Many of us can perform basic math and fractions. The Cali docs used Government data, to perform basic fraction math. NYC population is at 25% antibodies, as of last week, when the sampling data was accumulated. The results were announced yesterday. https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/0...es-present-in-nearly-25-of-all-nyc-residents/ 5 days prior to this announcement, the prior antibody test had NYC at 21% antibodies. So without the lag, in 5 days, NYC antibodies (those exposed to the virus and recovered), grew by 4%. In 5 days.... This is very important. Lets look at the math. NYC population = 8.7 million. NYC antibodies = 25% x 8.7 million = 2.175 million have antibodies (persons exposed to COVID19 and recovered.....yes, it really happens) NYC deaths = 21,000 est. (NYT article today, below). NYC Death Rate = 21,000 / 2.175 million recovered COVID19 persons = 0.09% That death rate is less then an average flu season (0.1%). Now all the whiners complain about the comparison of YoY seasonal death rates?!! NYC is 21,000 deaths OVER their rolling average, for the same monthly period?!?! Yes, true. But the *assumption* all the Cassandras make is COVID19 death totals continue indefinitely, with a parabolic trajectory. There's no data, no Country data, and no state data to show thats true. In fact, most countries level off after the extremely elderly and frail are exposed and die. In fact, it is mostly the extremely old and frail who die from COVID19. After they are exposed, and die off, the death rates drop substantially. Sweden, for example, never instituted a lockdown, and only has 2K deaths. And the vast majority of those deaths are extremely old people in nursing homes..... https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html
No. Lets keep the elderly and frail isolated. Let the old and vulnerable populations self isolate. The rest of us can go back to work and live our lives....without committing national suicide It's very simple. You don't seem to grasp that simple concept very well. Many high-level epidemiologists have said exactly that. Keep the old and frail isolated and everyone else goes on about their daily lives.
Further to this..... Does anyone understand fractions? The denominator in this case is growing exponentially, while the death rate is growing linearly.....and with a slowing growth rate, as well..... What does this mean??? 1/2 = 50% death rate. 1/3 = 33% death rate. 1/4 = 25% death rate. ... 1/10 = 10% death rate. 1/20 = 5% death rate. 1/30 = 3% death rate. ..... 1/100 = 1% death rate. 1/200 = 0.5% death rate. The death rate gets lower and lower and lower and lower, as time goes on, and more of the population is exposed to the virus, develops antibodies, and recovers. The reason why the death rates were so astronomical in the beginning, is simply because testing was so scarce and unavailable. So Guv's published the numbers they had on hand, which showed a very small sample of antibody tested patients = small denominator = high death rate. Its just simple math. Cuomo is sending ventilators to other States (which he never needed). The Navy Hospital Ship was sent back Virginia etc. Temporary hospitals put up by the National Guard all over the Country, are being taken down. Many never have been used. Many docs and nurses reporting pressure to write COVID19 on every death certificate for Federal Money. THis is another critical fact, that overstates the COVID19 death numbers, makes the death rate lower, and the far left never acknowledge.
FURTHER TO THAT.... "Throughout the city, emergency rooms have been overcrowded, ambulance response has been slowed, and many residents might have been reluctant to seek medical care because of fears of contracting the virus. Hospitals around the country have reported reductions in admission for heart attacks, one sign that some people may be dying at home from ailments they would survive during more normal times." https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html The 21,000 deaths number is overstated. Many of those deaths are NYC persons who had heart attacks, strokes, untreated late stage cancer, that simply didn't or couldn't go to the hospital. As many hospitals were shut by order for everything BUT COVID19. And many sick NYC persons in need of urgent care, did NOT go to the hospital, for fear of contracting COVID19. Same as the Cali Docs said !! So the 21,000 death number is wrong. Its too high. So the numerator is smaller then stated, making the NYC death rate smaller then stated. This is all very simple.
Yourself excluded. Sweden death rate is 12% of confirmed cases. Basically stating that some figure >12% of those admitted to hospitals, died. Sound like flu to you, dipshit?
You better focus on the numerator A new analysis of coronavirus deaths suggests that official tolls are massively undercounting all over the world https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...higher-than-official-tolls-ft-analysis-2020-4
Even Governor Cuomo stated in his press conference that the COVID-19 death rate was at least 5 to 8 times greater than the seasonal flu based on these anti-body figures. Maybe you need to get up with the governor and explain your flawed math to him.
Nobody goes by confirmed cases. They go by extrapolated antibody test rate. You can't sample everyone in the country when taking a poll. Nobody can. Nobody does. Confirmed cases misses those that have had COVID19 and recovered. Which is why confirmed cases is not used when determining how much of any population has had the virus etc.
If it's over can I beat you to death? Deal? Norway's rate at 1.5% https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/