I wouldn't touch it at all. IPO was to recently for me ; at least one year of data... With volume like that and lower shorting fees, you got dozens and dozens (if not hundreds), of different stocks - to choose from. Second scenario 2 : Here's , watch-list* with alternatives (swing-trading), potentially soon, to choose from : (positions, that i am in, - excluded)
Two years is even better. Then, on a weekly chart, you can see, significant levels - for price action. When using limit orders, volume is an important factor, when getting in and out, of position. The more buyers and sellers, the faster you get filled. ( at the better price, so called liquidity ) Some valuable links and tips : https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/where-do-i-learn-day-trading.328291/page-2#post-4796833
Since it is a paper trade, I will comment, but what follows is my opinion and you are free to block me at will. I read your write up and I have no idea what the competing theses or "narratives" are to which you refer. I'm a technical trader, and right now, based on the daily, I'd be long expecting it to trade in the high 40's again before it ever trades below 18. Anything can happen, but if someone told me that I had to take a position and stick with it for a month or my family would die, I'd be long. Opening day low 18.26 tested to 18.13 abut four weeks after issue (double bottom) followed by higher low trend reversal (18.80 about a week after DB) ... volume high during initial sessions, with volume pulling back during the pullback. Volume increased again at the low (the underwriters are obviously willing to support this one). I may be wrong, but if you are going to base your trades off of fundamental theses, you're doing it the hard way. Grab yourself a copy of William O'Neil's How to Make Money in Stocks, and be bullish on America, imo. Read up a bit on Bill Ackman's brilliant HLF short from about 2012 through sometime last year. Thesis shmesis. There are much easier ways to make money in stocks, imo.