So, QQQ ripped up above the 311 strike shortly into AH. The AH high is listed as 311.30. I saw 311+ for a while, now it is back in the 310s. Personally, I think that the short 311Cs have a greater than 50%, maybe 75% of assignment, but less than 100%. I'd assume that the MMs would exercise all of their long 311Cs, if they have a net long position. So retail is the variable, IMO. I'm short a few of the 311s, so I can let you know the result. I'm assuming assignment. Really don't like letting myself get into pin risk. What do you think that the odds are?
The key is where they were trading just before the exercise cutoff, so between 510 and 530pm et. It looks like they were trading below 311 most of this time. If i were to guess, I would say less then 10% will be exercised.