There was a guy on cnbc last week. He was talking about netflix and it's business model and the inherent problems, debt etc. Video should be available on cnbc.
NFLX should buy a broadband provider. What's that called from the industrial era, when the oil company owns the wells, the pipeline, the refinery and the local gas station? Vertical integration. NFLX has the well, i.e., the library of movies. They have the local gas station, joe-six-pack sitting in front of his plasma screen with a broadband connection. What they don't have is the pipeline.
Just to put that into perspective that guy has been short netflix since August...the stock has gained 66% since
thats the problem..... who controls the pipeline controls the content.... Especially when the person who owns the pipelines owns the studio's and is the direct competitor to netflix....
There was a hedge fund manager on cnbc that just killed nflx. Gave it some terrible press. I dont remember the whole conversation, but he's heavily short, and thinks that nflx is not worth anywhere near 200.00 There are many reasons for this, but i dont feel like typing it all. Basically nflx and the companies they get their content from are at a conflict of interest to some degree. If HBO and these other studios wanted to, they could say f--k you netflix, we're going to host our own content. And then the shorts would gather like flys on a dead corpse.
^well... in that scenario... those companies wouldn't make any money. It's a lose-lose. NFLX has built something similar to Amazon.com in a low-cost, high profit-margin business that is strongly protected from competitiors. The company is worth way more than $10billion.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/13/business/media/13bewkes.html?src=busln And there it is.... Now time Warner.. People must be crazy if they think Netflix will not get squeezed, ALL of netflix's content is owned by there direct competitors, tell me how this plays out.... Not to mention they own the pipelines that deliver netflix...
NFLX fail... could bounce.... but shouldn't.. The ponzi model of new customers supports more content has serious flaws..
ya, very interesting. I actually happened to sell at the top on this one- I got lucky. I still keep an eye on it- the recent fall is interesting. It's not low enoughfor me tojump in early as a value buy- seeing NFLX here I'll decide to punt. If it hits 100 without any real news, I'll already be in.