One of Anek's followers? I've heard they can predict market direction successfully. It's also my understanding that they don't actually trade the way that Anek talked about in his big thread here. In other words, they don't jump into trends with any of that HH/HL crap, but instead call market reversals like clockwork.
Forget fibonaccis. Garbage. Ask yourself this question: WHILE that fear-based selloff is occurring, do you think it looks the same internally the whole way? Or will volume, ratio of transactions on bid to transactions on ask, MM willingness to let price run, density of stops encountered, size and duration of retracements etc. change as the move progresses? If they change, and the 'life cycle' of a fear-based selloff is the same from one to the next, then wouldn't that tell you, as it was occurring, something about when the selloff would end?
I agree that fib stuff is crap but it's a pity that you banned all indicators because I seriously think even a simple MA crossover system would have produced better results than your both-long-and-short system. Anyway, I just want to put out there the idea that random and unpredictable are not synonyms. Not everything unpredictable is random. For example, the next digit of pi after the current last one calculated is unpredictable, but given sufficient resources and time, it also can be calculated. Truly random events can't be calculated. Prices are sometimes unpredictable (the 'chop') but they are at other times pretty predictable, at least directionally (the trend).
Constant range bars? They eliminate chop in theory (if price is sitting there going horizontally, they don't print, which is nice) but the downside is that sometimes you get multiple bars printing at once which has its own negatives and trading difficulties. What are those dots above and below your bars all about.
it has hardly anything to do with reversals like clockwork, everyone I know that makes money is doing a lot of trial and errors to see where this trade will take you. That's what most people don't get imo.
1. Three of your pairs are not viable, eliminate them. 2. You need to have a dual strategy, one for mean reversion, and one for trending, develop it. 3. You risk management profile will make a net winner or loser, nothing else. Why do you not see threads about traders specific risk management profiles?? Because that is where the edge is
You don't have to be able to precisely predict future price action to make money trading. Just put odds slightly in your favour.
you take entries with small stops and let them get to even smaller stops soon afterwards or move your stop to breakeven. You try to let your winners run. A lot of them won't work (the majority) but that's not too bad cause these losers will be small. You put the odds in your favour by having a positive expected value as one winner might make up for five losers. My win rate might be below 50% but it's not below 20%