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My nq price action method

  1. This is my 1st attempt at a trading journal and I will be trading the nq with price action only. For Tuesday I see 3088 as an important level, then 3099 and 3108 if we get that. I will look to make trades based off of support and resistance lh, hh ll and hl. If anyone wants to post on my journal please do so and bear with me this is my 1st attempt. Nodoji, dbphoenix, fortydraws, bighog,handle123 anyone yhat I've asked questions please give me your feedback.
  2. I will also be using supply and demand lines that are pretty new to me so please don't hesitate to straighten me out.
  3. Throw up a chart from last week with support/resistance lines as you saw it.
  4. Cool. I agree, you should definitely post charts.

    Thanks and good luck.
  5. Why the upward bias?
    Why not 3060, or even 3030? Just curious.
  6. my support levels are 3056,3037,3027. I have no bias up or down I will be completely in cash at the close everyday. I will be trading 2 contracts taking 1 off at my 1st target and the 2nd when we either have a higher low or a lower high.
  7. Here is the chart.
  8. here's the 1 minute
  9. Good luck with your journey. My best wishes.
  10. I'm looking forward to following along as you do this. Remember, your purpose initially is not to make trades, or even to identify possible trades, but to understand what traders are doing, where they are doing it, and which behaviors tend to resolve one way more often than another.

    Like Niko, I wish you all the best!
  11. I'll leave it to DbPhoenix to comment and give suggestions, but I would have a difficult time trading off either of those charts if my decisions were to be based on what I am seeing. I don't feel either of those show price in a way that would make it easy to catch the swings and turns and feel the pace of the buying and selling waves. But that is me, and maybe these suit you.
  12. I'll take suggestion from you too but the main purpose of the charts were to show my support and resistance lines, are you saying they are cluttered?
  13. Nothing wrong with you asking questions, but then a few come to mind.

    Ultimately it doesn't matter what anybody else thinks about how you are drawing your lines (using indicators, bar intervals, or a partridge in a pear tree...) now if you are not sure and haven't study your setups six ways from Sunday then definitely do not trade with real money.

    How do you know you are ready to trade with real money? When you stop asking questions like "...are you saying they are cluttered?"

    You need to have conviction in your trading, if you are in the asking for advise stage, I wouldn't be trading live.

    If I have misread your post please accept my apologies.
  14. I agree wholeheartedly with tonka. You are soliciting advice from a variety of people who hold widely differing views not only on the content of your efforts but on the process. You can create a debate among them on who's right and who's wrong, but, as tonka says, it doesn't matter what anybody else thinks. At this stage you should be researching and testing, not looking for trades. Once you have journeyed through that stage, you won't need to be asking for advice on trading opportunities: they will be obvious.

    If you're starting out looking for trades, with real money or sim, then you're starting out on the wrong foot. You aren't going to learn much if anything about this approach if you plan to make a bunch of trades and hope that at least some of them work out rather than seek to understand what are the goals of buyers and sellers. Currently there are only two levels of support and resistance you need concern yourself with, not 6 or 8 or 10. If you don't know why there are only two, much less what they are, then you haven't done the work and you aren't ready to begin trading.

    I suggest you spend your first day/week/month just observing -- and making notes on, which is what the journal is for at the beginning -- what price does and why and where and when and for how long. If you find this unimaginably boring, then this approach is not for you. You may, however, find it more interesting if you use an aspect ratio of no more than 1.5:1. If price movement is so strung out that it resembles a bad road, you will have unnecessary difficultities seeing what it's doing, and if you can't see what it's doing, you can't make any suppositions on why it's doing it.
  15. That is all I was saying, but I did not know how to say it.
  16. I will only be watching price and writing my thoughts about what I see price is doing at certain levels and where I think buyers and sellers are making their trades
  17. It would help if you were to go through the process from the beginning, explaining what kind of trader you are, what your goals are, why you chose daytrading, why you chose the NQ, etc. Otherwise, whatever comments and suggestions you receive will more likely be based on the poster's own goals and choices rather than on whatever it is you want to achieve.

    For those who are unfamiliar with the process, it is, again, here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/15535-developing-plan-trading-journal.html. While I'm sure you have gone through all these steps, your journal skips the first and second and most of the third. Those who follow this journal would likely be interested in knowing what it is you're trying to accomplish.
  18. I plan on trading the nq only. I will not hold overnight and will be trading part time as my work load permits, my main goal from trading is to become confident and proficient enough to have a choice in whether I choose to do this for my living! Thanks DB:)
  19. the main reason I chose the nq is that the volume is large enough that allows me to trade 2 contracts without alot of slippage and also from what I have observed it seems to trend better than the es.
  20. Daytrading as your workload permits is a severe handicap. Is there a portion of the day, every day, when you can focus on the market continuously, i.e., without interruption?
  21. 3070 support and 3120 resistance, db?
  22. Yes there are times during the day I can observe and I have Wednesdays off every week to observe also.
  23. And what are those times?
  24. 8:30-9am cst and 11:30 till 12:pm. plus I can replay the markets on my platform if I need to.
  25. This won't work. The market can be unbelievably accommodating, but it's not likely to be accommodating enough to provide you with excellent trading opportunities in such tiny windows.

    Therefore, all your research and testing will have to be done in replay. This should be done in 1x at the beginning so that you don't obtain an unrealistic view of time. This doesn't mean you have to go through an entire day in 1x, but you should at least replay two to three hours.

    Yes, this will take time. But the point of it is to prepare you for real-time observation and, eventually, trading. If you breeze through it, there will be no benefit.
  26. Anything to be gained by watching the over night action?
  27. Better use of time would be to do playbacks of reg. hours.

    If you are going to trade overnight then watch overnight.

    If you are going to trade reg. hours then watch reg. hours.
  28. Doesn't look like DB wants to respond.
    Sorry for butting in Slugar !. Good Luck to you
  29. That or he has a life outside of ET. :D
  30. So today I begin my observation stage of learning to read the tape, I will post how I saw todays market action afer I've had time to watch a couple of hours of market replay. Thanks to everyone who has lended a helping hand in my learning process.
  31. 10:11 failure at 3108
    10:48 lower high sellers taking control
    11:12 another failure at 3108
    lokks to me so far the bears have the upper hand
  32. 11:02 retracement
    11:08 lower low
    11:30 lower high. the selling waves seem to be getting smaller
  33. 948 and 1012
  34. 1254 new low. 125 higher low. 147 retest of 3076 low failed buyers appear to be back in control
  35. You need charts else people have to work too hard to follow a newbie journal.
  36. Once you're finished with this, explain what you learned from it. If you have no idea where to start, I strongly suggest that you read the Making Of A Method journal, starting with post 50. It's one of the best examples of a journal that are available to you.
  37. The best advice I can give you is to follow your own ideas. And keep refining them.
  38. Thanks db I will post my chart tomorrow in the am. I am off so I can observe and journal as often as I choose.
  39. heres what I saw today!
  40. Thank you for the chart, but you need to make some adjustments.

    1. Provide the date and the instrument.

    2. Provide the bar interval.

    3. Change the aspect ratio to no more than 1.5:1, i.e., the width should be no more than one-and-a-half times the height. That will take you from the open to lunch. If you want to post a second chart for the afternoon, that's up to you.

    4. Provide the context, at least the daily and the hourly so that readers know where all of this fits into the greater scheme.

    These are easy changes to make. More difficult is what you've learned from it.

    Why does price repeatedly hit the 14 level for 45m, then drop to the pre-opening price, then rise again and repeatedly hit 14 again for another hour?

    Why does price then drop all the way to 92, then rally to 3100? Why does it stop there? Why does it then drop to 90? Why then does it rally back to 93? Why, except for these brief rallies and reactions does it move sideways for over an hour? Why does it then drop below 90?

    What are buyers and sellers trying to achieve during all of this? What's stopping them from achieving it?

    When price stalls, why is it stalling? For how long does it stall? How much effort is being expended to push it up? Down?

    When price reverses, where does it reverse? Why does it reverse there? How does it reverse? Does it reverse quickly and decidedly or does it resist the pressure to reverse? How? Why?

    These are only a few of the questions that ought to be running through your mind when you're watching price. What is it doing? Why is it doing it? Why isn't it doing something else? Who's in charge? How in charge are they? And so on.

    Granted this is a lot of work, but this is what those who succeed at this do. Otherwise, watching price move is about as exciting as watching paint dry. These observations will grease the skids when you begin forward-testing. Without them, your forward-testing will take many months, if not longer.
  41. so far seems to be a lot of sellers around 3100!
  42. the biggest problem I have is not seeing what has happened, yes there were sellers at 3100 but then we made a higher low and at the 8:36 bar and now have rallied 10 points!
  43. looks to me we are going to test yesterdays high
  44. early am
  45. lots of sideways action are the buyers resting or are they out of gas?
  46. Why do you not know what has happened? Just back up. Post a daily chart and an hourly chart to provide context for what you're looking at in real time, even if it's replay. See niko's charts for an example.

    As for the aspect ratio, I'm still not making myself clear. The first chart ought to be your working chart, or, at most, the second chart. The bottom chart is not sufficient for the task. The price movement is more obvious in either of the first two aspect ratios.

  47. on the 2 minute we have had 4 retracements so far
  48. Where is the chart from?

    How are you going about capturing it?

    As to the date, I see a red smudge, but that's about it.
  49. Looks easier
  50. when I save my image to post my chart the data above my chart doesn't save, any suggestions?
  51. Again, where is the image coming from? How are you saving it?
  52. another chart
  53. These are the retracements and places to add on or enter
  54. Since all of this is being discussed on several other threads, I suggest you replay a different period, say, a year ago.
  55. Not replaying I actually can observe most wednesdays
  56. Nonetheless, I suggest you replay some other day. Otherwise you'll have to avoid reading other journals, and it's important that you do so. Plus you can replay whenever you like, up to three days at a time, or as many as you can do before your attention flags.
  57. so how i'm seeing it the 12:22 bar was a failure at the days high
  58. can't seem to be able to tell if it's just another retracement or a failure at the days high, assuming trend continuation unless mother market tells me different!
  59. looking at the whole day has me wondering if we are near a rounded sort of top with the buy waves getting smaller!
  60. seeing a hinge on the 20 minute
  61. a lower high at the 12:42 bar
  62. another lower high at 1:42
  63. a possible hinge on the 2 minute
  64. break out from hinge
  65. buyers trying to keep it above the top of the hinge

  66. a hinge just represents *indecision* thats all..

    what u see at the NQ now , is just that and u wont and shouldnt trade indecsion.. as u wont be a part of that , right ?

    the hinge might broke .. but u see no real result u can work with.

    so stay out for now , there is still a high present at somewaht 128.74 ... and we grind our way towards it .. will the high hold ?
    will it pop .. ? if it holds u know what to do.. if it pops u now what to do ..
  67. tug of war with volume picking up at the top of the hinge
  68. and out the bottom of the hinge we go
  69. 2:18 was another lower high sellers winning for now
  70. another possible hinge late in the day
  71. Although I did not trade today this is my recap for the day.
    8:32 sellers in control under 3100.
    8:44 a higher low so buyers take back control.
    8:48 another higher low buyers in charge.
    8:59 sounds like a broken record but another higher low with buyers in control.
    9:45 1st scary retracement but buyers still have THE UPPER HAND.
  72. Almost a "cart before the horse" situation it appears.

    This, and by "this" I mean using a journal as the main tool to record you observartions of price activity, and more importantly your thoughts based on thsoe observations in order to learn how to trade, is a process.

    From what I have seen here in your journal to this point, you do not seem to be applying the process in the way I understood it. If this is to benefit you at all, it needs to be more focused on thoughtful observation, and less so on real time commentary.

    I know you have looked at this thread here:


    But now you need to understand it. Do not skip the steps. Each one is integral to any success you may hope to achieve from this work (and it is work).

    Also, DbPhoenix has mentioned it, but I want to reiterate that Game's Making of a Method journal here at ET is the best journal of this kind I have seen (outside of my own - which is in a three ring binder on my desk). And Game's journey, in many respects, has brought him to understandings that I have not yet experienced for myself. It is well worth the time it takes to read it, go over the chaarts for the time periods he was looking at, and use it as a sort of model for your own. Don't be exact, becasue we are all differnt. But pay attention to the process itslef.

    You have been pursuing this trading business for a while now. You have now been brought to the right path. Slow down, plan your plan, acquaint yourself with Game's model and really try to understand each of the steps DbPhoenix outlines in his essay about the Trading Plan/Trading Journal. As he says, "the markets will always be here for you when you are ready."
  73. I am at the point right now that I understand the basics, support and resistance, higher lows and higher highs, lower highs and lower lows, retracements, 2nd entries,moving averages, hinges, breakouts and the rest of the basics, what I don't have is an exact method with strict rules and I am not ready yet to do this live but I will not give up until I know I can do this. My point in this thread is to learn to UNDERSTAND SUPPLY AND DEMAND, SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE AND WHEN I KNOW THAT THEN I CAN BUILD MY METHOD. My personality tells me that I will have a target in mind for my 1st contract and MANAGE 2nd contract and follow my rules on when to exit, or when to put my 1st contract back on. I have been interested in the market for about 15 years, tried a few times to to trade on my ameritrade account managed to lose a few thousand dollars so here I am today ready to start 100% over.
  74. While I don't want to hurt your feelings, I think I can save everybody a lot of time here.

    Pretty much all you've provided so far is commentary, which is the lowest level of "understanding", e.g., walking is putting one foot in front of the other. If you understood all this as well as you think you do, you would be able to explain WHY price is doing what it's doing. But you don't, either because you don't understand why or because you're just not interested. If the latter, then this sort of exercise is more something to be endured than something to be learned from.

    You clearly want something mechanical, so this approach is not for you. I suggest you look into something based on patterns and/or indicators. If the former, then pick up a copy of Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits by Richard Schabacker. You can get a used copy for $13. If you decide to go with indicators, I suggest you familiarize yourself with the MACD (find a copy of Appel's book if you can) and Lane's stochastics. Perhaps a combination of all of these will provide you with what you're looking for.
  75. not sure why you think I want something mechanical, you told me to say my thoughts and so I spill my guts tell you and anybody else reading this that I've made mistakes trading and what I understand about trading and what I don't understand and that I'm willing to do what it takes to learn this so I can use this along with my own system as far as which of my signals is worth taking and which ones I should pass on and I guess I'm upset you tell me that clearly I want something mechanical that is far from the truth and if you don't want to help me thats fine but you told me I have to have my own system backtest it sim. it and then trade it so tell me why what I said earlier is wrong!
  76. First, you say you want strict rules. This can't be traded with strict rules.

    Second, you've said little to nothing about your thoughts regarding what you're observing. All you're providing is commentary. Noting a higher high or a lower low is fine, but it isn't anything that a casual observer can't see.

    Third, you haven't acted on a single suggestion I've made other than to change the aspect ratio of your charts.

    Fourth, yes, you have to backtest and forwardtest a system, a system that is formulated based on the hypotheses you've made regarding your observations. But, again, all you're providing is commentary.

    There is no inherent value in trading price movement. It is not inherently "better" than anything else. If this does not interest you, there are plenty of approaches which may provide a better fit with whatever it is you want to accomplish.
  77. But thats the point maybe you're right about me not understanding but I was under the impression thats what my journal is for! how can I tell you that the nq made a higher low and explain why if I don't know why it did what it did. That's what I am trying to learn so how can I explain it if I'm not sure how to explain it.
  78. What have you read?
  79. I've read most of your post on if you can draw a straight line, I've read 3 of al brook's books, most of your ebook which has been very helpful. i guess what I don't understand is what is the diiference between the questions I ask and some of the questions you get on different threads, last week I asked you a question about a higher low and the difference between that one and the one before and you chewed me out about why would I want to go long there when everyone else was selling at that area, I get your question I just don't get why.
  80. Asking why you'd want to go long when everyone else is selling is hardly "chewing you out". Be that as it may, you need to read the threads in the Wyckoff Forum at TL. There are hundreds of charts with detailed explanations as to why price is doing what it's doing, posted by me and others. You also need to read Wyckoff's course, which is posted in the stickies there. You also need, again, to read Game's journal. It also wouldn't hurt to read the books on my reading list, particularly Trading in the Zone and The Disciplined Trader. As to Brooks' books, they aren't going to do you the least bit of good unless you want to trade patterns.

    If what you've listed above is all you've read, you have a lot of studying to do. At some point you'll want to study charts to put a practical spin on what you've read, preferably moving charts. Once you begin studying charts with intent, you'll be in a position to formulate hypotheses and begin developing a trading plan. This is of course all in the journal link I've provided several times.
  81. so I've decide to dedicate alot more time to reading the books that db has suggested and the wtckoff trading course but i wanted to give some observations about todays movement, it's pretty easy to see all the resistance at 3142 and now we are there again which looks to me to be the 5th attempt at breaking through, I am not trading this but I believe if we break through 42 there is more resistance at 48 which could set uop a good shorting opportunity
  82. Pretty easy to see on the hourly chart why the decline stopped where it did today!
  83. After the reversal the 1st sign of danger was at the demand line break at 9:52 at around 3132, pretty nice trade for those who went long!
  84. These are the only retracements I can spot from todays trading.
  85. I will be posting later on my observations for Monday later this evening. I do have a question for db.in games journal you say concentrate on the what not the why! I guess your comments to me are focused on the why.
  86. We have been in a trading range for a while and the levels to watch from my hourly chart where most of the trading has gone on are. 3060,3088,3100,3108,3133 and 3150
  87. 3148 to 3150 acting as support per dbs ebook price gets above resistance it can run pretty hard, anyone that follows the rules with supply and demand lines should be doing well today!
  88. Lots of sideways action in between each advance with only 3 or 4 scary retracements, after watching 2 hours on replay it turned out that the 1st 2 swing moves each moved around 13 points so congrats top those who were on the long side!
  89. After looking at the chart for the entire day the uptrend got a little over extended after 1pm cst and mainly drifted into the close. I'm not sure how I would have traded this had I been watching it live but from the tape the bulls were in control most of the day and the best trade would have been at the open or on the retracement to 3146.Wish I could get some help on demand and supply lines to me it was confusing today because of the early am chop!
  90. Through observations this week it appears to me that the lolr is still up for the time being. I'm in the process of working on my price action method, to me it seems like I focus too much on what other people say.
    According to the experts you need an edge, confidence in your edge and rules for your entry and exits. Some say only trade off of higher time frames, some say to scalp and some say to buy and hold. My method will be a combination of things I've learned and fit my personality and will involve price action only with the 20 ema as my only indicator along with supply and demand lines in my head. Mark Douglas says its about probabilities and each valid set up should be traded as long as you have an edge and follow your rules. The main thing is getting my mind wrapped around the fact that nobody knows what the market will do next so trade your edge, get out when your wrong and just because the set up might be the same as before there is no way of knowing for sure what will happen next. For a trade to work exactly as another every trader would have to do the exact same thing, and if you think about it that's not even remotely possible.
  91. I actually have this automated and works well enough on 18 markets. I have found through backtesting you have defined pivot strength, where to start trendline drawing to next defined pivot. Strength of pivot is how many lower highs to the left and right of highest high in so many months then finding where you can start to draw to as your second pivot, I tested for a defined number of bars before I can draw to second pivot, reason for this, too few would show too steep of a trendline and offered too many losses. I never draw trendlines thru bars, not saying shouldn't be done, but backtesting I wanted to have better defined rules.

    Method does me well, and also on intraday methods great places to exit trend trades.
  92. Volume seems to be lower on every retracement and the supply line is never broken on the 2 minute
  94. I believe there are only 2 areas to be concerned with are where the most trades have taken place. Is that correct db?
  95. Depends on your objectives. Where do the largest number of trades take place?
  96. on the ndx daily 2970-3000 and 3110-3146
  97. What I meant was where do the largest number of trades take place on any chart?
  98. At support and resistance and since the bias has been up one can assume the big players were accumulating shares at these levels.
  99. If by "support and resistance" you mean the limits of a trading range, that is where the least number of shares are traded.
  100. I was acually refering to the zones that I gave!
  101. I think the answer would be the mid point of the zone or range
  102. I saw several chances where the market gives us a second chance to buy today on the 2 minute nq!
  103. Excellent areas waiting for retracement back to EMA. I believe the heaviest of volume comes in for me first 40 minutes of day session and last 2 hours. But last 2 hours have to be traded a bit different than first forty minutes. Often times the low or high of the day occurs in first hour, and sometimes both. I have to settle for smaller targets in afternoon as much more chop in PM session. Experienced traders knows that those that lost in morning going to try to get to even in PM, so many more false moves, and can always expect the high/low of the day to be broken by a few ticks just to hit the stops.

    I have always found volume to be much more used trading stocks, but in Indexes much less so. Only times it tested out well for me is when there is divergence between volume and price. Prices going lower and volume declining, I always expect reversal. Like in Market profile, the ends normally have least volume.
  104. Why are u using an MA?
  105. I use it as a guide and price seems to respect it.
  106. early morning hinge
  107. A guide to what? And in what way does price "respect" it?
  108. If I remember correctly it acts as a trend line but no trading decisions come from trend lines unless its at support or resistance
  109. In what way does it act as a trend line?
  110. It acts as a moving trend line
  111. Clearly in a trading range and I would wait for more clarity before I would enter. The pm 3187 and 3194 is still holding price.
  112. when the moving average is moving up it is easy to see the trend is up, when it's flat then at that moment it' trendless and when it's point down the immediate trend is down
  113. To me trend line means which way the market is moving at the time, not so much where the market stops a retracement and resumes the trend
  114. If you are learning to trade PA and PA alone, I suggest you get rid of the MAs they will only deviate your attention from what is important. That is just my experience, but I have Focus issues.
  115. price seems to be holding above the last swing low of 3191.5 so demand is winning out seems to be important what prices couldn't do for the time being and that's to make a lower low
  116. now we've made a lower low 3188.25 might get tested
  117. we made a lower high now we will see if 3188.25 can hold
  118. So you can't tell whether price is moving up or down without a moving average of some sort of some length?
  119. of course I can tell but what is the difference between using a moving average as a moving trend line or just using a trend line?
  120. If you can tell, then why plot the moving average?
  121. a lot of trades taking place in the 3188-3192 area
  122. looks like another hinge on the 1 minute
  123. hinge
  124. Shall I assume that you'd rather I not post here anymore?
  125. why would you assume that of course I want your input since I am in the early stages of my journal I appreciate any feedback I can get sometimes I'm not sure if I'm being scolded or you are just trying to get me to think by asking me questions!
  126. if you look at my chart of the hinge I took off the moving average
  127. Then I'll ask again: if you can tell whether price is going up or down without a moving average, then why plot the moving average?
  128. It's always been a visual for me but I took it!
  129. Took what?
  130. meant to say I took the moving average off! Sorry
  131. All right, so why did the hinge form at that level?
  132. Because supply and demand are fairly equal at these levels
  133. Lower low at 10:20 and retest at 10:24. higher low at 10:33 so demand is in control for the short term
  134. Why?
  135. at 10:17 we made a high of 3190.50 and at 10:38 we tested it again to 3190 so a lower high sop the lolr seems to be down again
  136. This is the range where most of the trades have taken place
  137. Most of what trades? When? For how long? Why are these trades taking place at that level?
  138. Because it's the mid point between 3213 and 3155 the most recent range
  139. That would be 3184.

    What other reasons do you have for the importance of 92?
  140. besides its been resistance in the past I'm not sure
  141. When and where has it acted as resistance?
  142. been in a down trend all morning with lower highs and lower lows
  143. It acted as resistance through out the pm session
  144. Show me.
  145. what I saw
  146. This is not, however, acting solely as resistance. It's acting as resistance, then support, then the midpoint of a trading range, then resistance again. The importance of all this is confirmed by what price does at 1400. However, if you limit your observations to commentary, then none of this registers, and the exercise is essentially pointless.
  147. so we have reached Mondays pm high not sure what to think now but the lolr is up on the nq
  148. what do you mean 1400?
  149. 2pm
  150. demand overwhelmed supply when the fed came out at 1pmcst and made the announcement a lot of trades going on in the 3213 area could serve as a magnet when we get a retracement and maybe a 2nd chance for bears to have a chance to unload their shorts or go long!
  151. buyers might come back at 3215 started off as resistance after the fed meeting might become support now
  152. DB today has been very confusing to me guess I'm not sure what my next step in the learning process is but maybe it would help if you could post some thoughts on todays action so I could get a feel for what you are thinking. My take on today was a range day until the fed announcement then a series of higher highs and higher lows with only a few retracements with demand line never broken until about now and there seems to be some resistance around 3226 but it might be there aren't any buyers left at these levels but there weren't any waves until after the announcement so how would today have been properly traded? Like I said earlier the morning session was kind of a stair step down
  153. Your primary concern continues to be "how would today have been properly traded" rather than observing and analyzing the why of price movement. You say something along the lines of "price found resistance at such and such" and leave it at that. But so what? Why did price find resistance there? What does it mean? What does it matter? If you can't move into at least that level of wondering why then you will stay on your treadmill and sim trade until you get sick of it. Seems like an awful waste of time to me.

    I've made a number of suggestions, most of which you haven't acted on, such as relying on replay, and there's no point in my making them again. They're all here. I suggest that you review them, if you're interested.
  154. The truth of the matter is I work 60hrs. per week to make a living and I have three daughters and my wife to spend time with so I can't take 3 hours every day there isn't enough time for me to observe all the time. You questioned me about moving averages today and the funny thing is I read that from your ebook so I guess in games journal you keep saying the why doesn't matter but for me it's not about the what but just the why. I understand about support and resistance and I am starting to understand wyckoffs waves and such but I don't get when I post hit support here or hit resistance here why that's wrong. I get that where the most trades take place is where s/r will be and the extremes of these ranges is where the least amount of trading takes place so therefore the least s/r. I'm starting understand why the midpoint of the range is so important so I feel I'm further ahead then when I started this journal and I feel like I'm making progress.
  155. If you have no time for replay and you work 60hrs a week and you have a family to support and you've been at this for more than two years, I suggest you abandon the idea of daytrading altogether. You will never be in a position to put the money that your family needs at risk, so why not focus on something that's at least possible, i.e., EOD trading off daily charts? You'll still have to understand why price does what it does, but at least you'll have more time to figure it out.
  156. I will have funds to trade soon enough and in my opinion day trading is less risky than holding overnight, there are many ways to day trade and I really want to understand the whys of what price does so I can use that in my method, yes I do have a method but it was generating too many trades so I wanted to use this theory along with my method so I can concentrate on the better setups, Mark Douglas says you need an edge and you need to trade every valid set up your edge gives you so that's the reason I was asking for your help.
  157. Sorry. If you told me you had a family, it went past me. I can't help you with this. But there's nothing stopping you from reading and studying the material I've suggested.
  158. Why wouldn't you be able to help me because I can't spend 6 hours a day looking at a chart, I have about 2 hours available to study every day and I intend to get this figured out. My method is based on pa only and I'm not sure why you can't help me but thanks for the help that you've provided so far and you will hear from me again but just remember there are many ways to profit from the market and I'm confused why you won't help me.
  159. For Thursday I will look at todays low of 3182, the mid point of todays range 3206 and the high of today 3229 for areas to make trading decisions.
  160. You say things like"looks like" or "might be" indicating that you are still in the prediction mind set, you can only follow market not predict.
  161. So what would be a better way of saying this if no one can be sure how would I say this?
  162. You shouldn't be trying to guess what the price will do
  163. These were the best trades I saw today and I will continue to study Wyckoff but I have decided to use the method that I came up with and use the Wyckoff method to help filter trades.
  164. Hey Db the nq sold off 12 points, then retraced 2.75 points so the lower high is a good short but then the next wave down was only 9 points so according to wyckoff wave theory supply is drying up?
  165. Nice down trend today I've circle what I saw as the best places to enter notice the supply line is not broken until later in the day.
  166. In my view areas to watch for Monday are Fridays high range of 3242-3248, lots of trades took place in the 3226-3232 area and the top of Wednesday air pocket around 3195.
  167. I mean the bottom of Wednesday air pocket

  168. I agree with wwatson1. It sounds like you're trying to guess today's trading ranges ... be careful.
  169. Im long on this but its looking like a retracment to 200 average is in order :-/
  170. Are you guessing what price will do:)
  171. No, im just making an observation as it is starting to trade below 50 ma, I dont guess I just follow the general trend
  172. That is what I was doing when I gave the areas I would look at to make trading decisions, as db says you have to have a plan before the market opens and watch what price does at those areas and then make your decisions>
  173. What is your plan?
  174. The problem is your areas are subjective and so is your decision making at the time of trade
  175. Not sure how you can tell my trades are subjective since you don't know what trades I
    I've made or what my system consist of and from what I've learned so far nothing is 100% so of course some of the trades and support and resistance lines are subjective!
  176. So its mechanical then?
  177. no it's based on price action only but depending on the lenght of the move I would not take every trade. If your interested I would be happy to share some of the details but most of it can be found when I post in my journal at night and circle the best trades of the day.
  178. the best thing I've learned is that nothing is 100% and it's ok to take a loss but I need to take the best set ups within my system and I have a target for my 1st contract and i let my 2nd contract go until I get a signal to close it .
  179. Oh, ok, which ones your journal?
  180. Oh sorry this is it lol
  181. These are the trades I saw today as the best entries, I am by far good at this but that is the purpose of my journal to talk about the trades and share with other traders
  182. today was tough (for me) after that initial down move
  183. this is always tough for me what is you system based off of?
  184. From my view after the higher low around 11:08cst it would be hard to short again unless there were lower highs and we got that at 12:30 but the last swing low was not taken out
  185. Here are the best areas that I saw to enter today on the 1 minute
  186. 2nd half
  187. I'm happy to see that 2 of the three trades mentioned on another thread matched what I had marked! Maybe this is starting to sink in!
  188. Been in a range between 3205 and 3230 for the most part the last 4 trading days but still lots of available trades within the range
  189. supply line broken and lets see if we retest the low
  190. We have now retraced almost all of the move from the fed meeting last Wednesday!
  191. The demand line has been acting as support since higher low around 10:15cst
  192. These are the trades I saw as the best today I used the 30 minute for support and resistance
  193. on the hourly we made a lower high from last week!
  194. I was only able to watch a few hours of replay today but to me the trends were pretty clean cut with easy supply and demand lines and entries on the 1st retracement after the breaks!
  195. here's a better chart
  196. the charts are 1 minute!
  197. On the 1 minute chart so far itr looks like a test of the gap from this morning
  198. Here is what I saw today on the nq. the highest amount of trades took place in the 3224-3224 area therefore acting as a magnet later in the day.
  199. 3224 was yesterday's HVN and 3204 was the HVN from two day's ago.
  200. I dont understand, are you trading this system?
  201. Horton does hvn mean high value number?
  202. I am developing my system and trying to filter out some trades my system was generating too many trades per day and that's why i asked for advice from db was to use the wyckoff system to help filter my trades and it really is helpng.
  203. Ok I see, thank you
  204. The high volume node. In a search for liquidity beyond yesterday's high or low an untouched RTH HVN from a previous day may be tested. An untouched RTH HVN is also referred to as a Naked Volume Point of Control or NVPOC.
  205. Thanks Horton
  206. I've been using volume at price from bigcharts to help me find support and resistance on the hourly chart, for Monday 3204 and 3224 are both high volume areas to watch for. Also there is a hinge on the hourly.
  207. with the futures trading below such an important level (3204) it sholud not be a suprise that the market is testing that level from below!
  208. Correct.
  209. Thanks Horton now that the gap is filled the next level could be 3224
  210. The support and resistance levels from Friday came into play today. The nq had a nice uptrend today with the supply line and swing lows holding until 12:54cst.
  211. Thanks for your help Horton another piece of the puzzle I'm starting to understand!
  212. I meant the demand line!:p
  213. These are the trades I saw today as the best entrys
  214. Pretty clean looking day with 2 nice up moves and 1 down trend that stopped right on the 50% retracement mark from the low to the high!
  215. Since early am we have been in an uptrend with the double top failure at resistance at the 8:56 cst bar was an ok short then we found support at 3222 or real close to our high volume node from last week. we get a great chance to go long on a retracement at 9:34 and after that it's a matter of when you want to take profits!
  216. 12"08cst we have a double top failure so not saying a change in trend just a heads up with the demand line broken
  217. As an example of what I am looking at the 1st trade was a short with a3234.50 entry and a stop of 3237.75. 2nd trade was a long at 3228.50 with a stop of 3225.50 and the 3rd arrow is long at 3235.75 with a stop at 3234. my goal is to be trading live in January so I have more observation on my replay and more time on my demo!
  218. A good example of volume picking up at the support zone around3223
  220. Here are some of the best entrys I saw on Friday on the 1 minute chart. A trader can choose to swing their entrys or take some off at a certain level, my preference is to take 1 contract off at a pre determined level and let the 2nd run until a supply or demand line is broken.
  221. 2nd chart from Friday, notice how buyers come in at support!
  222. The high volume node of 3224 for the time being is acting as resistance on the other side hvn of 3204 acted as support this morning. I t will be interesting to see where we go from here.
  223. Pretty easy to see once the hvn support are of 3204 was breached as support the nq really accelerated to the down side, I circled what I saw as the best trades today!
  224. There were times when longs would work with the trend being down all day I only circled the best places to short.
  225. Here's what I saw today, my main focus is on trades in the direction of the trend, as of right now my system is generating too many trades although my objective is to take 1 contract off at predetermined price and let the other contract run and once my 1st target is met I move my stop to break even and if the stop is hit and the trend is still in the same direction I simply enter on a retracement.
  226. In the afternoon the nq spent a lot of time in the 3134-3144 range so when prices moved too far from the midpoint of the range I felt it was a safe short with the middle of the range as my 1st target, again depends on your objective and if you want to take 1 off at a fixed price and let the rest run or if you want to swing the whole position its the traders own choice.
  227. here are the trades from today on my demo. keep in mind I missed the open because of family obligations and I did not sit in front of the computer all day because of other things I had going on.
  228. Here are some zones to keep an eye on Monday for support, these are zones where a lot of contracts were traded and would be a likely place for the nq to slow down or stop if we get a decline on Monday.3121-3146, 3144-3159 and 3186-3216, plus I drew the mid point from Thursdays low to Fridays high and it is 3159.
  229. early places to enter on retracements
  230. in the afternoon
  231. There were some good trades today , not all the trades I've marked were winners but following demand / supply lines and entering on the 1st retracement after the break would have resulted in some good trades today, I added swing highs and lows and support when were in a range.
  232. HLC bars
  233. After trading on the demo most of the day I have come to realize that I way over trade and before I can go live the 1st of the year I have to get better at this, I had 30 trades on the nq today with less than 1/2 being profitable and still came out with over 100 ticks profit, granted this is on the sim and the fills will not be the same, I must get better at following the rules and cut my trades down to 10 or less per day
  234. I believe it been four years ago I radically changed my approach to day trading, which has change my bottom line big time. I was trading well before I made these changes, but I wanted to get where I was doing much more volume. In order to do that and still have some margin of risk control, I started to concentrate on my losing percentages by the week, worked hard at reducing percentages. Divided trading day by so many minutes to see where most of the profits came, spent incredible amount of time focusing on winning trades and breakeven trades/small lose trades. I found for ES, best times to trade were first 40 minutes and last two hours of trading session, for Nasdaq it was first 2.5 hours BUT once Goal of 10pts reached, day is either over or reduce contract size 85%.

    I think by reducing number of signals, reducing amount of time trading, having small losing percentages can give most a smoother equity curve which allows one to increase size. Overtrading takes its toll greatly on your account and body. After awhile your broker is making more money than you are.

    I hope you keep good stats so you can break down signals, as this area can reduce your protective stops, what is ave of time are you in on profitable trades, I have time limits and either change targets to breakeven plus one tick or take profit. Markets that stagnate for me often become losing trades. Doing ten trades seems like too many, 5-6 trades when you start real time should be good enough, when you are trading well, increase number but when not trading well, better to cut back.

    Good luck.
  235. with my goal of cutting back to no more than 10 trades per day I used the 500 tick chart to me it seems the price action is smoother. here is what I saw this morning
  236. and the afternoon
  237. the last 3 days have had many chances to make money, Friday for example 1 contract could have netted 30 points by following the drill!
  238. And what is stopping you?

    I prefer not to trade the normal 3.25 hour chop lunch.
  239. Afternoon session
  240. Is yours a 1 minute chart handle?
  241. Slugar, when you posted thursday chart on the SON thread, was it a 500 tick chart?
  242. yes I prefer tick charts because you will not get the long bars and to me the price action is smoother
  243. haha ok, I was wondering why all of my 1 minute bars looked different. I meant to ask u about that yesterday but forgot about it.
  244. the retracements and lines should still be the same I just prefer them so if no trading is going on you get less bars or candles
  245. 3 minute chart, I only use one minute on ES and CL
  246. Mondays action on the nq with a 330 tick chart. pretty choppy but chances to make money if you follow the rules!
  247. Here is the chart for the nq today, lots of chances to make money following the supply and demand lines I also marked all the swing highs and lows to make finding the trades easier
  248. Slugar,

    Your SL/DL lines are not consistent with the entries. There has to be a break before a retracement can be considered.

    The second long around 60-61 is a bit tricky to understand even in hindsight. How do you see it as a viable entry, even though it's the lowest point of the day? What made you consider it an entry spot for a long, and how does one recognize it in RT?

    Entries are marked on the chart before the DL/SL break. That means either your entries are early, or your SL/DL need to be tighter. Which do you think you prefer and why?

  249. Gringo, my supply line on the first long should have been drawn tighter the second long the market couldn't make a lower low so I marked it. My mistake is in the short around 1226 because we were clearly in an uptrend and since we made another higher low I marked the long.supply and demand lines are only a part of the plan I also like to use swing highs and lows to gauge supply and demand. Thanks for asking gringo
  250. The short at around 940 was clearly a lower swing high and a failure at the high
  251. Wednesday morning
  252. Wednesday afternoon
  253. are you trading with real money ? did you get a piece of that 40 point swing after the fed??
  254. . Just working on my method right now the trades are not live but where I would enter when following my rules.
  255. . Yes I caught some on the long side and some on the short side
  256. Nice...Looks like you are doing well :)
  257. . Some days the system works really well and days like thursday lots of scratch trades and whipsaws!
  258. The system worked well today! Way better than yesterday.
  259. The main thing I need to work on is being able to scratch trades and wait for the next set up.
  260. I am sure that 90% of traders need to work on that :D

    merry christmas
  261. . Merry Christmas CMB to you and your family
  262. Happy New Year to everyone on et. Here is what I saw today! These are after the fact trades that my method will have me take. great day with nice swings both ways.
  263. This mornings entrys so far on the 500 tick
  264. according to my plan entered at 3552.25 and exited on the demand line break at 3567.50
  265. short on the retracement at 3564
  266. out 3563 on supply line break now waiting for a retracement to get long
  267. long 3563.25
  268. out 3562.5 on demand line break
  269. long 3562
  270. Was gone from 1130 until 2pm cst but this is what I saw the last hour..
  271. Between 1215 and 145 the nq was in no mans land and this is where my method will struggle the most if anyone has any suggestions about what to do during this time I would appreciate any comments!
  272. over all the day was very profitable I just want to work on not giving all of my profits back. Some people stop trading at 10cst time but from 2-3:15 there has been some very good trends lately!
  273. Thursday up until noon again not all trades were winners but lots of chances to profit if you can stick to your plan and stay on the right side of the trends
  274. Friday
  275. Tuesday 330 tick
  276. Wednesday was a hard day lots of chop good day to stand aside
  277. 330 tick chart nq
  278. Thursdays action makes me wonder if my method would be better if I would set a target and be all in and all out!:p
  279. For some reason I'm having a hard time loading the chart
  280. nq thursday
  281. How is your cumulative progress?
    Your charts are clearer by the day.

  282. not only did dbs channel mark the bottom but on the 4hr it marked the top also!
  283. here is the 330 tick chart up until noon or so!
  284. Trading on smaller timeframes than 60 minute, I have never been able to back-test well enough on "letting profits ride", nor have I ever built method where risk was less than reward that offered above average returns. Long term trading off weekly charts offer the homerun trades, but not day trading for me. I normally have to risk $100-$150 to get same amount, and even a little more in Russell, otherwise noise will too often stop out trades.

    I use 60 minute charts on all markets, it is my little way to do "swing" trading. Have two signals to get in, entry on trendline and other is a breakout after price hits trendline. I normally risk $500 on these trades and seldom get stopped out.
  285. Thanks Handle it looks loke the 50% line of the move down is holding prices for now!
  286. Some trends today but kind of a choppy day
  287. The more I observe and read what db is saying the more I realize that each trader must come up with his own method. At this point I feel confident my method will make money on a consistant basis and I feel ready to start trading. I am not comfortable holding through large retracements even if the main trend is up I will not hold through a retracement larger than the last swing low but will look to reenter as soon as my system tells me too.
  288. So it's been awhile since my last post so
    I thought I would . I've been spending more time and reading wyckoff and following everyone who is using the SLA and I have to say it I've learned alot about the method but mostly how many different interpretations of the method there are. My humble opinion is that there are many ways to make money in the market but the sure way to go broke is not being able to admit when you are wrong and hoping the trade comes around and goes your way. My plan is not finished but I will BASE it around the SLA but it has to be mine if it's going to work. I don't think this approach can be mechanical but I can write my own rules to follow.
  289. If you look at the 1 minute on the qqq over the last 5 trading days there were alot of shares changing hands between $90.10-$90.20 so it shouldn't be a suprise we are testing that level.
  290. how I saw today
  291. Below the red and above the green, one of the best days on the sim for the nq
  292. Finally I think my computer is running correctly. Heres how I saw today in the nq
  293. Here is what I saw today, above the green is long and below the red is short. I am learning that scratching out for a small loss is just as good of a trade as pulling out 20 points. It's not near as difficult as we make it seem.
  294. another straight forward trading day on the nq
  295. Thursday afternoon, i marked both longs and shorts even though the main trend was down I wanted to show all trades according to my rules and notice some of the longs were profitable also
  296. pretty choppy day but following the rules netted out very nicely today. a trader must rely on his/her own judgement. listening to others will not give you an edge but rather will serve as a distraction
  297. friday afternoon
  298. Here is what I saw today in the 500 tick nq, by using a 500 tick chart I believe the price action is easier to read. Over the weekend I read about 1/2 of the book the Taylor trading technique, even though it is an absolute hard read there is good information in it and I believe combined with wyckoff and my own ideas I can pull money from the market on a consistant basis. Probably the number 1 thing I am still learning is getting out with a small loss is as important as having a large gain and also the only way I can make this work is if i take complete ownership of my method and even though I've taken alot of ideas from no doji and db phoenix my method is my own.
  299. If we get to 3670 it could set up a good shorting opportunity but I would wait until we get a confirmation
  300. So the short was never triggered until late in the day, nothing but higher highs and lows it was late afternoon before any shorts could have been taken
  301. Resistance for Wednesday is 3720 or so, support is 3695, 3670 and 3650
  302. The fact the market would not go lower around 840 cst gives us a clue that it would go higher causing a long trade at 3691
  303. short trade as prices fail to go higher
  304. even with some mistakes today the market offered 45 points trading 2 contracts
  305. Was not able to trade today but I'm exited for the chance on Friday, here is what my method shows today!
  306. What I really like about the sla is it gives you the chance to let price move some what without getting out with every little wiggle, also if you follow the rules it's possible to be wrong more than right and still make many points, this morning is a good example of that with the 40 plus point move this morning.
  307. I do believe that there are certain areas to look at for possible change of pace or direction such as the 50% level of any move but for me personally I can't watch a 20 point gain turn into a 10 point I would rather take a trade in the other direction and the reenter in the direction of the main trend in case you would have a major reversal, just my personal opinion but I can't stomach letting such a nice gain be cut in half
  308. So until about 130cst I was up around 50 points for the day then we entered the chop so the next phase of my method is going to be finding a way to deal with chop, some quit trading at 10cst but if you look at the last few weeks most of the good moves have come after then so I prefer to trade until 11 or so then resume again after 2 cst. Here are the charts for the day.
  309. after reviewing the afternoon trades the mistake I made was looking for the big reversal that never came, there were only lower highs on each swing but the double and triple bottom made me look for longs, I guess that's why it's called chop but I will review my method for chop and have more defined rules for it. Price is price whether it is shown with a line, tick bar or candle it doesn't matter if you are following what the traders are doing
  310. IMO the failed reversal already happened at 12:30. That's the only time a higher high was made all session, it retraced over 20 points but by 1:30 the NQ was making new lows. I think that kind of price action is going to keep a lot of longs on the sidelines.
  311. That was my point in saying that I shouldn't have been looking for the reversal. My plan netted alot of points today granted today there were alot of points to be made but your plan is only good if you have the confidence to follow it and today I left alot of points on the table. It's not what your getting but sometimes it's what your missing!
  312. here's a 1 minute and a 500 tick chart, there was not much difference today but if you notice when there is less trading activity on the tick chart you get less bars, so part of the reason I like the 500 tick better is because no trading activity means less bars and no reason to trade or reason to get out
  313. Here is my chart for today, another great day for the sla. looking forward to Wednesday when I can trade and observe live
  314. here's the same chart only with the 1 minute. not much difference. the thing all of us need to understand is that cash is a position
  315. Pretty choppy this morning but if you look since the open we have had mostly lower highs which has kept me mostly on the short side so far
  316. The highest volume area for the last 2 days is at the low for today so I will be looking for a test of todays low
  317. A new demand line after the test of the low but we need to make it past 3621 or I will scratch
  318. maybe I am paying too much attention to where all of the trading is taking place but 3630 could be in the cards if we get a higher low or a double bottom
  319. So the lesson I learned from today is plain and simple follow the rules period. Today was the 1st day in 4 weeks I've been negative on the sim and it came down to me anticipating instead of reacting and following my own rules, it had nothing to do with my plan or me spending more time observing, the thing that I get from studying my charts after hours is looking to see what the market does at certain levels and what my plan would have me do when certain things happen, no amount of screen time watching will help me develop a better plan than the one I have. Just discipline.
  320. the afternoon , I really wish my job allowed me more time but that's how I make my living and I really wonder how people spend time on a demo 5 days a week and still support their family
  321. Trying to be more realistic with my entry's but I also am trying to keep marking each trade according to my method .
  322. not sure if we all realize the magnitude of help we are getting from db. It could be a life changer for some of us
  323. On the hourly the top channel line takes us to 3600
  324. maybe just lucky but on the hourly the upper channel stopped price in it's tracks. the 1st chart is before today and the 2nd one includes today
  325. the reason I marked the 1st short was because of the channel line at 3600 and the lower high.
  326. Looks like we hit the top of this micro channel today and stopped
  327. nice day in the nq. once we hit the top of the channel it was pretty much down from there but I did mark some trades on the long side that fit the method
  328. could be heading towards the top of a down channel around 3660
  329. the 4 hour
  330. The more I trade this strategy the more I realize I need to combine AMT and the SLA to be consistent giving some trades more room and entering on a failure or double bottom ect. the problem I have is making a strategy that allows for this along with rules! Comments are welcome!
  331. so far today
  332. Wednesday 500 tick, I wasn't able to trade much afternoon due to family commitments
  333. Here's the 4 hour chart and if you look at the bottom of the up channel the nq stopped right on the trend line. I'm sure it's just luck but it worked today:D
  334. after the 1st 1/2 hour of chop it was a very nice trend day
  335. just now we are hitting the bottom of the up channel from November.
  336. pretty amazing on the 4 hour where the nq stopped today!
  337. Here is the 500 tick chart
  338. not positive if I'm drawing this 100% correctly but we are above the mean so 3620 could be in the cards
  339. here is the 500 tick for today
  340. looks like the top of the channel was a little lower than I had drawn:)
  341. On the weekly channel the swing low in October was 3309 and the swing low in February was 3415. Extend this trendline out and that is where weare right now
  342. Lots of debate about the sla but in my mind every time it doesn't work at least in my case it's the trader not the system, today was a great example of the potential with this approach
  343. here is the channel on the 4 hour, if this is drawn correctly 3600 could come into play
  344. I managed to pull 38 points on the nq out of the market today. The problem is 2 times I had it over 50 but managed to give some back due to over trading!
  345. Actually should have had 70 points trading 2 contracts, so I know I still have a long way to go but am becoming more consistent.
  346. Today my method generated 11 trades, I know to some that seems like a lot but I don't have the stomach to hold through 10 and 12 point pull backs. The 1st trade is a long at 3510.75. 2nd trade is a short on the retracement at 3515.25. 3rd trade is a long at 3513.50. my question here is that it's a double bottom do I have to wait until it goes above the signal bar or can I enter during the bar? 4th trade is a short at 3530.50 double top. Same question the failure at 3533 is screaming short so can I short during the bar and use the high as my stop? 5th trade is a long with a double or triple bottom at 3518.75. If I wait for the high of the bar I go long at 3522. 6th trade is a short that is stopped out then another chance to short again at 3527.25. the next is a long at 3520.50.The next trade is a short at 3538.25 that is also stopped out for a small gain. and the last trade is a short at 3536.50. My amin question from today is on the double tops and bottoms should I wait until the high or low of the bar is taken out?
  347. Where would this trade fail / be invalidated - once the DT / DB is breached

    Longer one waits... further price moves away from the DT/ DB = more risk involved

    (eta; one also needs to be cognizant of potential stop runs - very likely in low volume times)

    I'd also say waiting for a H or L to be taken out - is a totally different trade

    What do you think?


    On another note

    What is our consistent actions / mainstay of our trading plan (think of this as a test)

  348. Comment on DT / DB

    Fact is we don't know they are..., until after the fact..., and it too late to trade

    What we do know - price is reaching a level - that, not in the too distant past - was rejected

    So - to determine if it worth wild to trade this not yet confirmed DT/DB - what do we need to do/ need to see??

    Otherwise we may be pissin money away trying to trade against a continuation / BO

  349. Looking for a level that has been resistance or support in the past?
  350. the fact is we don't know all we can do is get out when our edge is no longer valid

  351. Identify the direction (recall / use the definition of an edge)

    Identify / wait on an entry (which includes a low risk stop loss)


    Wait till it time to exit

    Exit – for a profit.., or a loss


    No matter.., this never changes


    This would be the core of our trading


  352. This one - not sure what is address (I'm confused)

  353. I'm looking at my pre market prep work and as of right now I am looking to see where the nq is trading. What the big picture is and where we are at in the current trend. Also area's in the premarket that might have been support or resistance. Am I missing anything else?
  354. Couple of ways to trade what we think is a DT / DB

    One – would be to enter a Buy / Sell stop mkt order - placed above / below the potential DT/DB

    It an order.., that when hit - gets you into a trade - as opposed to a stop loss that gets you out


    Other – read price

    Trading TF;

    What I don’t want to see – price breaching the DT/DB level

    What I do want to see – reluctance / resistance / weakness - coming in – near / at that level

    On the Lower TF (micro view into the structure of bar(s) on my trading TF

    I want to see;

    Possibly a failed re-test (could be two adjacent bars)

    Lower – or at least equal – H or L (depending if it a DT or DB) on adjacent bars

    Possibly a thrust away from the potential DT / DB area… a return for a retest – which fails

    Time; Is it near the opening of a new bar on my trading TF (start noticing what occurs when a new bar opens)

    Another scenario;

    Price hits the area.., is rejected - then skirts off - at these times - a breach of the LHs formed on the lower TF (in a DT & price moving down)..., or..., a breach of the HLs formed on the lower TF (in a DB & price moving up) would be the stop


    Iow.., we’re looking for clues and cues price does not want to breach that level

    Make sense?

    Go back and review the DTs / DB’s on a lower TF – see if you can pick up on the clues

    If not post both charts (your trading TF and a lower TF) and let’s see if together we can pick out the signs

    Sherlock Holmes..., I presume :)


  355. You’re trading futures – I trade stock… your premkt..., I presume..., is much more active than mine

    That said – allow me to talk out of both sides of my mouth (may as well get used to it we are after all bi-directional)

    Learning to trade;

    I think it beneficial to start at the bottom (a small TF) …, learn how price works there… then move out to bigger and bigger views (TFs) – specifically learning how small(er) TF bars make up large(r).., and ever large(r) TF bars

    (remember though.., it is all the same information - simply busted into what ever time one chooses)


    Actual trading – is the exact opposite (again imo)

    First and foremost – always remember.., price does not act on only one plane – it works on both the horizontal and diagonal

    That said;

    Always start big picture and work your way down

    Look at price from the last turn (1Q 2009 or thereabouts) – create a channel – Where is price in that channel?

    Move to a shorter view (TF) – identify the S/R areas (identified via the way I described in PM) – Where is price in that?

    What about the trend from the last swing on this TF (not to be confused by the aforementioned turn.., on the overall) - create a channel encompassing that - Where is price in that?

    Now you have a horizontal and diagonal map

    Important notes:

    Don’t go crazy making lines – a few is good – to many is plain confusing (ultimately you’ll need to decide)

    Make sure every line you copy from one TF..., to another TF - is copied exactly… and I mean exactly

    From one TF to another the scaling is skewed (nature of the beast – more or fewer bars in the same basic physical space)

    Nothing is more confusing… or more frustrating – than conflicting lines on different charts (one tells you this…, the other tells you that… and meanwhile price is saying something totally different – pure frustration because we don’t know what the hell)

    Observing the premkt

    I can’t really say.., because I don’t know… in general terms look for rejections / thrusts / ranges – and make note of them

    Ultimately – you’ll need screen time.., observing to see how (or if) these come into play during RTH

    If you don’t have a journal – please get one.., or two

    One for capturing trading specific notes…, one for capturing you specific notes

    You can use one..., but please use it

  356. Happy Easter to all of my et friends
  357. Example I posted a while back in another thread attached



    Support = Demand = Buying = Strength


    Resistance = Supply = Selling = Weakness

    different words used to describe the same exact thing (PA / Context / Conditions / Price Bias)


    Price bias is exactly that - Price's bias... not our bias

    We keep our self separated..., neutral (centered)..., and objective - whenever we're unable to do so.., we stop trading until we can


    Happy Easter to You and Your Family as well

  358. Ran out of time editing the above post

    To add to the terms strength / weakness


    But (and again talking out of both sides of my mouth)

    The term Weakness - is also be used to describe a condition - where price is moving up - but slowing (in the form of more selling / shorting..., less buying)

    as well

    The term Strength - can be used to describe a condition - where price is moving down - but again slowing (in the form of more buying..., less selling / shorting)

    Either could be the prelude to a pull back / retrace / reversal / consolidation (range) - or not

    Trading PA means we're constantly evaluating & looking for clues

    Note on context;

    Clear.., concise context is absolutely vital..., not only when deciphering PA's clues/ signals/ reading PA..., but also when determining the meaning of the term(s) we use

  359. Another test Slugar (trading is full of em – may as well get use to it)

    Attached.., are two sets of channels

    One set represent an up move…, the other set represent a down move

    The two up move channels are at the same angle…. As are the two down move channels


    Comparing the down move channels against each other


    Comparing the up move channels against each other

    Other than color – what is different…, what does that difference mean…, what does that difference represent

    This all in the context (and effort) of reading PA

  360. Rn, you have a lot of wisdom to share, keep it coming.
  361. TD,

    Thank You Sir for kind words

    But Ya know..., just a dumbass redneck doin what i can (already told Slugar.., unequivocally... and ultimately - it is up to him - as it is for all of us)

    All the Best Sir

  362. the buying or selling pressure is such that price isn't allowed to go very far from the channel line
  363. So RN is using volume at price a good place to start as far as looking for support or resistance?

  364. This answer leaves me with the impression you’re seeing / making up things – that aren’t present

    Allow me to pose it again;

    Comparing the down move channels against each other


    Comparing the up move channels against each other

    Other than color – what is different…, what does that difference mean…, what does that difference represent


    Work with what is present - 8 lines.., comprising 4 channels - 2 up move channels...., 2 down move channels

  365. The only difference I see is the amout they travel from one end of the channel to the other
  366. I always agreed with the saying " everything you need is in the charts" but am realizing I didn't understand the full meaning of that statement.

    Thanks for sharing some more of the nuances. I see these patterns and shapes all day but didn't really think what was behind them and the potential meaning of them.

    To me at this stage of my progress, its like a sea saw, which way is it leaning, not a guarantee, but a probability.

    I remember a teacher saying that you can look at something but not necessarily see it, thanks for helping me "see it".

  367. First.., a comment about the terms S & R


    S &R can come in the forms of;

    a specific price / an area (horizontal range) / or a boundary (diagonal range - such as in the form of a channel)

    From a trading perspective – they are the same – meaning they have similar properties…, and similar affect – on price

    The only differentiator is price’s location / reference – to each

    iow - the context

    An area / price / boundary - above price – is typically called resistance… however.., once price moves above this area / price / boundary – it is then called support


    Please keep this is mind – as we discuss PA… and as you look for cues & clues…, you trade PA


    Okay…, on to your question

    Volume – either present in abundance.., or noticeably lacking – are foot prints of the big boys (not all the foot prints – but two important sets)

    The big boys create the S & R – albeit in the form of a price..., an area (horizontal range) / or a boundary / boundaries (diagonal range(s)) – via their action / inaction (trading)

    We must always be cognizant of these

    My long winded answer to your question is; absolutely


  368. The difference is the width of the channels

    Wider the width = more volatility

    Volatility = indecision/ lack of control

    Narrower the width = lack of volatility

    Lack of volatility = predominance of control


    The narrower channel up = buying in control = move likely to keep on truckin

    The narrower channel down = selling in control = move likely to keep on truckin

    Whereas the wider channels equate to more indecision – likelier the move is nearing its end (at least for the time being)


    All part of reading PA

    Nuances matter a great deal in this business.., and will make all the difference


  369. Yeah..., its a matter of developing one's eye

    Similar to an art expert's - ability to differentiate good art from the bad - I imagine

    (an art expert I am not by any stretch)

  370. btw.., not only is the width of a channel important.., and a cue/ clue

    But so is the angle of said channel

    It another important cue/ clue to add to the mix when reading / deciphering PA

  371. A thought to begin each tomorrow

    Trading is a pay for performance occupation

    Each day;

    Show up – prepared
    Keep your head down – work your ass off
    Check your opinion..., and ego – at the door
    Be on your game – and 100% engaged
    Stick to the core of trading – come hell.., high water.., repeated losers
    Make thinking optional..., as it usually detrimental


    Conduct a gut check each morning…, and periodically throughout a session – to ensure this is

    When not…, go fishing / play golf / take up knitting…, possibly even basket weaving

    Just a little sumthin to ponder

  372. The prep work before the trading day starts is one area I will put alot of effort into in the coming weeks
  373. If you draw the trend line from 3740 and extend it through the high in 3/11 we are sitting right on the trend line so today could get interesting. with the mid point of the down move being 50 points below around 3500
  374. Would you mind posting a chart ?

  375. For some reason my computer at work won't let me upload the chart but I will from my pc this afternoon
  376. Slugar

    We discussed the volatility & S/R aspects of PA a bit – and can more if you wish

    How about we broach the MTF… and signal aspects

    Recall I trade off the 5

    15 the bias / S&R areas / interim bias

    1 min – fine tune

    How many signals can you identify on the 1 or 5 (see attachment)


    Suppose we should spec out what some of the signals we’re looking for are

    Same Bar;

    Close below open = weakness / potential down move

    Close above open = strength / potential up move

    Close = open = indecision (when multiple O/C clumped together on adjacent bars.., these areas can act as S or R later on)

    Adjacent bars;

    Lower H’s (forming a down move TL)

    Higher L’s (forming an up move TL)

    DT / even triple tops

    DB / even triple bottoms

    Retests that failed

    Pullbacks (moves back to the TL – either ascending.., or as a range)

    Range BO – either up or down


    As you do this – don’t make shit up… call out only what’s there / you can see

    Don’t assume / don’t form an opinion / don’t guess / don’t act as if you know

    Simply follow the bouncing ball – no more / no less

    Questions – ask

    Recall – more than one way to skin this cat….

    I’m sharing.., ultimately you’ll need to find your way – hopefully some of this helps you do that


    I've highlighted each 15 min bar - on the 1 & 5 TF charts....

    Which also means every 3 - 5 min bars - is highlighted on the 1 min chart as 15 bar increments

    Trying to make it easier to delineate between TFs - and intra bar PA

  377. on the 1 minute I see a lower high short at 955, a long on a higher low at 1030, another higher low at 1045 and 1115. plus they were all bounces off of trend lines
  378. here's the channel I've been using
  379. after today
  380. 500 tick

  381. That 8 - 15 min bars is some of the cleanest PA I've seen in a while

    It also the very foundation of reading PA....

    Before adding more layers..., may I suggest you take some time..., bust it down..., and understand it

    All the signals I outlined are there..., plus quite a few more.

    Adding any additional PA aspects at this point will serve only to confuse you

    Please print it out and break it down - it is the very foundation

  382. I've already printed it off were those places you would have traded. and by outlining do you mean the reply with the charts, and also what did you think of the chart I printed of the nq?:)
  383. Not only would have.., did

    Not necessarily..., unless you deem it useful

    This is about you..., and for you..., not me

    Whatever I throw out there - use what you like.., chunk the rest

    I'll post the way I see it... but ultimately the important (and only) thing is - that it makes sense to you / you can use it / trade it

    Chart to follow

  384. This is how I see it - right or wrong

    The middle horizontal line is not exactly 50% between the upper / lower horizontal lines..., it needs to come down just a bit

  385. Moved the line down a bit

  386. I thought when drawing a down channel I am suppose to start from the high and run in through the next swing high
  387. Draw all lines / channels / whatever - to capture what price is saying (behavior)

    Important above all else

  388. On average about how many trades per day can I expect? And do you swing trade intra day or scalp
  389. How long is a piece of string - iow too many variables

    Your skill
    What the mkt offers on any given session
    How long can you stay focused / in tune

    btw..., this is trading..., expect nothing - ever

    For all intense purposes - I'm a day trader - and do every day that I'm not sick/ on vacation / it a holiday

    I also swing trade a few things in a separate account.. but never talk about that aspect

  390. Would you mind looking at my 500 tick chart and see if you think I missed something. I'm trying to day trade but not over trade and am trying to limit my amount of trades. The question I have is when you have a method that's profitable Douglas says you must trade each valid setup so I guess I need work on the valid part
  391. My first questions

    What is/ are your set up(s) - aka entry signals (be very specific for each please)

    What are you looking for in terms of context (again be as specific as possible)

    If the 500 tick is your trading TF - what is you lower TF..., and what is you interim (next higher) TF

    Hard to tell if you're over trading until I figure out what you're looking for (context & entry wise... and how you derive each )


    Douglas - is gold in my book

  392. Slugar

    Here is some of the soundest advice I can offer

    Pick 1 set up - doesn't matter which one

    PB / Range BO / DT / DB / LH / HL / something else

    Take that 1 set up... get on sim - and trade it.., and only it - till you're blue in the face..., till you can trade it just about blind folded

    Learn its strengths / weaknesses / when appropriate to use / when appropriate to sit on hands /

    Learn to recognize it..., as it's forming

    Get comfortable taking small losses

    Then take it live

    When ready..., add a 2nd set up.., then a 3rd.....

    This way takes longer..., but is a solid approach to becoming consistent

  393. Thanks RN I really appreciate you taking time to help with my approach!
  394. Couldn't trade until 10200 cst but here is the 1st trade of the day. A long off of the double bottom at 1024. I have my demand line drawn and will stay long until broken or fails at a swing high

  395. Good Trading Slugar

    Reason for entering – DB…… check

    Way to manage this trade – draw an up TL – that a break of would trigger an exit… check

    Now.., just one small (but MOST IMPORTANT) detail missing

    What… oh what…. could that one missing detail be

    The saying “never trade without one” comes to mind


    We don’t get paid for entering a winning trade…, we earn our money by managing all trades



  396. You Betcha :)

  397. My stop was at 53.25:)
  398. short on the lower high at 3555.25 initial stop at 3557.25 moved to one tick above minor swing high at 3554.25
  399. moved stop to 53 just above supply line
  400. In summary;

    Trade 1;

    Setup – potential DB – enter long
    Target / way of managing – breach of up TL
    Stop – 53.25

    Trade 2;

    Setup – potential LH – enter short
    Target / way of managing – ???
    Stop – 57.25 / later moved to 53 even


    Fill in the question mark – you have 2 well planned trades…,


    2 trade plans.., each appropriate for the current PA conditions (current at that time)

    (We use our methodology.., to identify an edge…, appropriate for the current PA conditions)


    Manage each trade per its plan …, on to the next one


    Tomorrow FB earnings after the close (important to know the times of such things)

    Yippee ki yay

  401. Thanks RN I'm getting better and I think I know when to pull the trigger need to work on strict rules for exiting and study more market profile so I can get better at support and resistance. not a bad day I managed 18.5 points on the nq without trading the big early swing due to some errands I had to run. I will post my chart in a while with my trades plus the ones that should have been taken.
  402. There is a member; Ammo - hangs out in the ES journal - he uses MP - and is good at it - maybe study some of his posts

    Just don't hindsight it - learn whatever there is to learn - then and move on

    No need beating yourself up over the past

    Good Job Sir

  403. Thanks RN I've been in contact with ammo and he is very willing to help. The trades I mark will be the ones I took and should have when I was away
  404. todays trades using the 500 tick
  405. Before commenting on your chart…, allow me to go off on a little tangent


    When to combine signals / when to keep them separate

    This is theater of the mind..., so work with me here

    The scenario;

    A down move.., containing 3 signals;

    1 - DT
    2 - LH’s - which form a down move TL
    3- PB - in the form of a range - to the down move TL – which ultimately breaks out to the down side

    (initially just think – price is moving down from a newly formed DT)

    We’re watching the chart

    And see a DT form (could be adjacent bars… could be the two DT bars are separated by some number of bars –no matter it’s a potential DT forming)

    We short it – the stop is a breach of this DT (strait forward)

    Now instead…, we miss the above entry and price goes on to create a LL

    Do we trade this as it were a DT – no…,

    Unless price retests and fails at / near the DT – which would equate to equal H’s (for a triple top)… or a LH (price only got near the DT)

    So from the above LL – we’re likely no longer looking for a DT trade…, but instead looking for a LH entry signal

    (and 2 or more LHs can be connected to create a down move TL

    Price creates 2 LHs – which we can short – and our stop is – a breach of this down move (LHs) TL…

    But no longer would it be a breach of the DT – that trade signal has gone and went.., if we didn’t take it initially

    However.., if we had entered short @ the DT – we certainly could use a breach of this down move (LHs) TL as the stop


    Price creates.., say 4 move LHs (at a steeper decent than the initial 2 LHs) – then proceeds to PB…, in the form of a range…, to the initial down move (LHs) TL

    While price is in this range;

    Could we use the DT signal or stop – no, we’re way past that – if we didn’t take the DT short initially

    Could we use the down move (LHs) TL – possibly – recall I said price was in a range – pulling back to this down TL

    Could we use a B/O…, to the down side…, out of the range…, as an entry signal – certainly

    Our stop – a breach of the LH (down move) TL / breach of the top of the range (it’s the same)

    Now.., if we had entered the DT short… or the initial down move (LHs) TL – we could also use the same (as described in the last sentence) – breach of the down move (LHs) TL / breach of the top of the range –as the exit

    My point

    We need to constantly distinguish and separate when one signal evolves into the next

    We can use a failure of the current signal as an exit for the previous entry

    But never use a failure of the previous signal…, as an exit.., for the current signal


    Another way you can “bounce these signals off one another” and read price

    DT = weakness / down bias (price’s bias)
    LH = weakness / down bias
    Range B/O (which btw.., if nothing has changed – then which way should price break out) to the down side = weakness

    Price doing this in a relatively tight channel = lack of volatility / consensus / predominant control

    All that equates to what = down/ weakness/ short it


    Whether knowingly or not.., today on your frist trade – you used 1 signal to enter (DB)…, then the next signal (breach of the up move (HL) TL) to exit – which is perfectly acceptable

    But did you realize that

    Also – now can you see why I want you to break down that one attachment – the more signals you see in succession – lends credence to what price is doing… and very likely will continuing doing

    Realize though – this is but one of the reasons (there are several).., you need to really understand that attachment I posted

    Hope this makes sense - if not - let's break it down - this is a fundamental to really reading PA imo


  406. Focusing only on the down move TLs / entries

    I’d say 1.., 2.., 4.., 5.., and 6

    We’re drawn entirely after the fact

    Missed the initial move (thrust) down price made – then it appears keyed off the secondary down move to draw the down TLs

    And if that true – then I must question the validity of shorts – A…, C.., and D


    Down TL 3 / Short B – I get that one.., no question

    I’ll next focus on the longs

  407. Focusing only on the up move TLs

    1 – Not connecting the lows (reference my poorly drawn :p red TL) – entry is fine
    2 – Beautiful line / entry
    3 – Beautiful line / entry

    eta - There is not an overall down TL drawn - which is okay - but realize the bias (hence short signals) stand the best chance

    Not to say going long is not valid... just any long - be prepared to exit quicker / expect less of a favorable move

  408. The reason I didn't mark the initial short was because I wasn't around and I didn't mark any pre market trades. So the 1st short was off a retracement in an obvious down move
  409. short c was at resistance and short d was a lower high at the down trend line so I thought it was ok
  410. Not nitpicking - just observations

    Nothing is obvious - ever (like expecting - nope)


    On another note - make sure to rest Sir - tomorrow we do it all over again


  411. C - I can buy - but the stop a little big possibly??

    D - There were several lower Hs at the down thrust from C - what about those - and what makes "D" special / stand out enough to short near the top of it (eta my mistake - I can see why )

    If you'll add in the signal you use for each entry - it'll stop me from guessing (I suck at guessing)

  412. Here is my chart of the nq 500 ticks. Trade 1 was a retracement to the supply line. Trade 2 was a double top short that I should have given my 1st trade a little wiggle room with. Trade 3 was a long that was stopped out break even with the demand line break. Trade 4 was a double long. Trade 5 was another short on a double top that was stopped out very quickly and then a re short on the retest of the double top that I should have just used a break of the double top as a stop. last trade was a long off of the demand line.
  413. You sound like a trader... and.., based on above - trading like one

    Trade 1/ 2 - we enter / we exit - based on what we see... never knowing what the next tick holds - nothing wrong exiting 1.., then re- entering right back @ 2 - that's what price said to do

    Trade 3 - stopped @ BE - sweet

    Trade 5 stopped out quickly - the reentered short immediately (because price said to) - epitome of trading

    Actually all of them..., are examples of what make up good trading


    Thank You for adding the signal / stop - lot easier than me guessing

    Get some rest - we'll do it all again tomorrow

  414. Thanks RN you're the best!
  415. Naaa - we're just a couple of dumbass traders who know nothing :p

  416. Slugar

    I know you want to study MP... so for now I'll step back and out of the way

    You have any questions I may be able to answer - just say so Sir

    Good Trading :)

  417. I'm mainly interested in mp for support and resistance. I will post my charts every evening and I would love your feed back! Thanks RN
  418. onward we go then

  419. Here are the trades for Friday on the 500 tick chart. 1st trade was a short on a retracement to the supply line. Trade 2 was a short off of the steeper drawn supply line.Trade 3 was a long on the retracement from the demand line and also a higher low. 4th trade was a long from a higher low that was exited at the double top which was the 5th trade and a short which was exited on the trend line break around 1:30. thanks RN for taking time from your busy schedule

  420. Trade plan (we create for each trade)

    1.) Signal / entry
    2.) Initial Stop loss
    3.) Target / way of managing trade

    The plans for each of your 5 trades is / are incomplete

    When trading..., our actions must be in step with price… to do this we must always be one step ahead of price in our planning (so we know what we will do when price does ????)

    An incomplete plan - leads to indecision

    Indecision leads to many things..., none of which are good
    (as usually we only have a few price ticks..., or seconds to act prudently (loss is still BE or low)


    Before I comment.., please fill in the missing pieces of each of your plans – otherwise I’m back to guessing

    I suck at guessing


    Here’s the pared down version of your post

    1st trade;
    short on a retracement to the supply line.

    Trade 2;
    short off of the steeper drawn supply line.

    Trade 3;
    long on the retracement from the demand line and also a higher low.

    4th trade;
    long from a higher low
    exited at the double top which was the 5th trade

    5th trade;
    short which was exited on the trend line break around 1:30


    With a complete plan – I know what to do next

    When I know what to do next – I could give a crap what price does - I'm covered either way

  421. Are these actually realtime trades? (no broker arrows on charts for entries/exits?)

    If they are, you don't need any help! You catch the exact tops/bottoms most of the time, so just carry on and make nice money.

    Good luck
  422. Pinkman

    You're full of shit - his plans are incomplete

    He may do well sort term - but sooner or later he will get bit in the ass

  423. And certainly not from a king-of-hindsight, Monday morning quarter back! :D

    Keep it up, dude.
  424. Slugar

    Do we take a break…, and show this village idiot the error of his ways (if so I’ll take the lead)

    Or keep on truckin

    Your journal…, your call Sir

  425. Moron.
    You're the one who jumped in with insults when I wasn't even talking to you, but instead asking the OP a question and in fact complimenting him on his apparent success!

    For someone who's so unproven, you've got an ego the size of Russia and lots of issues.

    Grow up.

    Sorry Slugar. As you were.
  426. We'll wait and see what Slugar decides :)

  427. 1st trade entry 3562.25 stop 3565.50. Exit when supply line is broken. 2nd trade short 3548 stop of 3551 exit when supply is broken. 3rd trade a long at 3526.75 stop at 3523 or when demand line is broken. 4th trade long at 3535.75 stop at 3530 or when demand line is broken. last trade short at 3539.50 stop at 3542 exit when supply line is broken
  428. I've reached out to RN for his help and will continue to do so as long as he is willing to answer my questions unlike others that ive reached out to.
  429. So RN when doing prep work for the following day do I start with s/r. The 2nd item is the trend which on the daily is down. 3rd item is where we are at in the trend. Currently the nq reversed off of the upper channel and fell almost 100 points. The next support is around 3485 where extra trading has taken place.
  430. Onward we go

  431. Trade plan (created for each trade)

    1.) Signal / entry
    2.) Initial Stop loss
    3.) Target / way of managing trade


    1st trade

    1.) short on a retracement to the supply line / entry 3562.25
    2.) stop 3565.50
    3.) Exit when supply line is broken.

    Solid trade

    Question regarding 3.) above though – breach of the overall supply line…

    Or the near term supply line - made by the red bar w/ the wick (almost center of your first red circle)… and the next long red bar)

    Or a breach of the intermediate supply line - made after the 3 green bars (8:36 ish)

    I don’t know the PA that precedes the first red circle – but if you look there are a couple of things going on

    A DB – before price swings back up the to the over all supply line (8:41 ish)

    And.., once price swings back up and puts in the DT – there is essentially a range – encompassing the 2 DTs and the 2 DBs (8:30 - ~8:46 ish)

    Just something to be aware of as the session is unfolding

    Later.., at the bottom of the move down from the DT…, notice how price consolidated a bit (5 bars) at the bottom of the range I mentioned (8;51 - 8:55 ish) …, retraced to ~ the halfway point (50%) of the range.., then resumed down

    Additional sign of weakness

    2nd trade

    1.) short off of the steeper drawn supply line / short 3548
    2.) stop of 3551
    3.) exit when supply is broken.

    Price pulled back…, but never made it to the bottom of the range I mentioned above – close to the bottom.., but not to it (further sign of weakness)

    This move / area could also constitute as a DT entry (1 top just prior to 8:49... the 2nd just after 8:49)

    Good trade

    3rd trade

    1.) long on the retracement from the demand line and also a higher low / long 3526.75
    2.) stop at 3523
    3.) or when demand line is broken.

    This one I question a bit

    The demand line;

    Appears like you drew it off the body.., and not the wick/ tail

    Yet other lines – you’ve drawn off the wicks / tail

    I would respectfully suggest you pick one method and stick to it (wicks or bodies) – I use the wick / tail

    Another aspect I question – you went long into a range (9:45 to ~9:50) – had you considered that??

    Last aspect – I think the risk was a bit much for the conditions

    Bars 10:11 / 10:12 / 10:13 make HLs and a demand line (up move TL) – why not make a breach of that the stop and reduce your risk by almost 1/2

    4th trade

    1.) long from a higher low / long at 3535.75
    2,) stop at 3530
    3.) exited at the double top which was the 5th trade / or when demand line is broken.

    I question this trade also

    Higher low – from the low @ 10:08??

    If so.., what queued you in this was a HL

    I see price testing the top of the range formed @ (9:45 to ~9:50)

    I also see another range just above your entry @ 10:31 to 10:38

    My opinion (only) with all the weakness throughout – this trade is very risky – if I had gone long – the target would be top (test) of the 10:31 t- 10:38 range

    The stop for my long would have been 3551 (absolutely no room – it either works…, or fails and I’m out)

    last trade

    1.) short (DT I assume) / short at 3539.50
    2.) stop at 3542
    3.) exited on the trend line break around 1:30 / exit when supply line is broken

    Solid trade


    General comments

    I like your clean charts (minimal lines) – makes it easy to focus on PA / trade signals


  432. Trading (vs learning) Always use the top down approach (learning use bottom up)

    Overall TF; create/ identify – the trend & channel

    Intermediate TF; also create / identify – the trend & channel…, AND also the S/R areas

    Where is price in each of those

    (recall the horizontal / vertical map)


    Iow.., potentially price could fall a f’n long way....

    3 possible scenarios

    Buying steps in.., and drives price up

    Selling steps in…, and continues driving it down

    Possibly an attempt to make a new intraday zone as a reference

    (could be S.., or R.., just depending if price on top or the bottom of this zone)

    Be ready for any combination of these

    But no matter - keep your head down..., create your context... create a plan for each trade - trade each plan - move on



    This is not a prediction – just an observation…

    mkt has been ignoring pretty much all decent to good earnings this past week

    And Monday’s have a habit of being down days

    We never know.., but time will tell


    If you want – create a channel of the overall…, and a channel / S&R areas of the intermediate – then post it...,

    We’ll have a look and see what we see

  433. 4 hour
  434. The granularity on this chart stinks.., but it's free

    It has a 5 hr TF setting.., not 4

    To get the horizontal levels "close" - I switched to the 15 - as it's what I'm used to

    Then switched back to the 5 hr to mirror your chart as close as possible

  435. 1 hour support and resistance horizontal
  436. 2500 tick
  437. 2500 with mid point
  438. What I'm about to say - may want bounce off Ammo (always more than one way to skin that cat)

    I identify S/R areas as zones (have an upper and lower limit) - drawn as horizontal channels

    Only time I'll use a single line is when price hits a level - and is immediately rejected (either up or down)

    Think a long tail/ wick..., or possibly even a solid bar


    But typically I denote S&R as zones.., and draw them as horizontal channels

  439. That is a clean channel....

    Only question - does it go far enough back (capture enough of the intermediate PA)

  440. My thought - S&R zones are too big to be usable

  441. Make a plan for each.... then work each plan to completion

    Good Trading Today

  442. Thanks ammo
  443. For those who only do Price Action, this has always been one of my favorite entry signals. I call it "Weak Hands Signal".

    I wait for trend to change as in a Close beyond a trendline, then in so many bars, price must come back to trendline for entry in direction of trend. Reason I call it "Weak Hands Signal", often many get in on breakout of trendline then put in their breakeven or protective stops and market comes roaring back to give them the loss or breakeven losses they so richly deserve (I say this cause if one doesn't learn from mistakes like me when I first started, you can do this stupidity for a year or more.) Of course I miss out on the trades that don't come back and I get nailed for all losses, BUT, I profit on many more than I lose with this signal. Now of course this is but 1% of a system and entries means but a very small part of a completed system, and the 99% is called Money Management where the profits come.
  444. Stick a fork in me – I done

    For anyone who takes (interprets) what I post – as trading is easy

    Today was anything but – for me

    Felt like a yo yo – I was up/ down so often it was simply pitiful

    If not for the volatility (which I’ve said numerous times makes up for piss poor trading.., and I still hate) – likely I’d be down

    Just could not find my rhythm to save my ass – and I traded piss poorly

    Any way – quitting while I’m up



    Thank You for sharing Sir

    I especially like the built in.., easily identifiable – small stop

    Good stuff :)

  445. Mondays 500 tick. 1. Double bottom long at 3523 stop of 3521. 2longon a.retracement to the demand line 3540.25 stop 3537 exit on the double top. 3 short on the double top at 3560.50 stop of 3562.75 exit on the supply line break. 4. short on the lower high at 3550.25 stop of 3553.50. exit on the supply line break.5.short at 3529.25 stop of 3531.50 exit on the steeper supply line break. 6. short on the lower high at3510.50 stop of 3513.75 exit on the supply line break.7. long at double bottom 3484 stop of 3481.50. last trade long at 3492.50 higher low and bounce off of the up trend line. stop 3488.25 exit on demand line break. Seems I am re entering a lot in the original direction of my trade. not sure what to do about this?
  446. the afternoon
  447. RN that's why you are a successful trader you know when to stop:)
  448. initial resistance between 3560-3566. support 3528-3521. if we get below 3521 then 3491-3487 may come into play

  449. We'll address this..., after we address below

    Trade plan (created for each trade)

    1.) Signal / Entry
    2.) Initial Stop loss signal / Stop loss price
    3.) Target / Method of managing trade


    Missing data – recall I suck at guessing

    Trade 1

    Double bottom / long / 3523
    Stop 3521.

    Trade 2

    Retrace to the demand / long on a. line / 3540.25
    stop 3537
    exit on the double top. (on / or a breach)

    Trade 3

    double top short / 3560.50
    stop of 3562.75
    exit on the supply line break.

    Trade 4

    lower high short / 3550.25
    stop of 3553.50.
    exit on the supply line break.

    Trade 5

    short 3529.25
    stop of 3531.50
    exit on the steeper supply line break.

    Trade 6

    lower high short / 3510.50
    stop 3513.75
    exit on the supply line break.

    Trade 7

    double bottom long / 3484
    stop of 3481.50.

    Trade 8 (last trade)

    higher low long / bounce off of the up trend line / 3492.50
    stop 3488.25
    exit on demand line break.

    Redundant..., ain't I :)

  450. You're too kind Sir :)

    Thank You


  451. 2 of the zones make sense

    Lower zone.., I would move the lower line down a skosh.., then add another zone in the middle (see attached)

  452. My plan is to ride the trend until it tells me to get out I'm not sure how I set a target for this
  453. Then skip the target... and explain your plan for managing each trade

    brief and specific - for each please

    If your plan is "break of the TL made by the HLs... or LHs" so be it.. but include that

    This is your plan - for each trade (it may appear redundant - but it needs to be second nature while trading)

    And short and to the point

    it also give me insight to how you're reading a chart / PA

  454. I think everyone learns the hard way, truely "No pain no gain". Longgg ago an old trader told me this "Long term go for homeruns, day trading go for targets", I had spent years trying to make him wrong, then one day I thought this old guy has several million in his account, stop questionsing the backtesting. All markets has an "average" profit that is attainable most of the time based on time of the day, mornings can get more than afternoons. I gave up long ago of "letting profits run" cause of the fact that when I could have gotten so many points then watching it turn around. If you doing breakout trades, you are giving up usually half of some swing, from the distance of a low to finally getting in, that's why so many trading books mention taking the distance from a low to entry price and doubling to get exit.

    What I keep seeing of this journal and countless many others is very little on the other 99% of the method, the getting out. I use to have students go bar by bar and each bar had to have a number on top of it which represented what was going on. Sort of a checklist for each bar had to be completed then a number given.
  455. Yup

    I’ll get him there.., may take some arm twisting… or pissin him off a bit – possibly even some kickin and screamin

    So be it

    First though – we gotta start where he’s willing

    This is interesting



    I'm not asking you to do unnecessary work - quite the opposite - I plan every trade

    Otherwise.., I'm clueless..., and resigned to guessing (no consistent profit had from guessing)

  456. The back and forth between you two (slugar and RN) has been great. Thanks as I'm picking up some nuggets of info also :D
  457. The Nasdaq is certainly the best market to profit in for day trading, I won't say the easiest but it is closest for anyone suceeding cause it is so forgiving if one gets in wrong, almost all my trades in this instrument I can get out at breakeven plus one tick, let the newbies pay for my fees. I think it is imperative to concentrate on not losing very often, lower one can get losing weekly percentages, if it gets under ten percent, then you can average down on each signal so on trades where you ultimately get out at breakeven, cause you averaged down, you end up cleaning up as you exit all contracts at the original entry price plus a tick or two. Years before I would have had winning percentage of 50%, then 10% losers and 40 breakeven trades, but now cause I average down I get 90% winners and 10% and less losers. The only downfall of this though are days when I get three losers in a row are huge losing days, my losing days greatly bigger than winning days, but have worked very hard to not have a couple per year of these.

    I throw away all my methods three years ago to just concentrate on low losing methods, which always means spending all my backtesting time into Money Management rules, "numbering the bars", certainly not invented by me, I have many older books on trading some dating back to 1920s when there weren't any computers, I bought out the business section of a bookstore going out of business in LA area back in the 80s as they had many older books out of print. Actually store them in a safety deposit huge drawer, LOL. Books that are the best for me were John Hills books in late 1970s, all done before home pc came out, most of the charts are drawn by hand. Just an incredible amount of information for like $50 each. By far people have made hundreds of systems sold based on his works. I still read each twice a year and gain more from them.


    Do you include Volume in your trading? I started several months ago cause I wanted more consistent reversal extreme trades(after an extended move), or at very least know when the end was near. I look for increasing volume at lows and decreasing volume at highs.

    Time to trade !!!
  458. I'm learning alot also, trying to pick RN and handles brains but in the long run it has to be my system or I won't stick to it. But RN has been very giving of his time to nurse me along:)
  459. So RN yesterday on my 1st trade my 1st target would be the last swing high around 3541. Is this the kind of pre trade plan you are talking about?
  460. Today another day of doing the same.
  461. slugar"plan to ride to target ,not sure about how to do it"
    http://i.imgur.com/tWyXkfW.png this is a 3 mo daily in nq,too many marks,so you reduce it to a 3 mo 2 day chart
    http://i.imgur.com/MC0Ya5X.png any part of a cleavage touch is target enough but if we keep rising , your nearest target is 74,if broken, then that wide nip at 77-83 area,the wider the nip , the better chance of a turn
    http://i.imgur.com/GgBBhxn.png the uvol dvol is better than 2 to 1 ,trending up all day so a fade needs a tight leash

    learned this one from handle 123, if you reduce the dom down to 1 total bid/offer size, you can watch for a confirmation of a turn ,the offer volume has been higher on this move up, when the bid volume takes the lead,look for a turn,trade to size
  462. Thanks ammo this makes perfect sense, for today I used the 30 minute nq and came up with 3560-66 area as resistance. was i reading this right?
  463. yes ,you want time frame to encompass move it's retracing,watching at least 2,should always go back and look at a much larger timeframe, when we do get big institutional moves they are fast and its nice to have the numbers ahead of time,often they are looming near the small numbers and you arent aware of that large mine collapse
  464. on a 3 yr we brke that horizontal line 557-540, so in theory this is a weak retrace ,that is no longer strong supp or resistance , the built up,leftover longs and shorts have diminished, that 580 line may be a strong res,using that theory as we reverse towards that nip(557-540) and then back fill to that lower cleave at 3321, think rawhide,gil favor(gs)is driving the cattle(us) so if you can figure what the drover is doing and then work out all the trails and water holes along the way

  465. 500 tick. trade 1. higher low long at 3540.50 stop 3538 target last swing high 3558 2.short lower high at 3549.25 stop of 3552.25 min. target 3540 area of last swing low.3. short on a double top 3544.50 stop 3547 target 3528 top of support zone.4. long on a higher low at 3539 stop 3536.50 target 3551 swing high5. short at double top 3550.25 short 3553.75 target 3543 swing high. 6. long double or triple bottom stop 3551.25 target 3560 resistance
  466. support and resistance for Wednesday
  467. Oh Lord...,

    They've gone and kidnapped Slugar.... then someone..., prepared to create complete trade plans..., has done gone and logged in under his alias

    Guess I'm done with the guessin



    Based on the quality of the recent posts here... before I review the above Slugar.... let me go off on a tangent..., and from the ground up..., build some worthy content

    It'll take a few... but should end up with 3 or 4..., maybe 5 attachments that'll
    hopefully make sense

    Today..., FB was a poster book for this

    Back in a few
  468. This first set - and taking Ammo's comment about herding price

    1st attachment - I scrolled the chart over to hide today's PA

    2nd attachment - I scrolled it back to uncover today's PA

    This type of herding is not uncommon

    (orange vertical line separates today from yesterday)

    More to come

  469. Times when price is between 2 zones on a bigger TF….

    Use the very same method…, on your trading TF…, and see if a zone exists there

    Pink lines denote the intraday zone created today (question is, can you see it)

    Note; normally I do not have volume turned on - on my trading TF.., but turned it on for this


    The green box – is a trade back into that zone

    Trade; DT to a LH short / 57.88
    Stop; breach of DT / 57.99
    Target; top of zone / 57.48 (I chose the top instead of the bottom as there’s been strength present )

  470. Normally I do not like to trade @ / near the open… rather allow things the volatility to settle and price show its hand

    Unless a clear opportunity presents itself

    The green box – is the trade (noted on 1 min..., and 5..., but used only the 1 min for this one)

    Trade; Long @ 55.11 / .12

    Stop; breach of lower zone / 55.97 (but I’d be seriously considering exiting…, for a loss.., if the open of the 1st bar (which is/ was the mkt open) – had been breached by the 2nd bar (on the 1 min)

    Target; top of zone / 56.58 (and I exited immediately – opens are too volatile to mess with)

    premkt.., price had been moving up and into this zone (apparently it wanted to be there)


    I am not suggesting trading the open – rather this is an example of how to use zones to set up trades

    back to our regularly scheduled program

  471. Correction..., We'll...

    We'll get him there (Slugar / Ammo/ H123 / and some dumbass redneck)


  472. The odd couple

    (I have dibs on being Oscar)

  473. Yes Sir

    Time.., volume.., and price - throw in some lines..., boxes/ rectangles

    I look at volume as - traders with the clout - are doing something - in preparation for something - best I take heed

    Here's a couple regarding volume

    On a lower TF - look for higher volume spike (relatively speaking) just prior to a PB

    In a range / think hinge - volume will drive which way price heads out (typically)

    And I'm not talking about volume on the B/O bar - rather volume inside the range

    B/O volume - is the B/O real

    3 phases to B/O volume

    volume necessary to break price out

    volume created by the stops being hit / traders reversing / initially entering

    Then the telling volume - the batch that either drives price out and away.... or the lack of which - sucks price back in

    There is a great deal... and a great many nuances to volume - as there is with time... and PA

    I love em all dearly

  474. No doubt...,

    On a B/W TV..., w/ no remote - then B/W TV w/ mechanical remote


  475. 500 tick.

    trade 1.

    higher low long at 3540.50
    stop 3538
    target last swing high 3558

    Notes/ observations

    This UMTL (up move TL) is messy – look where it begins – at neither the wick end or the body – be precise
    Target = last swing high/ 3558 = why…, how did you know it was the last one…, or even that price would create it

    trade 2.

    short lower high at 3549.25
    stop of 3552.25
    min. target 3540 area of last swing low.

    Notes/ observations

    Solid plan

    Aside – you appear to be picking up on shorts better than longs???

    Trade 3.

    short on a double top / 3544.50
    stop 3547
    target 3528 top of support zone.

    Notes/ observations

    entered..., either a little too late.., and took some heat… or a little too early (prior to the retest of the DT) – its always a judgment call – and easy to arm chair QB (by me)

    The stop may be a little tight..., based on the PA in that area (the 9:18 bar actually breached the 9;12 bar)

    The DMTL here (down move TL) is drawn sloppily (wick or bodies – pick one and stick with it)

    Trade 4.
    long on a higher low at 3539
    stop 3536.50
    target 3551 swing high

    Notes/ observations

    Price breaches the UMTL – yet you enter long there – why - I’d wait till a HL (which respected the UMTL) and enter there – clearer PA / tighter & clearer stop

    trade 5.
    short at double top 3550.25
    short 3553.75
    target 3543 swing high.

    Notes/ observations

    Ugly PA.., and price is actually in a range (~9:48 – 10;11)

    Granted the short worked – but I’d have sat on my hands

    Range BO down w/ resistance not too far below (note the range put in during trade 3)

    DTs/ DBs are solid signals – just realize a byproduct of theirs is always a potential range forming

    The DMTL needs to originate back on the 9:46 bar.., and connect the 9:55 / 9:60 wicks (at a much lesser down angle)

    Those are not DT / TT – they are actually LHs (precision is important)

    This whole area is also a range

    Trade 6.
    long double or triple bottom
    stop 3551.25
    target 3560 resistance

    Notes/ observations

    I see a DB w/ a breach (false BO down) – which could lead to a B/O down - or not

    A range

    A false B/O up

    That is some messy ass PA

    Move down – price is in the range formed around trade 5

    Move up – price is at the high of the session so far

    This PA is saying it doesn’t know what it wants to do (direction to head)


    This whole chart - price moves.., creates a range... moves again..., creates another range - iow bouncing from range to range to range (and if there is not a range - it creates one)

    indecision - personified

    perfect example.., why day trading targets - works..., over holding (hitting a home run)


    Well written plans

    Good job Sir

  476. 1st trade long at 3550 stop 3546 target last swing high 3558.5-3560. out at 3558.50 17 pts
  477. Play off yesterday's intraday zone

    Have the patience to let price drop in it - buy - it pops back out - exit


    see ya this evening

  478. okay - I lied

    2 intraday ranges (1 made today) and price sititng in the longer TF range


    Time to sit on hands till the dust settles - no need beating one's head on the wall

  479. There was a remote back in the 50s, "Kid, turn channel to Rawhide", back then TVs were consoles sitting on the floor and if family dog was sitting on floor, he be covering up whole screen, LOL. Funny, when TV first turned on, you would hear a quiet "bung" sound as the "tubes" were warming up since all TVs back then had like nine tubes. And when TV went out, you would take back of TV off and look for the tube that was blown, go down to grocery store and test it, buy another one and reinstall, Bamm back in business. Folks have a wire going to the roof for the antenna until the "rabbit ears" came out for on top of the TV. Only had like 3 main channels and then channel 13 was always UHF and had handful of snowy channels. Yeah, lot has changed.

    Nice trade Slugar !!!
  480. Still sittin

    a B/O, but no follow through

  481. thanks still need lots of work on discipline
  482. still sittin

    negative B/O



    I trust you're not taking these posts as me showing off - rather a simple exercise in reading PA Sir


  483. price BO w/ with follow through

  484. price hit the blue line (bottom line of a longer TF zone / and target)

    I'm walkin the talk

    Back to sitting

  485. You post as much as you would like RN I am waiting til after the fed to do anything
  486. Go figure

  487. Me too now

  488. another BO - real or not

  489. See if the (lower) .29 line holds

  490. .29 line - nope

    but there's volume coming in

    we'll see where it goes

  491. result

    now - the next 5 seconds could bring on something different - evolve and roll with it (price)

    personally - I ain't got a clue.. never do

    just readin and rollin

  492. BO finally worked

  493. price is back down to .66

    Typically I don't trade after 3:15 - PA gets too wonky

    Stick a fork in it

    for the record; my last few (5) posts - I did not trade - simply posted what I saw

  494. I did not trade after the announcement today. The day ended up being an up day but I had a hard time reading the pa

  495. It'll come - with screen time and experience

    What is utmost important to us...

    Did you plan each trade - then work each plan exactly (absolutely no deviation)

  496. I was in way too much of a hurry and tried to catch every move. Need to be more discipline and trust my support and resistance zones. will post my charts later
  497. Remember

    Ultimately..., success will come from within Sir :)

  498. After the 1st trade which in looking back I shouldn't have taken because it was in chop I had a hard time reading price action. here are the trades for the day that my plan would allow me to take, these are on a demo and are not all live.1. long on double bottom at 3550 stop 3546 target last swing high of 3558. 2. double bottom long at 3542 stop of 3538.50 target swing high at 3558.this was the only decent trade I took. last trade a short at double top 3568.25 stop 3570 target last swing low of 3555. which we did not reach. all in all a very hard day I am still working on using support and resistance zones as places to place trades. today I was trying to capture every move and did not practice the discipline needed to be successful.
  499. While I'm writing commentary on your plans.., take a look see

    It not completely straight... but close enough

    I'll be basing my comments off it

  500. My initial thought; your TLs look a lot cleaner / precise/ and similar in approach / methodology creating them

    Sweet :)


    After the 1st trade which in looking back I shouldn't have taken because it was in chop

    Careful with the hindsight analysis…, rather learn from it and move on


    I had a hard time reading price action.

    It happens to us all – sit on yer hands until price’s intentions become clear(er)


    Trade 1.

    DB long / 3550
    Stop; 3546
    target; last swing high of 3558.


    I don’t see a DB
    I see a BO
    I see HLs
    But no DB

    I also don’t see the 3558 swing high target

    The Stop;

    Yes price is in a range… of which you entered when price was at the top of that range – risky

    Your stop is at the bottom of the range – maximum loss

    This is one of trades – that it is either going to work... or not

    Tighten your stop to just beneath the – well really there is no good place other than the bottom of the range

    Ugly PA that’s hard to create a clear trade plan for

    Trade 2.

    double bottom long at 3542
    stop of 3538.50
    target swing high at 3558.
    this was the only decent trade I took.


    Only comment here – you entered lower than on trade 1 – yet your target stayed the same

    That has the “appearance” you are calling (expecting) a bottom / turn.., or a big ass range

    When entry is lower (than the previous trade) – so too should the target (for longs)…

    Same as when entry is higher (than the previous trade)…, target should also be higher (for shorts)

    Make sense??

    last trade
    short at double top 3568.25
    stop 3570 target
    last swing low of 3555. which we did not reach.

    Couple of comments

    When entry higher(than previous trade) …, target should also be higher (for shorts)

    That yellow highlighted range was in play for the target – as it was for the majority of the day

    Top of this range made for a good target for this trade didn't it... (being the hindsight bastard I am :D )


    I am still working on using support and resistance zones

    You posted earlier in the day – (paraphrasing)

    ”You need to learn to trust your lines”

    Realize our aim is not to draw your lines.. or my lines (and the truth of the matter is.., I don’t trust my line either)

    We must draw price’s lines

    We must trust price’s lines

    Then we can trade / press against those lines all day long

    That is what trading PA is all about - PA


    I was trying to capture every move and did not practice the discipline needed to be successful.

    Please address this in your journal – talk open and honestly with yourself

  501. By trying to capture every move I didn't follow my method paid no attention to where we were at in the overall trend and didn't pay attention to where we had been
  502. Sorry - I meant in your personal journal.., not this journal

    Have an intimate conservation with yourself and try explaining why

  503. That has the “appearance” you are calling (expecting) a bottom / turn.., or a big ass range
    When entry is lower (than the previous trade) – so too should the target (for longs)…
    Same as when entry is higher (than the previous trade)…, target should also be higher (for shorts)
    Make sense??

    RN: May you please help to elaborate why you think a lower[higher] long [short] entry than previous trade the target should be lower [higher]? I guess you are talking about fixed profit target set in advance.

    Please help to comment whether the following makes sense: suppose no fixed profit target and only use trailing stops to manage the trades. For the 2nd long, 3 good size green bars bo and close above yellow zone top, prob more up to use a higher PT; For the short, in reality long bottom tail bar touching yellow zone top prob showing more up so exit around its close ; but suppose if a strong bear bar close inside yellow zone with no bottom tail then prob showing more down to use a lower PT. Thank you very much.
  504. Huyang

    I'll respond to your entire post this evening Sir

    In the meantime - and to you last point/ suggestion..., my most important and over riding directive is this

    Slugar could give a shit how I trade..., he could care less what I woulda.., coulda... shoulda

    And I respect that completely..

    I'm commenting on what he did... not what I would have done.. or not done - and that is the way it needs to be

  505. Slugar

    Absolutely no pressure today - whether you trade or don't

    Observe.., fiddle around with creating context....

    If a juicy signal comes along - so be it... and if not - so be it

  506. RN: thanks a lot for your quick response for the last part. I was trying to ask you whether what i wrote/thought does make sense. I had no intention to suggest anything. Why did i ask you the question? i found out it is challenging how to exit (much more challenging than entry). For entry, we have much more time to decide whether it is the signal we are looking for and we have the freedom to choose not to take if not sure; but for exit, we have to make decision in real time while PA could be totally different from what we see in the past and sometimes we have to act very fast if not using prefixed PT.
  507. thanks handle very much appreciated

  508. When entering long @ a lower price.., lower than that of the previous trade’s entry price where you also went long – price is / has been moving down

    So unless one is anticipating a reversal – it reasonable to think the target for this second long would be lower than the target for the previous long

    Same for entering short @ one price… then entering short again on the very next trade but at a higher a price – the target should be higher for the second trade – because price has / is moving up

    Please realize – I said this in the context of Slugar’s trades

    Yes I could cite examples where..., what I said would not necessarily apply – but I’m only focused on his trades


  509. Order types / what to use (the 64 thousand dollar question)

    How will one manage trades – actively / passively

    How liquid / illiquid the instrument

    How volatile

    How much size is one trading

    How is one trading

    Entries – Mkt / Limit / Buy Stop

    Stops – mental / entered and resting / possibly trailing

    If mental – will it be honored 100%
    If resting – does it rest out on the exchange.., on one’s computer…, at the broker
    If trailing – need to account for volatility/ momentum fluctuations

    Targets – enter a resting order @ target..., use a trail stop..., use a mental target & actively managed

    These are but some of the considerations… all of which are very personal and need to be customized to the trader/ environment & instrument being traded

    No one size fits all

    My only feedback – strive to simplify everything you can with regard to trading (what I deem simple - you may not..., and visa verse)


  510. First; Slugar never realized that yellow zone existed

    Second.., and more importantly – there are 6 bars hitting the top of that yellow range – how many does it take before exiting… taking profit.., looking for the next entry

    Price could have gone either way - we simply never know

    Can’t argue with this Sir…

    But again - we never know - and if price had closed in that zone..., then I would have waited to see which way out of that zone it was headed..., or how it was setting up inside that zone

  511. Made perfect sense Sir

    I never thought you did... I was simply explaining where I was coming from

    Please share your thoughts - it is important - and.., that's what we're doing - sharing :)

  512. Tis in fact the world in which we play :)

    Best to always have a plan - otherwise chaos could easily consume us.., and our actions

  513. trades for today 1. long on a double bottom 3574.50 stop 3570.25 target 3585 last swing high. 2. long on a higher low 3577.5 stop 3572 target last swing high 3587. 3. higher low long at 3592.50 stop 3590.50 target? 4. double top short at 3605.50 stop 3605.75 target 3591 swing high. last trade lower high short at 3590 stop 3594. target 3575 923 double bottom
  514. General comments;

    Like your range – whenever price in its vicinity – use it by extending it across (see 12:55 PM to end of chart)

    There is a narrower zone above it… and a small zone (aka range / aka hinge) at the bottom

    Like your lines – but – 2nd UMTL should be tighter (see my attempt to draw it)..., then fanned once price breaches it..., then resumes the move (assuming it does resume the move)

    Your UMTL is a perfect fan..., and where it touches – the 2 bars – are HLs (I drew a blue circle around them) -

    Potential trade plan based on these HLs
    HL, long
    Stop - breach of TL
    Target - breach of TL

    Your DMTLs;

    The red one I drew – is the initial
    Next one you drew – would be the first fan
    Last one you drew – would be the next (and final as it turned out) fan

    price is saying; I've stopped trying to go back up - I'm heading down


    Needing to fan lines - price is saying its momentum is waning (true on either an up move…, or down)


    Trades for today

    Trade 1.
    long on a double bottom / 3574.50
    stop 3570.25
    target last swing high / 3585


    I don’t see the DB
    Why not a stop of 2570.75 (manage risk first)
    I don’t see the last swing high
    UMTL is just a little loose (me being picky)

    Trade 2.
    long on a higher low 3577.5
    stop 3572
    target last swing high 3587.


    Stop is a little too liberal – other than that – solid trade (notice the horizontal cyan line I drew for the target )

    Good job - remember to always manage risk first

    Trade 3.
    higher low long at 3592.50
    stop 3590.50


    Target? = (1st target is the cyan TL I drew ( the potential DT – which is also a break of a tighter UMTL – yours would be the 1st fan)

    If you exit there @ the DT – you could then reenter on the DT breakout and use your UMTL to manage the trade (stop = breach of it / target = breach of it)

    Or short..., if the DT held

    Trade 4.
    double top short at 3605.50
    stop 3605.75
    target 3591 swing high.

    I like it – and because PA up – your target took that into consideration (not expecting the reversal.., or as deep a PB)

    Very nice

    last trade
    lower high short at 3590
    stop 3594.
    target 3575 923 double bottom


    Given the range – you drew.., and I extended out – I think the target too optimistic

    Takes real effort for price to break a large zone – granted it tried – initially – then retested the top of the range – and finally got to the bottom of the zone – but no further

    Trade is solid

  515. thanks RN I will keep plugging along I really appreciate the time you have put into helping me. Says a lot about someone helping a complete stranger
  516. Just two traders doin what we do :cool:

    You are Very Welcome :)

    btw - strangers - in not ever meeting - yup....

    kindred in the crap we must go through & endure to get this.... that no one else on earth would (or even could) understand - it... or us

    Yeah baby

  517. RN:
    Thanks a lot for your prompt detailed response which is very helpful. Currently i learn to trade NQ and NQ only, a beginner. I will respond later after i have finished reading Slugar's journal and very likely will need to ask you more questions. I appreciate your kindness very much.
  518. Huyang

    We must remain mindful - this is Slugar's Journal.., and Journey

    btw.., I don't trade futures - rather I'm a stocktard

  519. RN: It was very kind of you to remind me. I will definitely be mindful about that this is Slugar's journal. I mentioned learning to trade NQ implicitly indicating my questions will be directly related to Slugar's journal because Slugar trades NQ too. Reading carefully the detailed response from you and other traders regarding Slugar's trades would have already answered many of my questions. I will try not to ask you more than 3 questions. PA trading in essence is similar for all different kinds of markets, as far as i think. Thanks.

  520. RN
  521. Callin it a day

    Monday was a bitch - today - not so much... good idea to reward yourself when you can


    I'm going to repost your chart from yesterday and highlight something

    back in a few

  522. This goes back to the statement I made about S&R…

    And how S&R work the same... and how they are labeled based on their relation to price


    I noted 3 areas – with a purple lines and circles – where R flipped and became S

    When trading – I don’t mark these areas (makes the chart too cluttered) – but I do see em…, note em in my head… and play (trade) off em when they are in play

    Iow – I use these realtime…, as another confirmation data point (always searching for the clues and queues)

  523. Just missed a good size DM

    Doesn't matter - I called it a day

    Point is;

    Learn to separate & let go - relax - there will always be another trade waiting in the wings

    Too often we try to make things happen - makes for stressful trading - and costly mistakes

  524. Yabba dabba do

    RN, can you define some of your abreviations? I not too bright. grin
  525. Which ones Sir

    DT - double Top
    TT - triple Top
    DM - down move (I trade moves... not trend - which is not to say I ignore the trend - ever)
    UP - up move
    UMTL - up move trend line
    DB - double bottom
    DMTL - down move trend line
    TB - triple bottom
    S&R - we all know :)
    BO - break out
    BOD - break out down
    BOU - break out up
    Zone - range
    Any others??

    btw - I sometime use the term TL - for diagonal or horizontal lines - they do / serve/ represent essentially the same things


  526. LH - lower high
    HL - higher low
    RBOD - range break out down
    RBOU - range break out up
    SL - stop loss
    UMTLS - up move trend line stop (breach of the TL)

    wtfaid / wtfait - what the F am i doing / what the F am i thinking :p

  527. Thanks RN I will post my chart later but it might be this evening
  528. RN: Reading your comment of lower long entry requesting a lower target which I finally understood your thinking and recalling sometimes my 5+ps winning trade becoming a 1ps profit or even a 5+Ps loser and Handle123's sharing day trading using a profit target, it is all about balancing catching the potential profit, probability of unexpected abrupt PA, and individual traits on decisiveness and thinking speed and acting fast capability. What I learned is the following: No profit taking strategy is perfect; just need to choose one strategy and stick to it.

    As what you have said, having a plan to guide the trading is the key. I totally agree with you about simplicity; just simplified the trading plan because easier to follow in real time and a complicated plan may not improve performance much but with the difficulty of not remembering certain details when trading. Moreover, you talked about the need of trusting ourselves in NoDoJi's journal; a simple trading plan will make us feel easier to trust we will follow the plan in real time and to be in a detached mode.

    I have finished reading Slugar'sjournal, seeing you have been carefully guiding Slugar's moving in the right direction in his rhythm and interest and Slugar's posts have clearly shown much improvement. My only question: I wonder whether you are willing to disclose your plan or vision how you will be helping Slugar's trading from now to May of next year? I understand the process is dynamic; so your sharing doesnot have to give much details.

    The purpose of this quest: knowing your vision will definitely help traders who are self-coaching and at different stages to stay on the right path. I know trading is personal , but I also believe other's journey or vision can be insightful. Probably my question is not suitable, then please feel free to ignore my question.

    Thank you very much!
  529. Absolutely agree… and I would add…, never change strategies in mid trade - yet remain adaptable to unfolding PA

    Very well…, and eloquently stated Sir

    There are more ways to trade successfully than I care to count

    Trading success.., ultimately…, comes from within

    I believe these statements with every fiber of my being


    Having said that – I have no real plan – other than to hang out with Slugar for as long as he is willing to put up with me – be that however long

    My plan;

    I can take what he posts and provide feedback / options/ possibly another way of looking at it / or thinking about it

    When he comes across stuff he’s unsure about.., or wants to explore – we can talk it through.., then he'll make up his mind

    To let him know – all the bullshit / doubts/ frustration / uncertainty/ fears - he goes through – been there to – and it’s okay

    He’s reach out to others and got told – essentially – do it my way – which is bullshit… and I’m not here for that

    I do want him to seek out other traders – and learn from them (every trader I know.., including me.., has piecemealed together their system/ methodology / approach – by taking bits and pieces from several others)

    Slugar knows – beyond any doubt – ultimately – it’ll be on him to succeed – that it must come from within – that ultimately It’ll come down to this

    Enter every time a signal materializes
    Trade works – hold… exit for a profit
    Trade fails – exit for a BE/ small loss
    On to the next one – no matter what
    We never know

    I know this.., because I’ve told him

    This journey is tough – at times lonely – and filled with a lot of crap – that few appreciate - let alone understand

    My vision…, is to be a sounding board… a shoulder… a colleague…. And when necessary – a royal pain in his ass

    I’m doing the same for jas_in_hbca as well


    The next logical question would be; why would I do this / what’s my angle

    That is my business…, and it holds for these two…, as it did for NOD (though I think she is beyond help at this point – :D – hope she reads this)

    At this point in my life I could care less about saving the world – but I’ll stick by these 3 come hell or high water...

    Soooo.., let’s just say I’m following my gut

    Your question is perfectly legit - NEVER be hesitant to question every thing.., and every one - in this business - ever

    You are Very Welcome Sir

  530. I'm going to post my chart on Saturday I worked 12 hours today and coached my daughters softball team for 2 more I'm beat and going to bed. Thanks for your support RN
  531. 1st trade short on a failure at3601.50 stop 3604 target 3589. 2.long on higher low 3586.25 stop 3582 target swing high 3597. 3.short on a lower high 3593.50 stop 3596.75 target swing low 3578.4 long at 3578.75 stop 3571.25 target break of up move trend line. 5.long on lower high 3578.25 stop 3576 target 3586 swing low from 919. 6. double top short 3590.50 stop breach of double top target swing low 3576. last trade
  532. RN's comment about seeking help from other traders is spot on . Handle 123 and ammo have been exceptional with contributing to my method.:)

  533. Enjoy every moment – it passes all too quickly

    Just dropped my youngest off…, first day.., at his first PT job – bittersweet…, Yes Sir..., very bittersweet that is

    Back in a moment

  534. 1st trade
    short on a failure at 3601.50
    stop 3604
    target 3589.


    There are 3 bars making LHs – (butt up against the DMTL – and also respecting the DMTL (my green circle)

    Make that the Stop Loss – and reduce your risk by 6+ points

    If it had failed – get out… go searching for the next entry


    Think how much work it is to regain a loss… think the toll it takes emotionally – the toll it takes sitting through it

    I am not saying enter / exit / enter / exit – like a spastic monkey – but clearly if price had breached that DMTL – then something has/ or is about to – change sediment wise

    Sitting in a losing trade - to me - is like having an anchor attached to your ass and it dragging you down to the deep 6 (mentally speaking)

    Exiting said losing trade frees you up (mentally / and capital wise) to reengage

    We are traders – it ain’t workin – get out

    Trade is solid – but again – manage risk first

    Trade 2.
    long on higher low 3586.25
    stop 3582
    target swing high 3597.


    Enter long…, on a lower high - why?????

    Stop is way…, way too liberal

    There is an UMTL established (green circles)

    There is a range – highlighted in yellow

    There is a false BOD – circled in red

    Btw that wick.., circled in red - also reflects strength (price didn't want to be down there so it shot up fast / buying said we got this)

    A BOU / with a retest – circled in light blue

    Then off to the races price shoots

    Price is saying it wants to go up

    You entered correctly – but for the wrong reason – and…, had the SL set way too liberally

    Target = good

    Nuff said??

    Trade 3.
    short on a lower high 3593.50
    stop 3596.75
    target swing low 3578.


    By highlighting the ranges – I suspect you see this trade completely differently now

    Short – yes

    Stop – too tight (should be breach of the range / DT)

    Target – beautiful – though when price started ranging – I would have likely exited (eta - looking at this range again - it is a range PB to the DMTL - likely I would not have exited unless price breached the DMTL - my mistake)

    Trade 4

    long at 3578.75
    stop 3571.25
    target break of up move trend line.


    SL is way the hell too liberal – make it the break of the UMTL

    Entry and target - Great

    Trade 5.
    long on lower high 3578.25
    stop 3576
    target 3586 swing low from 919.


    Again a long on a lower high – please explain this to me

    Looking to go long on higher lows – yes

    Looking to short on lower highs – yes

    I never look to go long on lower highs

    Stop – ummm to liberal

    Target - perfect

    Trade 6.
    double top short 3590.50
    stop breach of double top
    target swing low 3576. last trade


    Entry and stop – perfect

    Target – too optimistic (see the range I identify via red rectangle)… and price had been moving up

    Adjust your expectation (and target) accordingly

  535. Staying on my soap box a bit longer

    Losses are a normal part of trading - and are to be expected / exited easily

    But allowing a loss to increase more than is necessary (holding after a trade has been deemed failed - the signal invalidated..., OR..., setting it way past where a signal fails)

    Creates unnecessary work & stress - which screws up our ability to perform

    Not potentially screws it up... flat out does (I know this from experience)

    Can't count the number of times I've sat there thinking.., damn if i have only exited when the loss was still small

    Then after I finally got out - me trading to make up the loss... (which is the same as trading my PnL) - very.., very bad

    Please learn from my mistakes...

    Manage risk first
    Set the SL where the signal fails (in actuality - just past)
    Always exit once the signal fails..., & the loss still BE.., or small

    Makes trading exponentially less stressful..., I - gaaar -un - damn - tee - it

  536. RN:
    That is very kind of you to do all of this. Lots of insight exits in the above and in the below. Then our mission becomes how to learn from your sharing and how to make it our own (within). Thank you very much for your sharing.


  537. Quite astute Huyang

    You captured not only the essence…, but also the salient points

    You are Very Welcome Sir :)

  538. RN the two times I said lower high I meant to say higher low:)
  539. Gotcha :)

  540. Slugar

    As our analysis of the last chart has concluded

    I want to add this gentle reminder - be precise when drawing TLs

    Overall..., that last chart looks great - just me being my usual anal retentive self

    reference the 3 red circles - always start a TL at the end of the wick


  541. Reviewing your journal - found this gem - make sure to print it out (and post where easily seen)

  542. And another gem

    (edge & signal are synonymous - don't cha know - and just sayin :) )

  543. RN:
    Thanks for your kind words. I just summarized what you were trying to tell us. Happy Trading to All!
  544. Slugar

    Sitting here doing my prep for tomorrow and thought of you

    Aside; (just to ensure we're in sync)

    I work off the following TFs;

    Long Term TF (LTTF) – to id the overall trend

    Interim TF (ITF) – to id the current trend & zones

    Trading TF (TTF) – to trade/ read the inner workings of ITF bar(s)

    Short Term TF (STTF) to fine tune entries/ exits / read the inner workings of TTF bar(s)



    The LTTF trend is intact – as is the ITF trend – so no adjustments necessary there

    The ITF zones – marked the 2 formed Friday.., an removed an older one no longer in play (because price has gone through it.., up and down.., several times)

    Marked the H/L of the last bar on the LTTF

    Cleaned up the TTF / STTF charts (from Friday's trading)

    Made mental notes where these new zones are on all TFs

    Marked where price is currently on the STTF / TTF

    And that is about it

    Not sitting here what if-ing.., or trying to guess / second guess - what price is going to do (hell, we never know anyway)..,

    Nor am I doing any other esoteric thing

    I have the trend & levels (zones).., (aka my horizontal / vertical map)

    I’ve mentally noted where the levels (zones) are on all the TFs

    Tomorrow premkt – I’ll observe the PA

    Come 9:30 – off to the races

    No need to over think this stuff… because fact is…, we never know

    Not to mention price may change its mind 37 times between now and tomorrow…, or even 38 or 9

    Btw.., took me longer to write this than do my prep

    Always strive to K.I.S.S

    Granted - futures may be different due to the overnight session... I don't know... and please look into that.... but I bet there isn't that much of a difference (as the majority of volume occurs RTH)


    Reminder..., tomorrow – absolutely no pressure – and there never should be

    Simply..., and always - take it as it comes

  545. Important zones for monday would be near term 3581-3584 support around 3547-52 and then 23-30. And if we go up 3600
  546. Another day, another donut, Volume rules when you can such a simple indicator that tells me when not to take a trade. Often times the difference of having a profitable day is not taking 1-2 signals.
  547. Todays trades. 1. Long on a double bottom support 3550.75 stop 3548 target 3561 last swing high. 2. Higher low long at 3559.50 stop 3557.25 up move trend line target break of trend line.3.long on another higher low at 3571 stop umtl and target premarket swing high of 3584.4.last trade is a long at bottom of range 3582.75 stop 3580.50 umtl and target top of range 3592.
  548. Slugar

    Just opened up today’s chart attachment…, haven’t even looked at your trade plans yet…,

    And no matter what I say while reviewing your trade plans (good / bad / or indifferent)....

    I want you to hear this first;

    The context on today’s chart is beautiful

    The context you drew – covering the price it covers – reflects what price is saying.., in those areas - to a T

    Those are lines…, you…, and for that matter I…, can trust / can absolutely trade

    That zone – what a wonderful surprise…, it reflects what price said in that area – and it is absolutely tradable

    Job Well Done deciphering what price was saying… then drawing accurate context – both diagonally and horizontally – which reflects that

    :cool: :cool: :cool: :cool:

    Be back in a bit with your trades

  549. Todays trades.

    Trade 1.
    Long on a double bottom support 3550.75
    stop 3548
    target 3561 last swing high.


    Entry – good

    Stop – appears 3548 is the DB.., so go just a little lower than the signal – but not too much

    Target – Can’t see the last swing high (no comment)

    Trade 2.
    Higher low long at 3559.50
    stop 3557.25
    up move trend line target break of trend line.

    Entry – good

    Stop –just a little too tight – breach “appears” to be at 3557 even - make stop 3556.50 / .75

    Target – cool

    Trade 3.
    long on another higher low at 3571
    stop umtl and
    target premarket swing high of 3584.


    Entry – Good

    Stop – Breach of UMTL (I assume??) – Good

    Target – Good

    Trade 4.
    last trade is a long at bottom of range 3582.75
    stop 3580.50 umtl and
    target top of range 3592.


    Entry – is in the middle of your range – danger - see note below ... btw I think the circle is off (at an area to short??)

    Stop – should be the breach of the bottom of the range (3579 and change)

    Target – I don’t see that range – I see a range from 3580 to 3584 – wtf - target 3584


    When trading a range...,the other side of the range should be the target... and a breach of the range side your entering near - the stop


    Enter @ bottom of range, long
    Target - top of range (or near it)
    Stop - breach of range bottom

    Enter @ top of range, short
    Target - bottom of range (or near it)
    Stop - breach of top of range


    Never enter..., a range trade.., when price is near / in the middle - of the range - because you will get screwed no matter which way you enter - I know this

    Have the patience to wait till price reaches one side of the range.., or the other - makes for a proper.., low risk - set up/ signal / edge

  550. RN:Learned from you again: trade what i see but not what i think. At red arrow I was thinking of a possible range from 80 to 92 but there should not be for no similar top around 92 yet. At black arrow, could we say a possible range from 80 to 92 ? Thank you.
  551. Thanks for the kind words RN looking to be more disciplined in my lines and my discription of my trades, combine this with confidence to follow my plan to a t and we will be on to something here

  552. Ranges are just that – areas where price ranges (consolidates)

    3584 to 3580 – price is ranging on this chart (TF) (and which Sluggar correctly identified)

    Likely 3580 to 3592 is also a range – or at least “potentially” the beginning of a range – on a larger TF


    Thing is…. this is Slugar’s TTF – so he needs to stick with it / trade on it

    What you’re picking up on… is how smaller TFs – build bigger TFs (albeit bars or charts)…

    And you’re seeing how one can use a smaller TF to see/ pick up on – the inner workings of larger TFs


    On this chart - what you noted (3580 to 3592) 3580 - 3584 is a range / 3584 to 3592 is trade-able moves

    On Slugar's TTF

    On a bigger TF chart - yup - 3580 to 3592 - is likely is a range forming


    Very easy to confuse MTFs (a lower TF blending into / creating a higher TF) – if one doesn’t keep their head clear

    And why it is important to pick a TTF and stick to it come hell or highwater... but... and while - also knowing the bigger picture forming

  553. Both are vitally important

    (1) Doing so accurately - accurately describes price's actions (and we are PA traders - no)

    (2) Doing so accurately - accurately describes our actions - in relation to - price's actions

    Details & accuracy matter in this business

  554. Trades for Tuesday. short on a double top at 3589.50 stop 3592 target 3580 bottom yesterdays range.2.short on a lower high 87.25 stop 91 and target last swing low 3579.3.long on a higher low at 83 stop 80 target last swing high 91.4. short at resistance 3590 stop 93.25 target range at 80. 5.short on lower high 3479 stop 3481.75 target dmtl break. 6. long at support 3553.75 stop 3551.75 blow signal bar target 60 last swing high. 7. short on a lower high 3558 target last swing 51 stop 61 or breach of dmtl
  555. Honestly - half way through reviewing your trade plans - I was getting pissed - read on to find out why please

    General comments

    Appears the range from 3580 – 3592 (yesterday's range) was in play this morning - go figure :)

    TLs – look good (I did add another (in red) as something to be aware of


    One from 3580 – 2592 – you noted..., Also never be hesitant to extend a range out (horizontally across the chart) – it came back into play mid to late morning

    One from 3564 - ~3552 – miss it??

    The one noted ~3552 – 3551 – Personally I would not call that a range – rather a PB (a piss poor one at that) – that’s exhibiting weakness (see what I highlighted)

    Trades for Tuesday.

    Trade 1
    short on a double top at 3589.50
    stop 3592
    target 3580 bottom yesterdays range.


    Entry; Good

    Stop; Make it a breach – not just arriving at the top

    Target; good

    However price never hit the target – instead it moved down…, then started back up – so what did you do…, how did you manage this one

    Having target is fine…, as long as price plays along – when it doesn’t (and many times it won’t)…, we still need (a way) to manage each trade

    Same as having a plan “A” and a plan “B”

    Trade 1 ½

    What the hell happened to the long near the bottom of the range?????? - You have it marked but no trade plan

    Trade 2.
    short on a lower high 87.25
    stop 91 and
    target last swing low 3579.


    This trade is not marked????

    Entry; 3587.25 (I assume) – okay (damn I hate guessing trade plans)

    Stop; This stop is incorrect – it should be breach of DMTL… or breach of the top of the range (if you’re feeling generous with your capital)


    Trade 3.
    long on a higher low at 83
    stop 80
    target last swing high 91.


    Near as I can tell – this trade is not marked

    Entry; 3583 ??? (why the partial price)

    Stop; 3580??? (again why the partial price)


    Again – you appear to be ignoring that big fat range.., price is in (for the entry / stop/ and target)

    Trade 4.
    short at resistance 3590
    stop 93.25
    target range at 80.


    This trade ain’t marked – no comment because I ain’t guessing




    Trade 5.
    short on lower high 3479
    stop 3481.75
    target dmtl break.

    Entry; Good

    Stop; Good

    Target; Good

    Trade 6.
    long at support 3553.75
    stop 3551.75 blow signal bar
    target 60 last swing high.

    Entry; Good

    Stop; Good

    Target; Good

    Trade 7.
    short on a lower high 3558
    stop 61 or breach of dmtl
    target last swing 51

    Entry; Good

    Stop; Good

    Target; Good

    I'm not insinuating you are - but please don't get lackadaisical on me - this stuff matters greatly


  556. If you haven’t figured it out yet – building a trader…. and/ or building an approach/ methodology

    Is one big ass - extensive…, and ceaseless exercise in layering

    No matter the trader – or the approach / methodology

    First we remove the useless.., even detrimental layers

    Then we begin adding layer – upon layer - to build a trader…, and/or to build our approach / methodology

    There are countless layers we could add – some enhance the existing layers – while adding others would only serve to detract... or even negate - the layers we already have

    Individual layers – are not complicated – and most..., easily understood

    Yet when melded together – can become complicated… can be hell to understand… let alone – assimilated in such a manner..., that we can successfully and effortlessly utilize them together to trade

    Context – proper context – context that accurately reflects price – is price’s voice speaking to us

    Context – is the very foundation upon which we…, as PA traders…, build our entire methodology / approach

    Build our trades

    Manage our trades

    Get paid

    Or lose money

    It is the very foundation upon which we build the trust – in price…, and in our trading

    It is the very foundation upon which we build our resolute to act unwavering-ly and repeatedly …, and/ or the patience to stand pat as long as is necessary

    We build each trade’s plan on the context foundation we create

    Our plan must be thorough – it must be what we do – no matter how much hell (volatility) is going on in front of us

    And I could go on…, and on..., and on... but to suffice to say

    Proper context..., and a complete plan for each trade - is so damn important - it ain't even the least little bit funny

  557. The zone I marked wasn't for a range it was the support area I marked in my prep work on Sunday.
  558. This won't make sense to anyone other that Slugar

    Slugar - I Sincerely Apologize to You Sir

  559. That zone also worked well for a range - agree??

    Point being - be always adaptable - to price

  560. Following this thread RN and Slugar. Good stuff.
  561. Thanks I'm learning a lot and trying to be patient with myself
  562. No way you would know and I appreciate you being adamant about how we do this
  563. Thank You Sir :)


  564. And I'm willing to stick here.., for as long as it takes..., and till it becomes second nature

    Everything & anything else you plan to do / will ever accomplish - trading PA - is predicated on it (building proper context (which accurately reflects price) - then creating trading plans based on that context)


  565. I remember the handful of years it took me to get to being a breakeven trader, the entries were more fun and I concentrated always on getting it the best, but they were wasted five years cause I concentrated on the getting in, what a fool I was back then. The money of the trading plan is where to get out and what is happening on each bar, and I was writing down in my journal what each bar meant.

    I would often have one line why I got in and half page of what happened DURING the trade. What are you seeing? Try this, which I often did myself, I want YOU to teach ME how to trade, show me the whys of you getting in, but teach me what you see till trade is complete.

    To me trading is about failing, finding out where other traders are failing and feeding them their contracts, where are they throwing up their hands and getting out cause that where I want to get in earniest. About the only time I do breakouts are on reversal type signals, look at it like a rubberband, stretch that puppy way out and I want to get in for the snap back, they usually offer smallest risk and if risk too great, wait for breakout and place entry limit where risk is less, has to fill in couple bars. Trend trades for me always meant that breakouts offered greatest risk and smallest profit cause price has to prove itself so much to show trend, so that why I prefer to wait for retracements against the trend to get in, often times risking 5-6 points in Nasdaq but seldom get stopped out. "Time", I don't have much patience, want the trade to show me it going my way after so many bars, otherwise am lookng to get out.

    And failing is not a bad thing like so many think, they are opportunities to do again and do it right. Might take a few times of doing wrong, but I see it as one less way not to do it that way again. Failures to me are truely opportunities.
  566. Many put little emphasis on entries (not sayin you H123)

    To me.., entries are the very basis necessary for low risk trades

    Exits (stop loss variety) ..., have to be where the set up (signal) fails – or.., if your skill is sufficient – once sediment changes… but price hasn’t yet retraced sufficiently to fail the signal

    Then of course managing the trade – that is a whole arena unto itself

    Many layers to this craft… many…, many


  567. Slugar

    I want you to burn this into your brain - beyond any... shadow of a doubt

    And make no mistake about how important it is

    Losing well..., is the best trading skill I possess - period (and it took me losing a hellofalot of money to figure this out - not to mention the emotional bullshit I put myself through )

  568. trades 1. db long 3555.25 s 3552.25 target sh of premarket 3565.2.dy short 3558.50 s 3561.25 target sl 3548.25. 3.lw short 3444.50 s 3448.50 target sl of 3541.4. hl long 3528 stop breach of umtl target 3547 last swing high. 5. lh short 3512 s3515.25 target breach of umtl.6. 6. long higher low 3507.75 stop 3503.5 target 3516 swing high.7. highr low long 3512 stop 3509 target swing or breach of umtl. 8. dt short 3517 s 350.25 target 3507 congestion area. 9. bottom of range long 3507.25 target top of range or breach of umtl stop 3502.75 10. double top short 3527 s 3530 target top of congestion are 3510. last trade db long 3509 stop 3506 target swing high of 3524. all in all the best day I've had on a demo
  569. Just reviewing your trades…, allow me to post the form a trade plan should take

    Trade plan (created for each trade)

    1.) Signal / Entry
    2.) Initial Stop loss signal / Stop loss price
    3.) Target / Method of managing trade

    I’ll reserve any further comment and simply ask you to be the judge…,

    Does each trade’s plan below…, follow the above format – in order…, and/or in detail (rhetorical of course)

    Trading is..., one big repetitious…, and exacting – routine

    Back in a bit



    Trade 1.
    db long 3555.25
    s 3552.25
    target sh of premarket 3565.

    Trade 2.
    dy short 3558.50
    s 3561.25 target
    sl 3548.25.

    trade 3.
    lw short 3444.50
    s 3448.50 target
    sl of 3541.

    Trade 4.
    hl long 3528
    stop breach of umtl
    target 3547 last swing high.

    Trade 5.
    lh short 3512
    target breach of umtl.

    Trade 6. 6.
    long higher low 3507.75
    stop 3503.5
    target 3516 swing high.

    Trade 7.
    highr low long 3512
    stop 3509
    target swing or breach of umtl.

    Trade 8.
    dt short 3517
    s 350.25
    target 3507 congestion area.

    Trade 9.
    bottom of range long 3507.25
    target top of range or breach of umtl
    stop 3502.75

    Trade 10.
    double top short 3527
    s 3530
    target top of congestion are 3510.

    Trade last trade
    db long 3509
    stop 3506
    target swing high of 3524.

    If the trader not consistent - neither will the trader's results be - fact

  570. trades

    Trade 1.
    db long 3555.25
    s 3552.25
    target sh of premarket 3565.


    Entry – Sucks – you entered @ the top of those bars – with the tails on top

    Stop – breach of bottom of bars - good

    Target – sucks (why – because why should price want to go there – I’ve no clue)

    I’ll skip the formalities.

    What does the dashed green line note between trade 1 and trade 2??

    Aside from being risky as hell – I can’t see a reason to enter long here – weakness preceding the entry…,

    Price never reaches your target… and I’ve no clue how you managed this trade – so I'll assume it a stop out for a loss @ 3552.25

    Here is how I see this (your) trade (not how I would have or have not traded it) – enter long at the top of a bar – get stopped out for a loss at the bottom of the same bar / aka.., Entered long – when price had not even cleared the previous weakness

    Trade 2.
    dy short 3558.50
    s 3561.25
    target sl 3548.25.


    Entry – What the hell is a dy signal (I could guess – but I won’t) (entry good)

    Stop – is too generous – breach of DT

    Target – Makes sense – but what the hell is sl – swing low…, or stop loss – again me with the guessing

    Now you could say well dumbass – it follows the order of entry / stop/ target – so the sl must be swing low – at which point I would direct your attention to trade 9 please

    trade 3.
    lw short 3444.50
    s 3448.50 target
    sl of 3541.


    Entry – What is a lw signal – and your entry price… is off the fuckin chart – literally (3444.50????????????)

    Stop – I suppose if your entry off the chart – so too should you stop – wtf

    Target – you shorted @ 3444.5 – and your profit target is 3541 – mmm-kay… or is that sl for stop loss – inquiring minds and that sort

    Trade 4.
    hl long 3528
    stop breach of umtl
    target 3547 last swing high.


    Entry – Solid

    Stop – Solid

    Target - Solid

    Though I gotta admit shorting 3444.50 is still boggling my mind

    Trade 5.
    lh short 3512
    target breach of umtl.


    Entry – Solid

    Stop – Solid

    Target – sure that is not a breach of the DMTL – it is a short

    Trade 6. 6.
    long higher low 3507.75
    stop 3503.5
    target 3516 swing high.


    Entry – Solid

    Stop – Solid

    Target – way too damn optimistic – been weakness all day – should have been 3510 at best

    Trade 7.
    highr low long 3512
    stop 3509
    target swing or breach of umtl.


    Entry – Going long into resistance – too risky of a trade – should have waited till price BO – or not

    Yes you did denote a range…, yes price was out of your range – but weakness all morning long.., and price facing resistance just out of your range

    Stop – Why not draw a UMTL and make a breach of it the stop

    Target – what f’n UMTL – either I’m blind or its missing – so I’ll draw one… as for price hitting the swing – what f’n swing

    God I need glasses - I can't see any of this

    Trade 8.
    dt short 3517
    s 350.25
    target 3507 congestion area.


    Entry – Solid

    Stop – You’re kidding – right - please tell me you're f'n kidding

    Target – that whole f’n area I have in yellow is congestion – where we talkin - just pick any congestion ???- fine 3444.50 is as good as any

    Trade 9.
    bottom of range long 3507.25
    target top of range or breach of umtl
    stop 3502.75


    Entry – no patience for a retest – so we enter long soon as our pecker feels the slightest breeze of an up move???

    Stop – oh wait this is the target – top of range – good / breach of UMTL – which one – you drew 2… and I see one not drawn (allow me )

    Target – oh wait shit... now - it’s the stop – Good

    Trade 10.
    double top short 3527
    s 3530
    target top of congestion are 3510.


    Entry – good if you mean the red line I drew – otherwise I do not see a DT

    Stop – good

    Target – again with the congestion area – be specific – that whole area is a congestion cluster fuck by now

    Trade last trade (Thank God)
    db long 3509
    stop 3506
    target swing high of 3524.


    Entry – I do not see a DB – I see a HL – which you used to draw an UMTL

    Stop – Why @ 3506?????

    Target – you’ve got to be shittin (with all the congestion) – make it a breach of the UMTL and be done with it


    Maybe it was your best day… and maybe I am pissin on your parade… but

    Doing something once – its called luck

    Doing something repeatedly – that is a skill

    And you are seeking a skill

    Need to tighten things up - considerably Slugar

  571. Hi.
    Redneck. Do you only trade FB each day and nothing else? Don't think i've heard of someone concentrating on only one stock before.
    If so, can you explain why, as opossed to trading something like the NQ or ES etc?

    Depending on how my account looks in a few months after a period of attempting daytrading equities, I might give it a go.


  572. I trade stocks – as opposed to futures / options / commodities / bonds . etc. – because.., I am a stock trader

    Day trading – I have a short list of stocks – of which I only trade 1 at a time – and until it dies up – then I'll move to another

    Yes, I focus on only 1 instrument at a time – long as it moving enough.., and has the liquidity - what do I care


    Funny you mention this though – why does no one ever question only trading ES.., or NQ... or CL..., e Mini's.., or Bonds


    Trade Well

  573. Long Ago I day traded IBM for five years, only stock I would touch until the exchanges went from fraction of dollar to cents, I'd still be trading it today had the change never occurred. It was easier to get all my shares at same price by giving up a little, but now people fight for less than a penny. I think each instrument has it's own personality and by learning what it does during the day, better for me. ES certainly trades much different than Nasdaq.
  574. Absolutely agree

  575. Probably margin requirements.

    Gotta have a fair sized account to daytrade stocks, while you only need a few grand to trade futures.
  576. Yeah that PDT rule/ margin requirement - another needless regulation imo

    Good to see Ya DD


    btw, anyone wondering - Slugar is traveling today - don't think he'll be back online till tomorrow

  577. I saw early on today by huge bars on two minute, it wasn't going to be bar of choice, I dropped down to one minute and started to trade exactly as I always done. Same rules, stops, patterns, nothing ever changes if you trade long enough.

    When I am confused, I stop trading unless I can use Price Patterns to show me another reason to get in. If Volume not making sense, got to have congestion of support or resistance and then get in cheap(near S/R) and risk next to nothing. I lack patience in Price patterns, it either has to take off in my direction pretty quick or I am taking a tick of profit. I am watching the DOME to see which direction the price wants to go by looking at nearest volume on ask/bid, the one that gets down to zero first will either go up/down to next level. This isn't Rocket Science, but people think it got to be a lot harder than it is, too many years of society yelling you have to have good grades to get ahead, really who cares what grade you got for History4 in college to make some money looking at little lines on a screen. Am at Starbucks trading on 17 inch screen, hooked into PC at home, brought my Organic Half & half for coffee, life can't be much easier than this. My old man would be so angry at me cause I wasn't really working at a job that meant something like building houses. We all have our demons.
  578. RN, What's wrong with the structure stop ? I believe it's a tick above the DT. You would use a TL break as a stop or ?


  579. qoute Thanks, Ammo. looking forward to the maybes becoming clearer./........

    Join Date: Aug 2007
    Location: Texas
    Posts: 1,258

    I saw early on today by huge bars on two minute, it wasn't going to be bar of choice, I dropped down to one minute and started to trade exactly as I always done. Same rules, stops, patterns, nothing ever changes if you trade long enough.

    When I am confused, I stop trading unless I can use Price Patterns to show me another reason to get in. If Volume not making sense, got to have congestion of support or resistance and then get in cheap(near S/R) and risk next to nothing. I lack patience in Price patterns, it either has to take off in my direction pretty quick or I am taking a tick of profit. I am watching the DOME to see which direction the price wants to go by looking at nearest volume on ask/bid, the one that gets down to zero first will either go up/down to next level. This isn't Rocket Science, but people think it got to be a lot harder than it is, too many years of society yelling you have to have good grades to get ahead, really who cares what grade you got for History4 in college to make some money looking at little lines on a screen. Am at Starbucks trading on 17 inch screen, hooked into PC at home, brought my Organic Half & half for coffee, life can't be much easier than this. My old man would be so angry at me cause I wasn't really working at a job that meant something like building houses. We all have our demons."

    20 plus years ,doesnt trade the maybes

    ,disipline//every trade is a bet,high percentages only
  580. Was traveling for 7 hours today so only marked 4 trades. Per a request I am marking my stop loss with a red dashed line and my target with a green dashed line.Also all of the trades are numbered. 1.Double bottom long 3521.50 stop 3518.25 target last swing high of 3533. trade 2 long at 3546.75 double bottom. stop 3544.25 target last swing high 3555.25 or breach of up move trend line.3.lower high short at 3576.50 stop 3579 and target of last swing low of 3560. 4.lower high short at 3547.50 stop of 3550 and target of 3532 from a swing high at 8:31 cst.
  581. This is how you make money in markets, high percentage trades. Don't hurt yourself.

    I use the fill out by hand several journals I had going during my learning years, most of my learning was with graph paper and pencil even after home computers came out, I am really a dinosaur when it comes to technology. I was told long ago if I found people that were good at it, pay them well so they don't leave. In my journals I would record everything and anything I thought or saw that might be important. One journal became my "extra" trades, you know the ones, where you put on cause you can "feel" the market going to do something? After a few thousand of these trades recorded, I added them up and 95% were losers, hmmmmm, that number really did it for me on taking these extra trades, it told me I was horrible at doing non-system trades. It told me that inexperienced traders takes these trades and I could do the opposite if I had a signal and most likely be better than 50/50 at making a profit. It also told me to add more contracts when I get these extra trades going to other way with a good signal.

    Does anyone record these amounts?
  582. slugar: If possible, please help to describe your thought process for the following (details are in the attached chart. ):
    (1) what make you not look for higher low long entry as shown in green arrow?
    (2) What make you not to short earlier at red arrow ?
    Thank you.
  583. Handle123: may you please check whether notes on the chart is what you shared on weak hands signal? Thanks a lot.

  584. Eyeballing it.., the HOD / DT appears to be @ 3560.25 (admittedly I could be wrong about that – but that is where I think / thought the HOD / DT was)

    That said – set stop @ 3560.50..., and reduce risk by 3/4 of a point – as ;

    This is one of those trade’s that either works…, or doesn't – and when it doesn't - no need losing any more than necessary


    Could one use a break of the DMTL

    This early in the morning… knowing volatility is present – probably not the best choice

    But – I could be wrong here – this is where knowing the personality of what you’re trading comes into play


    No question.., I am anal about using small SL’s (and anal is a gross understatement)

    But there is also a point where you start choking trades…, by setting the SL too tight…

    Then you‘re simply pissin money away.., getting needlessly stopped out – by price’s normal gyrations (normal for the time day / part of the session)

    This particular trade – imo – falls into this category

    Make sense?

  585. My initial thoughts

    The start of the TL.., for trade 2 - little sloppy

    Overall.., the TLs - are very clean

    Yesterday - you had 10 trades - and were all over the radar

    Today - 4 trades and captured a large portion of what the mkt offered - real nice job!!!!

    Back in a few

  586. eta

    Notice how the yellow highlighted zones came into play early... then later in the day

    zones = S&R areas = reference areas

    sometime they can be large (wide) - other times not so


    Trade 1.
    Double bottom long 3521.50
    stop 3518.25
    target last swing high of 3533.


    I like how you drew the 2 TLs

    Entry – Solid

    Stop – Solid

    Target – Can’t see the last SH – but I believe you – Solid

    Trade 2
    long at 3546.75 double bottom.
    stop 3544.25
    target last swing high 3555.25 or breach of up move trend line.


    Beginning of TL sloppy – see note

    NOTE; if you try and make a clean TL… but can’t – that is price speaking to you - that its not clear on what it wants to do – just yet

    Entry – Solid

    Stop – Solid

    Target – Solid (see note)


    We talked about fanning a TL – and how that reflects momentum is waning

    Same.., but the opposite - is true when price climbs steeper…, and away from – the existing TL – momentum is increasing

    So.., for this trade – a target of the last SH is solid… but.., as price was heading to that SH – it was also gaining momentum (Newton’s law a body in motion) so it would be reasonable to expect price to exceed the SH

    IMPORTANT NOTE – I just shared another layer…. But I want to ease into these layers real slow – to give you a change to get comfortable.., to assimilate… so for now – just note momentum was building into the SH

    Trade 3.
    lower high short at 3576.50
    stop 3579
    and target of last swing low of 3560.


    Entry – Solid

    Stop – eyeballing it – top appears to be 3580.. but I ain’t complaining - Solid

    Target – Solid – again it had momentum..,. and it was respecting the DMTL
    (just observations to note at this point)

    Trade 4.
    lower high short at 3547.50
    stop of 3550
    and target of 3532 from a swing high at 8:31 cst.


    Entry – appears the circle is 1 bar above the entry bar (see my red circle) - Solid

    Stop – Solid

    Target – Solid



    I’ve been riding you hard these last few days – I get no enjoyment from that whatsoever

    Days you do work like this – makes my heart feel good

    Thank You


    Please keep this up – the attention to detail… the clarity – both will serve you well trading

  587. When I mention "Weak hands", these signals have to do with an extended move and confirmed by what I seek regarding volume. Heavier volume near lows and lighter volume near highs based on very short timeframe charts. It is not the same as much in larger timeframes. But I am a scalper when I trade on timeframes under 60 minutes, in/out give me hundred bucks, not all the time mind you but enough to keep it fun. And there are times I make more than hundred but those happen on averaging down fills.
  588. Handle123: Thanks a lot for your kind sharing.
  589. i just marked the best trades i saw, as far as the long goes if i were to take a long there which i wouldn't in most cases because of the strong move down i would have after the small double bottom because i would draw a steeper down move trend line which would have been broken. the short would have been fine and on both trades you would have been stopped out for a small loss or broke even
  590. H123

    Here's thinking of you Sir :)

  591. Thank you Thank you.

    What if you did this?

  592. money

  593. May as well include a BO

  594. Why MTFs are useful

  595. It wants to go up - we'll see

    Not a prediction - just readin and rollin

  596. When I day traded IBM for years, I would wait for close beyond trendline providing the close was above previous bars' high, and get in on the trendline retracement bounce, and if no retracement, first lower high, I'd buy 2 cent BO.

    I found too often there are BO on trendlines but caused by drift, price just going sideways, but by putting in rule that close has to be beyond previous bars extreme made huge difference. There was one year, I only took sells, had the uptick rule and of the five years I day traded IBM, that was my best year. Just too boring for me to watch all day long, do the morning and maybe the afternoon, this old man needs naps now. ROFL.
  597. now it's tryin to show how stupid I am

  598. TL PB ???

    We'll see

  599. Now we have a NOD special (triangle):D

  600. Now back 4 or 5 posts - when i said it looks like it wanted to go up..., and had I stuck to my thinking

    I would be hatin life right now

    Trade what you see / not what you think

    (and full disclosure - i have not traded any of this - I simply can't focus on 2 things at once)

    Volume coming in btw

    We'll see

  601. having the patience to sit and observe is very important is this business

    btw, I readjusted the green and yellow TLs.. and extended the blue lines (current range) - on the 5 min

    eta - the green line on the 5 min now closer matches the UMTL on the 15 (and Slugar this is why paying attention to details ... and being precise - matter greatly)

  602. Ever hear a trader say - made money in the morning.., lost it in the afternoon

    Must be adaptable to the PA environment

    Ain't a one of us able to force price to do anything

    btw - as I was writing this.., price BO to the down side hard

  603. Vol came in - likely it the stops / dumps / and eager (impatient) short entries - we'll see if it has follow through

    Volume must be read in context (this takes a while to learn)

  604. Seldom pays to enter eagerly

    red box is the pain felt by being one of the eager shorts


    eta - stick a fork in me... done for now
  605. When I last posted;

    Price was demonstrating how stupid I am

    How having / holding an opinion is not wise

    How the eager get punished

    How even though price was signaling it wanted to do one thing – it did the exact opposite


    So where did price end the day – believe it or not – right back in that range where I said it was acting like it wanted to go up – go figure

    Wonder how many – long / shorts got screwed today

    Wonder how many left feeling like they are a competent trader – simply because price came back and saved their ass

    My whole series of posts today

    Was not about being right or wrong

    Nor was it about forming an opinion and trading it – which is another quirk with this business

    One must act…, decidedly and decisively – without ever forming an opinion on the matter – without ever taking it personally – and without regard to what happens next

    Over and over – till retirement

    My posts were about trading & about being a trader

    Trade what you see

    Roll with price

    Screw your opinion

    Have patience – as much patience as it takes

    Don’t rush to enter

    Sitting through pain – greatly expends one’s mental capital – not the mention the monetary if price does not come back

    That one can ultimately be right – yet still be wrong & broke (timing is important)

    And though I did not explicitly say it - when wrong – get out while the loss still small


    Which.., speaking of losses … as I’m sitting here thinking…. and though I’ve taken thousands – if not tens of thousands of small losses – I can’t recall a single one….

    Not one

    Yet of the losers…, I allowed to grow and piss away my capital – destroy my account – screw with my head – more than once (because I am obviously too stupid to learn the first time)

    I can recall each one vividly – like each happened yesterday

    Such is the business we’re in - best get your head screwed on straight and be mentally prepared every day

  606. Again... not a call

    We'll simply see what Monday brings

    Price does not like being in the 56.48 vicinity - which is not to say it won't return... even bust down and through it

    But so far - it hasn't like it

  607. 1st trade higher low long at 3518.75 stop 3515.25 target swing high of 3532.2.higher low long at 3527 stop breach of up move trend line approx. 3524.50 target 3532 last swing high. 3.lower high 3737.75 stop 3541.25 target breach of down move trend line.4.lower high short3525.25 stop 3528.75 target swing low of 3510. 5. higher low long at 3522 stop below signal bar at 3518.75 target last swing high of 3528.50.6. last trade lower high short at 3543.75 stop 3547 target last swing low at 3528.
  608. back in a few

  609. General comments;

    Context looks good

    Couple of trade too risky given the PA/ environment

    Wondering about the 2 PBs you had to hold through on trade 1

    Blue rectangle (referenced in trades 4, 5, 6) – is congestion – best to stay clear of this area (sit on hands when price is in it.., or near it)

    Overall – Good Job

    Trade 1
    higher low long at 3518.75
    stop 3515.25
    target swing high of 3532.


    Can’t see all the trade (what occurred prior to the entry – nor the swing high target – nevertheless)

    Entry – Solid

    Stop – Very Nice

    Target – holding to the target took some guts – through the PBs that breached your 1st TL – but not your 2nd TL – any thoughts on that?? (see my red circles)

    Trade 2.
    higher low long at 3527
    stop breach of up move trend line approx. 3524.50
    target 3532 last swing high.


    I like your TLs

    Notice the tails prior to your entry = buying (supports your thesis of going long)

    Entry – Very Nice

    Stop – Very Nice

    Target – Very Nice… also notice the momentum heading into your target

    Trade 3.
    lower high 3737.75
    stop 3541.25
    target breach of down move trend line.


    I don’t like this entry…, price had been moving up (buying / aka strength) – and you’re shorting essentially at the bottom of – a zone/ range/ support (highlighted in yellow)

    Better if you had allowed price to BOD (if it was going to) then entered short on the next LH or even wait for a PB

    Entry – Check your entry price (3537.75???) – trade Risky

    Stop – Very Nice

    Target – A breach of which DMTL (you’ve drawn 2)

    Trade 4.
    lower high short 3525.25
    stop 3528.75
    target swing low of 3510.


    This is a risky entry;

    Who’s to say this was not a reversal – price was moving up – then moving down – and now price is in the congestion formed early in the morning (blue rectangle)

    Recall when in a range – and tails on top/ tails on bottom – both sides fighting for control

    Better to wait till price clears (BO) one side or the other

    Entry – Risky

    Stop – Solid

    Target – Way too optimistic based on the session’s previous PA

    Trade 5.
    higher low long at 3522
    stop below signal bar at 3518.75
    target last swing high of 3528.50.6.


    Another risky trade

    Price just coming off making a new LOD

    It’s forming a small range at the bottom of the congestion (blue box) / and at essentially the bottom of the previous swing low

    Entry – It worked…, is all I can say

    Stop – Good

    Target – Fair enough

    Last trade
    lower high short at 3543.75
    stop 3547
    target last swing low at 3528.


    Entry – Good

    Stop – Too generous (shorting after strength)

    Target – Too optimistic given price cleared the congestion (blue box) & price pierced your 2nd DMTL (green circle) & and price had been moving up with momentum


  610. Just wanted to wish a Happy Mother's Day to all of the moms out there!
  611. My focus this week will be to concentrate on only the best trades and sit on my hands when the market tells me to be patient.
  612. Sweet


    The zones you've identified - keep em and let's see how/ if price plays to them tomorrow

    price - the ultimate arbitrator

  613. How about I do the same as you - post what I'm staring at w/ some context

    Then we can see how/ if price plays to any of it tomorrow (I’ll post a EOD snippet)

    Btw – see where price retraced & tested the pink DMTL (signal courtesy of H123 :) )

    Trade Patiently & Selectively Tomorrow - win.., lose.., or draw Sir

  614. Fb eod

  615. Today was a very strong up trend from the open. I only marked 4 trades today all longs. 1.long on a higher low at 3678 stop 3674.25 target breach of up move trend line. 2. 3588 another higher low stop at 3585.25 and target breach of up move trend line. 3. long on a double bottom 3591 stop 3588.75 target breach of up move demand line. last trade test of top of range at3603 stop 3600.25 target I set at 8 points the same distance most of the other trades moved before breaking the trend line. Days like today make me wonder if my system needs to be tweaked to catch more of the up move.
  616. Overall comments

    Good job seeing / accepting it as an up day and going with it – be surprised how many fight themselves during these types of days and keep attempting to short

    Makes for a very frustrating day

    Love the zone you identified

    TLs – Good job


    Trade 1
    long on a higher low at 3678
    stop 3674.25
    target breach of up move trend line.


    I don’t believe your entry & stop prices

    Entry –
    Stop –
    Target – Good

    Trade 2.
    3588 another higher low
    stop at 3585.25 and
    target breach of up move trend line.


    Entry – Good
    Stop – Good
    Target – Good

    Trade 3
    long on a double bottom 3591
    stop 3588.75
    target breach of up move demand line.


    Entry – Good
    Stop – Good
    Target – Good

    last trade
    test of top of range at 3603
    stop 3600.25
    target I set at 8 points the same distance most of the other trades moved before breaking the trend line.


    Entry – Good
    Stop – Good
    Target – I do not like the way you set this target – by using hindsight bias – please don’t do that going forward (every moment..., and trade..., and outcome - are unique)

    Good Job


    Didn't attach a chart today - because yours is quite good

  617. I'll assume you're thinking out loud here... and will reserve comment unless you ask for it...

    Or/ And... I can also be a sounding board if you like

  618. Just thinking out loud I know every trade is unique! Sometimes I wonder if my lines are hugging price too tightly!
  619. How often is/ does price falsely breach them

  620. I will start keeping track of this to determine if it actually makes that much difference.
  621. Being over simplistic.., but accurate

    When trading price - price determines everything..., we base everything on price

    Including line placement / whether we're correct with our line placement


  622. Slugar

    I was sure you were going to take me to task on this one Sir....

    Isn't the method you described in setting your target - also considered a measured move???

    And using a measured move is pretty standard / well known practice

    So why did I reject that approach... Hmmmm

    Never just take my say so on stuff - pick it apart - please

  623. I was actually going to bring up the measured move but didn't . any ways todays trades.1.double bottom long at 3607.50 stop 3604 target last awing high of 3619..2. double bottom long at 3611.25 stop 3607 target last swing high of 3622.3. higher low long at 3618.50 stop of 3615.50 target 3622. 4. lower high short at 3621 stop at 3623 target last swing low of 3615. over all a very choppy day and a good day to sit on your hands.

  624. Trading is a balance – between a strong offense… and a strong defense

    Trend days we can be more offensive

    Range / chop days we must be more defensive

    Focus on one..., at the peril of the other

    We must diligently maintain both - and be prepared to bring to bear - the one PA dictates - when PA dictates


    I agree – choppy PA today



    Mkt is funny this way - ask a question - it will answer.... we need only be receptive to what it is saying

    Back in a bit

  625. General comments

    See the green UMTLs (3 in all) - just something to note

    The UMTL I crossed out (in red); What is that one based on (iow why draw it)?

    I highlighted 3 zones..., the upper and lower are straight forward..., the middle one is harder to see (visualize)

    double bottom long at 3607.50
    stop 3604
    target last awing high of 3619..


    Entry – Can’t see the DB – Entry Good

    Stop – Good

    Target – Beautiful – but what about that decent size PB – how did you manage through that???

    Trade 2.
    double bottom long at 3611.25
    stop 3607
    target last swing high of 3622.3.


    Entry – and a TB(circled in pink) – Good

    Stop – Good

    Target – Good – but what about the hesitation around 3618.00 – how did you manage through that – it did break the UMTL

    Trade 3 ??
    higher low long at 3618.50
    stop of 3615.50
    target 3622.


    Solid trade

    Entry – Good

    Stop – Good

    Target – Good

    Trade 4.
    lower high short at 3621
    stop at 3623
    target last swing low of 3615.


    Another solid trade

    Entry – Good

    Stop – Good

    Target – Good


    Good job in a rather challenging environment today (way to play "D")

  626. If the umtl is broken my method says I must sell.that was what I was talking about when I said it may need to be tweaked
  627. And days like today are going to tax it to death....

    This is going to take some analysis to get a suitable solution....

    Just throwing it out there - allow 1 fan - as long as price resumes before exceeding the last SH / SL?? - then a breach of that the exit - for choppy days

    If you consider this - first determine if it is even feasible

  628. I am planning on running test to see the results from both ways of exiting
  629. Another option would be taking 1 contract off on the break and using the lsh or swing low for the 2nd
  630. Yup - more than one way to skin this ole cat - huh :p

    No right way... or wrong way - only your way (as it is for every trader)

  631. so today in my quest to be more disciplined I only took 3 trades, I was break even after 2 trades and each time the nq would reach 3610-13 I saw resistance and more volume so the last trade I decided to let it run until it tested another volume area at 3598 and thought if it could get below 3598 it would test 93. my 1st trade was a short on a lower high at 3609.50 stop at 3612.75 and target of last swing low of 3598. 2. long on a higher low at 3600.75 stop 3598.350 and target of 3608.25 the last swing high. last trade was a short on a lower high at 3605.75 stop 3609 target 3600.
  632. Readin and Rollin..., Tradin PA

    Very Sweet :)

    Back in a bit

  633. General Comments

    TLs look good


    1st trade
    short on a lower high at 3609.50
    stop at 3612.75
    target of last swing low of 3598.


    Entry – Good

    Stop – Little generous

    Target – Once price went sideways @ ~3700 – then dropped to 3603… then back up to ~3700 (in the first half of the chop range I marked in pink) I would have exited
    PA was showing strength – which then did peter out quickly (but we didn’t know it would until later) (see strength comment on chart)

    Trade 2.
    long on a higher low at 3600.75
    stop 3598.350
    target of 3608.25 the last swing high.


    Risky trade – going long into chop.., and weakness (see weakness comments on chart)

    Entry – It worked

    Stop – Good

    Target – Too optimistic given the chop

    Last trade
    short on a lower high at 3605.75
    stop 3609
    target 3600.


    Entry – Good (though I’d be leery of the chop range)

    Stop - Good

    Target – Excellent (notice – price PB to the small zone (I highlighted) – but no further
    Potential DT short w/ a very tight stop – and price had been going down

    Or like you did – let it run :)

    Overall - Good Job Sir



    From the outside - trading PA looks easy.... when you actually are - must keep an eye on / be watching - every thing :eek: :p

    It will get easier with time

  634. How these entries?

  635. Not sure if you’re posing this to Slugar… me.., or both

    In short;

    I see the set up you’ve shared in all entries (though some are markedly cleaner than others)


    The longs do not make sense to me – given the PA preceding them.., and unclear signal of each

    The shorts do make sense - although the signals on the 2nd / 3rd short are not real clean - the preceding PA does support them

    I also think you're more of a scalper – where (and we’ve never really discussed it) – Slugar is targeting the meat of moves (swings)


  636. I'm a day trader and will take what the market has to offer! I am thinking of a plan that calls for smaller targets between 11:30 and 1:30 cst because to me the moves are more choppy during these times.

  637. Called Lunch

    Whenever volume goes away (Big Boys) - PA does get choppy - no one left but the we little people..., and bots to bounce price back and forth

  638. Often times the definition of trend is pushed aside, but I require a close beyond the trendline, providing this close is above the high of previous bars' high, don't want to define trend change when price has simply drifted above a trendline. John Hill in one of his books from late 1970s said new trend would come from a "Thrust" in one direction, so I modified it in terms I could understand as in close beyond previous bars' high or low to show me trend, there are several references like Joe Ross's "1,2,3" but t all boils down to making a low(1), move up(2)(ultimately trendline drawn to this), testing the low(3), then breakout bar and seeking quick retracement to retest the trendline. And this are not only done on one minute bars but I also been doing them on monthly bars, very robust. As far as targets, since getting in a start of Elliots wave 3 most of the time if wave 5 which is near end of swing, both can offer much longer targets. Even though I generally take off 90% of contracts at smaller targets, 1-2 times a week I will get much larger profits on sustained trend swings.
  639. Many…, seek reason to trade

    Few…, look for reason not to


    Trading chop is the second riskiest environment there is…, I don’t desire any more risk than is necessary


    What I know about Elliott wave – would not crowd the head of a needle

  640. 1st trade lower high short at 3594.25 stop 3598 target last swing low of 3584. 2.lower high short at 3574.25 stop 3577.25 target breach of down move trend line. 3. Lower high short at 3564.50 stop 3568.25 target breach of dmtl. 4.another lower high short at 3556.50 stop 3558.75 target breach of dmtl. 5. Higher low long after a retest of low 3546 stop 3543.50 target 3558. Last swing high. 6.another higher low long 3555.75 stop 3551.50 target 3566 last swing low. Looking back my target on the 2nd short should have let it go until 3550 the next support area.
  641. Back in a bit

  642. Overall Comments

    I do not see your stop/ target (red/ green) lines – consistency my friend… it all about being consistent

    From ~ 9:00 on – price in a range – a tradable range no doubt… but a range nonetheless – did you pick up on that??

    In fact…, today there were several ranges – within the bigger range

    1st trade
    lower high short at 3594.25
    stop 3598
    target last swing low of 3584.


    Entry – If you look closer – I think that Lower High – is actually a Higher high – either
    that or the circle is in the wrong place (see red circle???)

    Stop – Good

    Target – Good but a tad conservative – there is downward momentum & price respecting the DMTL

    Trade 2.
    lower high short at 3574.25
    stop 3577.25
    target breach of down move trend line.


    Entry – Sweet

    Stop – Sweet

    Target – and Sweet :)

    Trade 3.
    Lower high short at 3564.50
    stop 3568.25
    target breach of dmtl.


    Entry – Good

    Stop – Good

    Target – Breach of which DMTL (see my note)

    Trade 4.
    lower high short at 3556.50
    stop 3558.75
    target breach of dmtl.


    Entry – Good

    Stop – Good

    Target – Good (but see how price ranged when it hit the bottom of the range) – Purple circle

    Trade 5.
    Higher low long after a retest of low 3546
    stop 3543.50
    target 3558. Last swing high.


    This one is problematic to me

    Entry – Going long as price was approaching the bottom of the range (in green) - Hmmmm

    Stop – Good

    Target – Little optimistic given the range (even breached the UMTL before it reached 3558)

    Trade 6.
    higher low long 3555.75
    stop 3551.50
    target 3566 last swing low.
    Looking back my target on the 2nd short should have let it go until 3550 the next support area.


    Middle of a range entry – you know what I think of those – BUT…., there was another range (in pink) that price BOU


    Entry – Good

    Stop – Good

    Target – based on the yellow range – a little too optimistic (aim for 3564.75) – also see how price started ranging there

    TLs look good :)

  643. The first short lower high was based on pre market swing high that you can't see on my chart
  644. Gotcha

  645. Will post my chart and prep work for next week on Saturday. Very busy at work today. After a 13 hour day my youngest daughters team had softball practice!
  646. Coach em well !!!!

    And get some rest

  647. Friday 500 tick chart trades. 1. short on a lower high at 3563.75 stop breach of dmtl aprox. 3565 target 3551 last swing low. 2. short on a failure at the last swing high 3563 stop 3567.25 or breach of dmtl target last swing low of 3549. 3.the nq broke out of congestion and tested the mid point and made a higher low so the long was at3553.75 stop of 35551 and target last swing high of 66. last trade was a higher low at 33569 stop at 3566.25 target breach of up move trend line.
  648. Back in a bit

  649. Friday 500 tick chart

    trade 1
    short on a lower high at 3563.75
    stop breach of dmtl aprox. 3565
    target 3551 last swing low.


    Entry – Good
    Stop – Good
    Target – Good

    Trade 2.
    short on a failure at the last swing high 3563
    stop 3567.25 or breach of dmtl
    target last swing low of 3549.


    Entry – See “also DT” on chart - Good

    Stop – Breach of the DT – as the DNTL was not really established

    Target – Good

    Trade 3.
    the nq broke out of congestion and tested the mid point and made a higher low
    long at 3553.75
    stop of 35551
    target last swing high of 66.


    Good job identifying the congestion – I say congestion because the PA is dirty

    Entry – Good

    Stop – Good

    Target – Good – but see how price started ranging when it neared the last SH – it does that – exit – no need giving back money (unrealized profit)

    Last trade
    higher low at 33569
    stop at 3566.25
    target breach of up move trend line.


    I think the entry price is screwed up (3356.9)

    This is a classic example where former R becomes S (light blue line)

    Entry – Good

    Stop – Good

    Target – Good


    All in all..., the context you drew looks good – it is accurate – it reflects what price is saying

    And we are PA traders - with the focus / emphasis on P :)

  650. Yo

    A trade management to incorporate into the tool kit;

    If price between the entry and target – and begins to range

    This range;

    Could be a PB - which BO and continues

    Could be price no longer wanting to continue

    Could be price changing its mind..., hence direction

    Trade management;

    If price BO toward the target – stand pat

    If price remains in the range – for what you consider an extended period of time – exit (trades neither working - nor not working - are a wast of our time)

    If price BO back toward the entry – (against the position) – exit

    And should the range develop close / near the target - exit..... (and don't give it a second thought - always another trade looming on the horizon)

    Just a little sumthin – sumthin to add to the ole arsenal Sir

  651. todays trades. 1. higher low long at 3574.350 stop breach of up move trend line target 3586 pre market swing high. 2. higher low long at 3588.25 stop 3585.25 1 tick below signal bar and target last swing high of 3597. 3.long above support at 3602 stop 3599.75 target breach of up move trend line. 4.last trade a long above support at 3609.75 stop 3607.50 target breach of up move trend line.