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Point and Figure method - trading journal

  1. Welcome! Here is my trading journal with my:

    technical analysis,
    point and figure charting,
    market analysis,
    sector analysis,
    Richard D. Wyckoff method analysis,
    relative strength analysis,
    and inner thoughts and feelings.

    In my trading I have been using point and figure and the Richard D. Wyckoff method for many years now. I usually do top-down analysis by first identifying the market setup, I then do sector analysis and relative strength analysis to find the strongest or weakest stocks in the strongest or weakest sectors.

    In my investing I combine fundamental analysis with the above and I use a few exceptional market timing signals for longer term bullishness or bearishness. These have showed to be far more accurate than my own feelings, so I’d rather trust the professional quantitative analysts than my own emotions. These signals are also used in my shorter term trading.

    I will start this trading journal where I gather my thoughts and post my trading ideas. Instead of writing this down in my paper journal book, I’d might as well post it here if anyone is interested in reading.

    These are my ideas, and you are invited to follow me. I like to exchange ideas and learn from my readers as well.
     
  2. Here is a standard Point and Figure analysis / Wyckoff Technical analysis setup for AAPL that I have been trading with success this past year.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=PWB8

    This is what I usually look at in my technical trading: P&F chart of the stock. Bar chart of the stock. A P&F chart of the market (S&P 500). The Relative Strength versus the market. Usually I don't do RS analysis of the sectors. I get a fairly good view on the strong and weak sectors to avoid just by viewing their charts. As long as we are stronger than market, we're usually golden.

    So what about the analysis of AAPL?
    We are in a down trend with some kind of support at around 580. We already broke the 650 support. (And I got stopped out.) We went back to lick it (Wyckoff test of ice, guys). Markets seem to want to go south, but is hesitating a bit. AAPL is short-term weaker than the market which is generally not a good sign. AAPL has been a market leader for a long time, and when the market leaders stop going up, normally the rest of the pack will follow it sideways or down.
     
  3. Looking at REED technical analysis today.

    On the 1% point and figure chart we are at a nice level of support at this level:

    http://www.paf.am/?di=BWUI

    On the Candle stick chart we can see the nice uptrend. The last candle tried to go down but closed at the top - a bullish sign.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=47BH
     
  4. Thanks for starting this thread. I am interested in p and f and i have done some paper trading . I think p and f is best for new comers
     
  5. Yeah! It is the best in certain aspect, not only for newbies. I do like to view barcharts/Candlesticks also, especially if you are not using intraday data you will want to look at what is happening on a more detailed level.
     
  6. Let's have a look at URI, a stock I have been interested in a long time. Nice fundamentals and all.

    We have quite a nice setup. We had a strong up move on heavy volume over the 37-38 area, gapped up even. Had a pullback/flat for a few days on much lower volume and then shot up again on heavier volume.

    Another pullback/breather now, let's see the future.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=IYWH
     
  7. ECL is another stock on my list.

    I really like the uptrend it is showing on the daily and weekly point & figure charts. The candlestick charts shows the latest strong upmove on high volume and BIG bars. Somebody really wants to own this company, but taking a breather at the previous resistance, now acting as support. A pullback to the side of the creek - for using the Wyckoff trader lingo.

    Daily Point & figure chart
    http://www.paf.am/?di=K3JL

    with weekly point and figure chart:
    http://www.paf.am/?di=65MA
     
  8. Today I have four strong stocks. These are in the Utilities group that has performed well and been a market leader for a period.

    First a technical analysis of AME
    here we broke through the resistance at around 35.50. Now we seems to have a quick pullback on lower volume and I would not be surprised to see us head up if markets want to go higher from here.

    We can notice a nice wyckoff spring at the end of the trading range before the breakout. For Spring traders this was just screaming out to buy. Springs are something I have always had trouble with, although they are a very reliable signal. With some hindsight in technical analysis they are a great confirmation in my opinion.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=K6ZJ
     
  9. Next technical analysis is DE - Deere & Company. These guys make tractors!

    Tractors are apparently selling well, because we are breaking out of every resistance point there is. The point and figure 45 degree down trend line, and any minor resistance on the way. Now we had a slight pullback, a trading range above the resisitance "creek" on diminishing volume.

    Also here we can see the Wyckoff spring in first part of october. You had to be cool to enter on it, but you had also been happy with your profits.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=XVM8
     
  10. Then we have PHM. Never heard of em...

    PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in homebuilding and financial services businesses primarily in the United States.

    Alrighty then, homebuilders. People need homes right?

    Point and figure analysis - old resistance became support in the 17 level, now we are at resistance, or double top. We have a major diagonal uptrend in the bar chart. Strong.


    http://www.paf.am/?di=IELW
     
  11. Then some Rock n roll:

    ROK

    The last three days have been exceptional.

    The formation leading to that crazy breakout is quite strange with lower lows and lower highs. That's what some people would call a flag. Chart patterns were my introduction to price action analysis and trading. From that I moved to Richard D Wyckoff's work, and later simplified my own analysis with heavier focus on Point and Figure and confirming analysis on bar charts or candle stick charts.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=UY99
     
  12. I just had to include this one also. SPRT. High risk - high reward?

    I normally do not like these companies that are driven by news, but this pharmaceutical company apparently had a drug approved or something and the news made it blow through the roof. Now we are in a pullback after that news, and perhaps at a place where we might see a reversal.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=E6D8

    About halfway of closing the gap. Normally a Wyckoff trader would consider the half-way point from top to bottom of pullback. When we're having a gap, we must look at it another way. Gaps want to be filled. That is one of their only reason for living.... A strong stock will not fill its gap, but it still wants to be tested. If we don't fill the gap, we are dealing with a strong stock.

    Now, the point & figure chart just looks like a column of X and a column of O. Interesting to not when we're talking about half-way points - the column of X is 44 boxes, and the column of O is 22 boxes - and for those of you that know basic math, that is half.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=9XDO
     
  13. How does PAF perform in chop? Seems great when a stock is trendy.
     
  14. First of all,

    sorry the post yesterday should have been SRPT and not SPRT - two different securities.

    The one in my pics is SRPT.

    Ever bought or sold the wrong stock? I have. You feel like an idiot when you do. It happens
    to everyone once in a while I guess.


    Anyway....


    We had an up move in the markets. Dare we believe that it will continue, or did we see a reversal bar yesterday?
    A "peek-a-boo" in the resistance zone at 1420? Will we jump into that zone or was it the last time we saw these levels
    for some time?

    Looking at the Spiders SPY.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=8EU3

    The 5 box size says we're approaching a resistance zone above 145.
    The 1 box size says we're heading down through the support at 142.

    I wrote a little poem for you:

    What do you do,
    when you are in doubt?
    When you don't have a clue?
    You had better stay out!
     
  15. Point & Figure has its built in "filter" - you set the box size and reversal size and you can actually avoid the chop.

    E.g. If you use a box size of 5 for a stock trading at a price around $100 it can chop around as much as it want at 90, 91, 92, 91, 92, 93, 91, 94, 91, 92, 93,94,91,95,91,93,... (you get the picture) and then 100 - and your chart will only show 90, 95, 100 - i.e. actually a trend from 90 to 100, and you are never chopped out.

    In my humble opinion it is great for trends and ranges, AND it filters out much of the chop.

    It is no holy grail, but it is a "simple" grail in my humble opinion. You might sometimes enter on $90 instead of $89.94 as an entry signal would come at the $90 sharp (depending on your settings of course). You don't have to use "plain vanilla" P&F, you can always use bar charts for exact entry signals after you see interesting patterns forming on the P&F charts.

    Hope it explains.
     
  16. Is it safe to say that the general market does not like the elected president?
    No confidence in the president's abilities to solve the financial trouble?

    Is it safe to say that the market had a terrible day?

    We officially jumped into the deep water, with a big splash. Huge bar, huge volume. Force.

    I expect lower prices, with a test of the new resistance zone at some point.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=SDGG

    We can confidently start looking at some short candidates.
     
  17. Yes we're heading downwards. The volume has picked up significantly - what I would call heavy selling.

    The point and figure chart shows two levels of support at 137, the previous resistance level and a minor
    45 degree trendline - both at the same level of 137. Another 45 degree trendline below that might
    be the next support somewhere close to 134, where we also have a support level on the point and figure
    plottings.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=IOCY

    Looking at the barchart we can see that recently up-moves have had smaller and more bara, while
    the down moves have been on larger and fewer bars - this shows that the line of least resistance have been down.
    Likewise we can also note that the volume has been heavier on the down moves.

    The last two days have had much heavier volume than any other bar lately.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=8INT
     
  18. An interesting thing to note, perhaps without much importance, is that the areas marked with the gray background are quite similar, while the first one is a little bit larger.

    Counting the final down moves in these areas, in the first one we had 10 Os down, in the current one we currently have 7. If we would have symmetric down moves from the symmetric areas, we would see a down move of 8 Os to 138 level. Close to the support we identified in the previous post.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=3ZLB
     
  19. Let's look at some short candidates,

    The bottom fell out - waiting for a bear pullback - XEL on a 1% chart

    http://www.paf.am/?di=LPM4
     
  20. FE - we're at the support, could enter on the break through, or wait for pullback would the breakout come.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=5OVB
     
  21. D - here we're also at the support. The option is to enter on the break through, or wait for pullback afterwards.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=5OVB
     
  22. CLNE - We have already fallen through the support that has been in place since June. We had a pullback which I missed, and
    now a double bottom pattern, one of the basic point & figure patterns.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=28XM
     
  23. Sundays are good for doing general market analysis before markets open on Monday. I'd rather take Friday afternoon off, and do it on Sundays instead.

    S&P500 has been weaker than Nasdaq, on a long term scale - Big chart on the right is the Relative Strength of SPY and QQQ.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=7TP7

    This is normal. Now that we are on our way down I am assuming technology based Nasdaq will perform worse.

    We did have an up day on Friday - but not very big, more of a breather. But still a heavy reversal with a close on the low end of the range. Tried to go up, closed down - if we can't go up, we will probably go down.
     
  24. Facebook stock technical analysis

    Assuming Nasdaq will perform worse in a bear market, it is safe to assume FB will perform badly as it has since the IPO. Action has been terrible and I feel for the people who bought there and then on promises. Who dares touching this one now. There are some technical points to consider which can provide for good setups. A break out below the 18 level would mean to me that we are heading down again, a confirming pullback on low volume for added confidence. The action in the current trading range is quite erratic. I don't see real stopping action, more a low base type of pattern.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=PKKU
     
  25. Moving further downwards. We have already broken the technical level on the SP500 that we identified time ago. We will see a pullback at some point, but for now we are continuing to focus on the weak stocks to short.

    CPE has a double bottom point and figure pattern at 4.50 on the 1% chart. The candle stick chart shows the quick pullback on lower volume. Looks like a nice short to me.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=ZRWD
     
  26. You use Bulls eye broker software. Where do you get the data feed into the software? Will it accept from IB ? Thanks
     
  27. We had a huge up bar in FB which we are interested in mainly on the short side.

    We are still in the range we identified, and these huge up moves have happened before in this range.

    If we have worse times ahead, an entry at the top of this range could prove fruitful.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=3B9Z
     
  28. ACN is a tech stock that is in a nice downtrend, we are abit over extended for going short, unless the bottom falls ut at this point, as we are at a support level.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=R4ZA
     
  29. The market is getting somewhat oversold, and we WILL get a pullback at some point. WHEN the pullback comes a short term trader could enter positions in strong stocks, if keeping in mind that the 3 month longer trend is down.

    We will get a pullback and test the 1400 level in SP500. If we get that far, or if we even go through it - only time will tell.
     
  30. We've had a big drop and will likely get a rally from here somewhere. Markets move up and down. We could be testing or entering the yellow area during this week. On Friday we saw a reversal bar.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=BAZ7
     
  31. For now it seems like we are in the rally we were anticipating earlier. How long it lasts, or if this is the beginning of a larger up - nobody knows.

    KORS is an interesting stock for an upmove. It gapped earlier this year and we have now tried to close that gap, but failed. Instead we had a Wyckoff spring at the 48 level. On the P&F chart this reversal is happening at the exact level of the 49 top earlier this year.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=JKLK
     
  32. Technical Wyckoff analysis of APPLE.

    AAPL is again becoming interesting. A stock that has been in the highest number of funds, with funds then wanting to get rid of it, securing profits, as we have seen in the downtrend. We now had some stopping action with the reversal on Friday, and now a big up move. Potential selling climax and automatic rally, as Wyckoff traders would call this. The next pullback would probably provide a great risk/reward position if the selling climax holds, and also a break out above the current rally.

    If the test of the selling climax does not hold, and we again see downside in the market. Then it is another story.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=GZMU
     
  33. I use eSignal on the trading computer that I have eSignal installed on.

    On the laptop I don't have eSignal so I just use the free YAhoo Finance data.

    It does accept IB. I have an account with IB but I don't use it for data as I have eSignal.
     
  34. Another bullish bar in the market, and we got the reversal to X column in the SPY. Let's see if it will meet the resistance as we identified earlier.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=HYNH
     
  35. How far up can we go? That is the question on many traders' minds right now.

    Looking at SPY - the rally is on rather low volume. The thrust is weakening.

    We are now looking for clues, evaluating if we will have a small pullback and go higher OR if we will head down again another leg.

    We are approaching the resistance zone, the "ice" that we have fallen though, in the P&F chart. On the candlestick chart we can see that we are approaching a short term trend line.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=F36K
     
  36. It is always interesting to see the big picture of the market on a weekly chart of SPY and weekly 5 point figure chart of SPY.

    We are actually in a clear uptrend, had a pullback, that did not reach the lower trendline in place since 2009. On the short time frame trend line we can the higher high turning roughly at the level of this trendline.

    On the 5 point figure chart we are in an uptrend, have broken a downtrend line and have a rising 45 degree trendline at our support.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=GRTB
     
  37. And lets compare the relative strength -

    Which one would a trader choose? Among these nice performers the decision is hard. Based on technicals, AFFY is stronger. Usually it pays off to be in the strongest stocks.

    The long term shows Affy being stronger, with a current pullback
    http://www.paf.am/?di=EA07

    Same is noted in the short term also, in the right hand side we have the 1 month view, in the left hand side longer term view. Bottom chart on each side is the RS calculation

    http://www.paf.am/?di=1BG1
     
  38. YELP is all over the place, reminds me of a buddy of mine who was never able to sit still when we we're young. He got in trouble in school all the time.

    For traders who enjoy trading range action this could be a play.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=GQTX
     
  39. Two cruise line stocks-
    RCL and CCL

    Both strong. Looks like a nice industry and a nice ride - not just for the passengers of the cruise lines, but for the speculators as well.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=JLCE
     
  40. Facebook - FB - the stock that everybody is scared of has had some great days. Are we running out of steam?

    How many millions did you say you lost when invested in the IPO?!

    http://www.paf.am/?di=T2D0
     
  41. Thanks for your information. IB data is only available for 5 days. Will I be able to accumulate that data in the software so over a period of 3-6 months I can see chart in p anf f for that period.

    How do I contact Bullseye broker? I did not see any info on their website?

    Thanks
     
  42. If we go down from here, we will want to be in weak stocks like NE, which is breaking down through the double bottom p&f pattern (chart on right hand side)

    http://www.paf.am/?di=IH5A
     
  43. POT is also performing like something you would not even touch with a long stick, unless you want to be short

    http://www.paf.am/?di=HB2F
     
  44. hmmmmmmmm........

    Are we actually in the beginning of a severe bear move - or will we really have the force to break through?

    http://www.paf.am/?di=3N41
     
  45. And what about you Mr. Appleman, we have made so much money together before?

    Just give me the sign and I will follow you AAPL!


    http://www.paf.am/?di=B0OU
     
  46. i trade short term-former floor trader.

    what i do is use a 5 minute bar chart with RSI and MACD to look for markets that might be OBOS. I have the p&f up and change the parameters to get the bigger picture and such. I have my trend lines in and put stops to get into markets not on the first X or O breakout/breakdown-because it could be a fake out. I wait for the second square for confirmation of the move. I might be paying more but I "know" that I'm write in the direction. For pullbacks, the trendlines work very well for places to either stay in the trade or do get in on a pullback. The RSI & MACD will confirm the pull back. the b\catapult works very well for larger moves and the horizontal count is great for profit targets
     
  47. i`m amazed macd and rsi are still alive :confused:
     
  48. u can be amazed, but when u use the studies on the bar chart along with the p&f, it works very well
     
  49. Hi, AG.

    What's your timeframe for holding the position (intraday, couple of days, etc.)?
     
  50. i'm a former floor trader so it's intra day,but if you change all the parameters on the charts, say make the bar chart a daily and the p&f's for wider reversals it still works and you get bigger moves
     
  51. Apple, apple, apple.... :-( So AAPL opens down alot AGAIN.... once leaders, will they lead everybody else down as well
     
  52. AAPL had a catastrophic day. Plunged below previous support on the P&F chart. A technical analysis on a barchart would show AAPL at support is considering OHLC bars and not "close only".

    SP500 is at resistance and odds are we are in for a reaction, which could fuel Apples down move even more. Let's see what next week brings us.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=Z1G9
     
  53. Here is a danger zone of AAPL - we will get a rally towards the danger zone which will be resistance that we would have to break through if we wanted a bullish trend.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=9OQ7
     
  54. what parameters do u look for on p&f on aapl? it looks like with the ones u r using, u ,must be trading long term
     
  55. How did you come up with this area?
     
  56. your trend line on the p @ f isnt good. You need at least two lower tops. you can't use it off of two boxes, it's uesess
     
  57. So, we survived fiscal cliff death for now... We also survived the Mayan end of the world, we survived the holidays.

    Now it is time to start trading again after few weeks of vacation from the markets.

    TEX breaks through double top and a previous resistance level.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=OFLS
     
  58. DLPH - what can you say? Fantastic profits from the double top break out. Currently overextended so don't enter positions right now, wait for a pullback for better risk/reward.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=A96P
     
  59. Here's a real loser - SKUL - the "Skullcandy" earphones kids used to want to have, but now rather die than be seen wearing them.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=C31L
     
  60. DLTR

    "dollar tree" actually made me some good money back in the days, but now severely under performing

    http://www.paf.am/?di=R73B
     
  61. SP500 has had a great move and we are in for a reaction/pullback. We might stay flat also before trying to break out through the resistance.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=XMMG
     
  62. AFL having a nice pullback in a strong uptrend. Nothing on the P&F chart that would make us want to avoid trading it.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=BE6M
     
  63. A Wyckoff Point and Figure charts provides us with a nice overview of the resistance we are meeting in the SP500.

    http://www.paf.am/?di=55I1
     
  64. We have had a fantastic run in SP500 (which is higher than Nasdaq). We are very much extended from the moving averages, something that cannot go on forever. Traders should note that we are in for a reaction or to be range bound.

    There are bullish topics in the air. According to Lipper, funds got inflow of in $18.3 billion first week of trading this year. The 4th largest inflow since January 1992.

    We are exactly at the resistance level.


    http://www.paf.am/?di=U8UH
     
  65. great call