I'm thinking of taking a position based on expected movement from the upcoming U.S. Presidential election; specifically, a long position in the more heavily-weighted companies on the S&P (MSFT 5.1%, AAPL 4.8%, AMZN, 3.22%). [Ref 2] I'm reading a book called "Political Control of the Economy" by Tufte, 1978. A bit of a collector's item from the Ford administration, some points therein still hold valid: We saw this in the Clinton administration: ...and even back to the Hoover administration, who won with this slogan: I see T spinning the Corona virus to this effect: because of this disease, limitations must be put in place with China. This is a drag on the economy. Thus, we must lower interest rates and take other actions to keep the markets hot. If I'm right, we could see AAPL break 400 by November. CONCERNS A. I know... The "Economy" is not the "Market." There are plenty of threads on that; however, although most are not active traders like us, many are vested through their 401k, IRA, or even pension plans. I think that the unwashed masses' concept of "The Economy" is generally linked to performance of the DOW and S&P, and the color of these numbers as they blip across the screen on morning talk shows and sporting events. B. The price of gold frightens me a bit. $1618 at time of writing. An increase in gold prices typically indicates some form of political unrest... war... [Ref 3] Is this price spike due to Corona again, or some semi-secret military operation that we are not privy to? C. Most of these companies are tech... in your opinion, is a bit of diversification in order? fear that I will lose profit. REFERENCES 1. Tufte, E.R. 1978. Political Control of the Economy. Code: https://www.amazon.com/Political-Control-Economy-Edward-Tufte/dp/0691021805/ref=sr_1_3?keywords=political+control+of+the+economy&qid=1582223119&sr=8-3 2. S&P Weights. https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500 3. Debt, The First 5,000 Years (Graeber, D) 2011. Code: https://www.amazon.com/Debt-Updated-Expanded-First-Years/dp/B015F0BBFW/ref=sr_1_3?keywords=debt&qid=1582224303&sr=8-3
Tufte rocks. It's now a goodly 40 years since his political economy work, and it not only remains as required reading, it's but one facet of Tufte's output. A personal hero of mine. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Tufte OH YEAH! THE TOPIC... Ehhhhh. (Thinking thinking thinking) In the time period that you imply, I think the bond market/bond futures would be the place, and the FED would be a good *populist* proxy, as they tend to keep a limited eye on what's On The Street in the name of the full-employment half of their mandate. (So...) It seems to me that you're on target. (IMO, YMMV, OIMACTTA)