Tums, Joe abandoned this thread, Jack left for want of a worthy foil, and it deteriorated into a chocolate fight. I have come in to lick it up.
225, I would like nothing better than a peace, or at least a truce. BY all means, moderate. I do SO want SCT to work. THEY say it's ME. And that hurts my feelings. I know I'm stupid, but do they have to rub it in? So cruel.
this post will serve as evident that these 'fine traders' is not growing in explosive numbers due to conventional thinking. NIKE! ps. do you think a guy like this give SCT a second glance? not! trade dec12
I mean no disrespect when I say this, but seriously, you have expended a huge amount of effort looking for 'the chink in the armor' which, evidently, you feel must exist. Now, I certainly don't want to give anyone the impression that I intend with this post to tell you what to do, but if you already trade profitably, why spend any time investigating something else? If you don't enjoy profits from your trading, why not read one document to see if you can find something of value? Start with this. Maybe it helps you, Maybe it doesn't. At least, you'll spend your time more efficiently toward the one goal we all have in common - making money. With respect to your 'Objection' as outlined above, clearly, if everyone on the planet all began trading the same exact way, certainly the system could experience a breakdown or two. However, a tiny subset of the trading world (ET Membership) cannot agree on what makes up a trend (or even if trends exist). In such an environment (and considering the methods work across all markets), I do not have individual (or collective) liquidity concerns. Should liquidity (collective or otherwise) ever become a concern, I can always switch time frames or switch markets. After all, switching markets is exactly what I did (but not for liquidity reasons) when I moved from Equities to Futures. Lastly, how does one develop 'objections' to a concept before one has fully understood the concept itself? Good Trading to you all. - Spydertrader
Thunderdog, here is what I think will happen, based on what 225 would call the dialectic of history. (And no, 225 is NOT me, surely you can tell from the humor so subtle it goes right over your head, I am into Vaudeville.) I generally credit everything I have ever read that was savvy about trading to Alan Farley, and get away with it, because apparently I own the only extant, much less read, copy of his book. So here's what Alan might say, if he were dumb enough to read this thread, much less appear on ET. Based on the collective experience of amateur traders, and certainly well within Jack's pre-ALS memory, all prior working indicators became first accelerated by their users, then faded by the pro's. Here's how it happens. Let's say the price crossover of the 17.25 SMA works. Soon everybody is getting in then, and spoiling the fun. So some genius says, I'll get in early! I'll use the 16.75 SMA! He does well for a while, until the crowd figures out somebody isn't playing fair, and they do the same. The crowd accelerates again. It works again. Then the smart money says, let's make the price change happen so fast that ALL SMA's trigger at once, then we can fade the dumb fucks all at once, and we don't have to floor cycle at every odd fucking number they choose to play at. You know, large floor rotations are so much work, lets save that trick for when we really need it. So. Some smart Jacker (an oxymoron?) says "I'll anticipate FBO by a tick!" And it works! The trick proliferates. But then, it gets so bad nobody can tell an FBO from an FTT. And in the meantime, the smart money dredges up the old "fast move" trick to fuck over the latest generation of amateur geniuses.
Except, an FTT is not some manipulation of price (indicator). It is Price itself. If these really smart (and wealthy) traders manipulate the market thus that an FTT doesn't occur at the point at which it would normally occur, then another signal for change must occur someplace else. The market (any market) exists in one of two states - continuation or change. The planet doesn't hold enough liquidity to keep the market in one state or another forever. As such, one waits for the next 'change' signal to appear. No need to create wildly fantastic scenarios in an effort to somehow dissuade others from peaking behind the curtain. If the market isn't signaling change then the market can only be signaling continuation. One doesn't predict where a change will come. One takes action in response to a signal of change once it does come. - Spydertrader
Hypo I do not think enough people will ever become proficient enough with this method for it to be a problem. Most people will not stick with even a very simple method long enough to make it work.
The presentation of SCT is happening in a journal. The journal's timing is posted and so far we have just slipped the schedule one month. We will get to expert by the end of the year. At some point there will be a more detailed introduction of how to begin to optimize trading. What optimizing means is to deal with effectivenss and efficency. So far only three charts and one video have been done on how to use these charts. These charts deal with money velocity vs bar (81 5-minute bars). Thee are other charts that come into play as well. This sreies is related to volatility vs pace and bar over lap on both the 5 minute and dialy basis (1600 samples and 250 samples ,respectively.) This thread is on a beginner level so far and it is not an endeavor that has anything to do with understanding SCT or making the portential that the market offers. Your additional humorous comment above may be mistaken as something rational by some readers, so I am making an exception and posting here to suggest a couple of things that will be put on the table in the near future. We code this stuff to have a mechanical system that does the manual (and it's annotations; it also serves as an automated trading system) The coding is on three levels: the stuff you can read and annotate that encodes the market movement; the stuff that is used expressly for automating the market's operations; AND THE CODING NEEDED TO DO THE TRADING STRATEGY IN AN AUTOMATED WAY. This separate rule set that is congruent with the market's signals transferred INTO it or REQUESTED by it, deals with, as a major aspect, the capacity of he market to transfer out of the market the potential that the market offers. The four major games played in the markets, conventionally, are notable. SCT front runs these. When PTR says he deals with the state of SCT he means it. Having that in hand, then the state of the market is likewise known. If 60,000 contracts ar being articulated in the four games per 5 minute bar (skip thinking 1 minute bars contain any significant information) You can imagine that on each significant digit level of the DOM, SCT automated, can in a stacatto manner play the particular game. When a reversal is called for it can be dealt with collectively as a slug or in a manner of partial fills. If it is determined to run partial fills, then the size is determined as well as the spacing. Just as it was explained years ago on how the 17 point net was done on 100,000 shares of an exquity in 4 1/2 hours one day with 31 partial fills averaging about 3000 shares each, the same is true of a fill on 2,500 ES contracts in less than a minute when not over 10% of the contract velocity is exceeded. Obviously, we do not disturb the market by either being seen or ever stepping out of being in the minority on that side which is in control. You think you understand what can and cannot be done in the market and you are the person who has it all figured out. The consquences of your beliefs are yours to live with. You may find before the year is out that this thread is just what it purports to be: humor for the beginner element of ET. What if a person were pruposefully learning? What would a person rationally consider acquiring? What knowledge? What skill? What experience? Simply stated, I have made it my business over 50 years to study and learn in a purposeful way. I have not been through what you and the OP here has been through. That is because I used a purposeful study and learning approach always directed at optimizing extracting what the market offers as it is being offered. PVT and SCT are automated as fully articulated containers using the appropraite degrees of freedom. As any ancillary market genrated data is invented (See Sidney for example) that will be taken into account. Individuals learn this manually and now we are passing from beginner soon into more advanced levels of trading. Because you and others like you have done what you did, you get the consequence of not being able to relate to PVT and SCT. You get to do things like make up humorous lists of objections either numerically or alphabetically. I get to copy and paste them in word for an appendix of a book on effectiveness and efficiency, more or less. See chapter 20 of HTMMIS by WJO where he lists the 18 common mistakes people make. gradually you are going to see what "astonishes" you become a reality for a lot of people. For those who cannot participate as a consequence that they personally created for themselves, they get to read about it in a fifth book I will do on the connection of the mind and trading. If I get a chance to to it.
Show us the trades real time You have no right to express your arrogance and condescension. You have been at this for over a decade on trader boards. Yet, so far you are down 24% in your only trading exhibition. Show us profitable trades real time, Jack. till then -- Jack lost serious Jack. I am beginning to think you are a paid content creator.