Please help me understand the likely affect on Monday's Equity markets. I will certainly know by Sunday when the Futures re-open. But I do not keep up 100% with politics. I am guessing that if they reach a Trade agreement the market would like that and go up. And no agreement and the market goes down. But, will there even be more than just a "possible" agreement? I did find this article... sounds to me like downside is more likely, and this especially makes sense to me given the little rally we just had over the last week. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...eting-puts-stock-market-on-edge-idUSKCN1NZ1VU
Buy the rumor - Sell the news. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/30/tru...r-stocks-like-apple----or-a-bear-market-.html
Don't think the market expects an outright trade agreement from the very first meeting between Xi and Trump. There's going to be a lot of jostling and back and forth between the 2 powers before anything is reached. BUT if there is, in the extremely unlikely event that something tangible is reached, market is going to go up, WAY up, so if you are short, watch out cuz you are going to get majorly squeezed. Most likely there is going to be nothing just talks and in that case, the market is going to just continue this up and down dance until X-Mas.
Trump needs the PR win; I'll stick to my prediction that he capitulates and ends up calling it the greatest deal in the history of deals; perhaps even better than the Louisiana purchase. If I'm wrong, it wouldn't be the 1st time. After all, the guy is rather "mercurial".
I think they are going to give the markets what they want to hear, this is one of the biggest market movers in 2018 happening this weekend. Like I said 80% chance it jumps 2% Monday morning, they know if these trade talks fail the market is done for 2018 so they need to prop it up and keep it in the green hence working out some kind of trade talk agreement In the next 24 hours ..... I really hope they come to an agreement so I can short the hell out of these markets!!!
There will be no out right trade agreement, but they will smooth out talks and spin it as positive to give the markets a boost. They will not keep markets in the red for 2018, this will push them green straight into the end of the year. As for shorlting...I'm going to add more positions once the market jumps another 4-5 % ... Nothing holding up this market but air.
It doesn't matter what comes out of this meeting. The whole media narrative on market reaction to this is inconsequential. Its noise. The folks that can really control market direction with war-chests full of billions and billions of dollars and powerful powerful computers that know exactly which stocks to buy/sell at any exact moment to help move the index(s) for maximum efficiency know where they want it. Last week a bear trap of epic proportions was set across the board. This week is going to be VERY green. Shorts are going to get clobbered. Tons of dry powder that has been patiently waiting on the sidelines is gonna be put to work. This market WILL be lower in 2019 than where we are right now... but for the shorts that jumped in the last week or so.... that might as well be 1000 years from now. Intuition again VZ? Yep, based on nothing at all except a lifetime of mesmerization for this game... and a hard won understanding of human nature and greed. Shorts got greedy the last few weeks. They are going to give it all back. ....Up we go. -vz
Maybe sell the (covered) at the money (or even a strike above) puts against them at the bell and let them decay Monday/Tueday. I did this at the close yesterday.