In 1929, with margin rates of 10% the market eventually dropped 90%. Retail brokerage accounts have 35% margin and pdt use 25% margin. If these market conditions were identical to 1929 I could see a 65% drop from the high in 2009 or 2010. The current conditions are different enough so I don't think we will see a decline that large (65% drop from 14164 = dow target of 4957). 7000 (half price) is my gut, with a long shot (5%) probability of 5000 and 20000 based on deflation/hyperinflation scenario.
How about a Trading bounce at the 50% Fib number of the DOW. So if my super-Rain Man-like computer brain is correct, that means 7,000. Dear Santa: I would love to see a run through the 7,000 and put the fear of God in the market with a 6 handle for an hour then rally back.
forex-forex -------------- Group D-for-Dunce Group D ......They couldnât pick up a dollar bill and put it in their pocket without losing it....... the most likely next step they will fall into is group E...... Like salmon swimming upstream to spawn and getting caught in the jaws of death, so too do these traders in their ill prepared mad quest to be in group A, wanting to bypass groups C and B altogether.
Yeah, sounds about right, but at that point is might even be a bit oversold. Depends on how crappy earnings are.
Squanderville and Thriftville scenario. Dow at 1000, the Chinese are using all their accumulated US Bonds to buy 100% of corporate America and own the US economy. Itâs not going to happen. They will inflate the currency. Probably at most Dow at 6500.