What I get from that blog is that we are f**cked either way. Either hyper-deflation or hyper-inflation is going to take us down. If that guy is right and what he says comes to pass, it wont matter how you play this market. The people that will get through it the best are the ones with land away from urban areas. Land that they can live on without any outside help.... You better have a getaway plan if you live in the city...
i've known karl for a long time and he's always been anti-social and exaggerates everything. I agree with pretty much everything he writes but look at his previous posts, everyone is that the world is coming to an end in 24 hours. Of course, a broken clock is right twice a day. That said, the bigger question is that most people have a vested interest in seeing some form of government; its likely to be some consfication of assets (via visible or invisible, thru monetization) but even if you have 30% of the dollar's you did, what if they can buy a lot more, thats the most likely scenario, IMHO -- not nuclear winter, at least not in the US. I've been out of all assets (other than trading) and long USD although I'm taking in on the chin yesterday. My thesis is the dollar will rally as things get worse and worse.
Information is so voluminous, and it's so easy to drown in data that I find it useful to actually write JOBS on a piece of paper, and to constantly remind myself that those 4 letters are 95% of the puzzle.
You started this thread in November: "How does one intelligently hedge against the risk of a US Dollar collapse?" You asked this question: I replied:
I wish I would've bought gold. I bought none. Now, I worry that it may be too late, although as a pure hedge against currency deflation, it is probably still a sensible move (i.e. preservation of purchasing power vs strategy to add wealth).
I was long when I made that post. It was a great trade. I sold 3 700puts and used the premium to buy 3 900 calls-I added 1 a little later. I hedged up at 988 but haven't repositioned. In my opinion-long is a crowded trade. OTOH I don't think gold can have a "serious" break either, i.e. below 750. So if you have the inclination you can either do some dollar cost averaging in GLD or construct a synthetic like I described......
I came from barter city to tent city to boiler room 20 yr old mula machine to internet bubble millionaire to burst me bubble where'd me money go to thunderdome and perhaps back to barter city .... de pinga.... I should have stayed in Cuba... I'd be at the malecon, without a shirt or shoes shooting the shit with me homeys...
I first heard of Karl Denniger about two years ago, he appeared out of nowhere on a mb of a stock I was following. I checked out his blog and I thought he even responded to one of my e mails. He basically was run out off the mb with his bearish comments but they made sense and eventually panned out. Imo, The wild card re outcome in most well thought out editorials is the human factor and "when", which are unforseen and hard to account for, desperate men do desperate things. (which in the case of the stock I was following, there was mucho proping up on the share price via company shenanigans.