then in 2011 and 2012 corn spiked to $800 then these guys just pass the cost to the consumers and raised them to $3.99 a bag... the thing is after corn got back down to $300 these blood suckers keep the chips at f'ing $3.99 a bag lol..

    if OP look at this chart, $350 - $450 is barely some 'noise' on the monthly lol.

    and the other thing is -

    we are paying $3.99 for a bag of chips, while all that corn is wasted to produce alcohol, meanwhile we are the biggest oil/gas producer now... natural gas is almost free already lol.... but, have to keep them Iowa farmers alive.

    I love Trump and everything he does, except this little thing he just did to allow E15 gas year round... I guess a small compensation to the farmers feeling a small pinch from the trade war.
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2019
  9. The answer is to not eat any processed food.