Oil longs

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Illum, Jan 26, 2009.

  1. "Took a postion in TBT will watch the action. I do know the oil longs are in pain but.... I just cant see it. "

    Bonds have hit an historical high. With another trillion dollar bailout package being proposed by Obama to be financed with more bonds, I don't see anywhere for bonds to go but down. I bought TBT a week ago and am hoping for more gains in the weeks ahead.

    Oil, however, is not at an historical low and could certainly continue to go down. But the seasonal tendency is for oil to start going up toward the middle of February, so if the COT report indicates that commercials have started buying and the technicals indicate an uptrend , I plan to buy USO. I have some friends trying to bottom pick USO now--I sure hope they don't get burned.
     
    #21     Feb 1, 2009

  2. ehmoron: as a professional critic of pseudo-scientists for more than 10 years, I can tell you that oil may be regenerative, but at nowhere near the rate we as humans pull it out of the earth. What's your field, intelligent design?
     
    #22     Feb 1, 2009
  3. ehmoran

    ehmoran

    You know, you need take your hatefull attitude somewhere that would do some good, like IRAN.

    I'm well published in Public and Private Environmental Science issues, so pseudo-scientists doesn't quite fit.

    But I guess people like you consider yourselves much better than everyone else where you can't have a discussion where everybody learns.

    That's a very Far-Left and, most likely, Far Right Attribute .

    Need to come to the middle, open your mind like a child, then you may see some GOOD in others!!!!
     
    #23     Feb 1, 2009
  4. 100% true, I trade some physical grain from usa to dominican republic and costa rica, and I have a line of credit with 3 banks, just like usual.
     
    #24     Feb 1, 2009
  5. achilles28

    achilles28

    Banks are loaning to qualified applicants. Lending standards are way more strict, 20%+ down, FICO 700+, gainfully employed etc. No more liar loans with 0 down. Sure, a 30-year mortgage is priced to sell, if you get approved.

    Its the Joe-Six Packs that largely drive this consumer-based economy. If they can't get credit, and the FICO 800 superstars can, not much is gonna change on the ground.

    As far as commercial loans - their need is largely consumer driven. Consumer pulls the nations productive output, so business credit needs depend on the overall health of the average consumer.
     
    #25     Feb 2, 2009
  6. I'm going to try something different, for the Feb contract i'm short expecting a fall to somewhere between 35-36 to close.

    Don't expect the March contract to follow so gone long, expecting a bounce to around 45-50.
     
    #26     Feb 3, 2009
  7. Im normally not a position trader but two potential large themes are jumping out at me.

    Im buying oil sub 40 with a first target of 60

    Im shorting the Yen from here
    No target

    Im building positions and am prepared for some downside but it does take some strong conviction from me to get involved in a trade that lasts for more than 10 seconds.
     
    #27     Feb 3, 2009
  8. The point is that I think the Dollar will fall from here, hence the rise in oil.

    Any idea where you can find the current call/put ratio's on oil for each contract ?

    To make the market I would go long against the dollar.
     
    #28     Feb 3, 2009
  9. AMT i really really need to ask you how do you trade oil when thres just sideways movement all day and like just a 1 t 2dolalrs rnage for the whole day??? :eek: :eek: :confused:


    With no big spikes of a few dollars in both directiosn, followed by fast pullbacks n reversals.... :( :(
     
    #29     Feb 5, 2009
  10. I already hit profit targets all the way up to $48.40 from my Mar QM $39.40 entries......as price cycles back down near my original entry price, I am then willing to scale back in fractions of my portions already covered with each NEW long signal. So I cycle fractional positions back in and out as I get new signals....this is to make some profits while waiting for price to move out of the current range.
     
    #30     Feb 5, 2009