what i'd say to Raoul is that the Fed is much more conscious of financial conditions today than they have ever been, thanks to Dudley's influence. Also the dot plot is not indicative of much, what truly matters is what stance will Powell take and it's a high probability bet that he will act dovishly going forward. So that complicates matters...
After this https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/Speeches/2002/20021108/default.htm Bernanke gave us late 2008 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=jn2l
Ah ok I think I see what you mean. Yeah, read up on Dudley and his speeches on financial conditions. Also Powell is a business guy, not a dork like Bernanke was. As a famous trader once said, patterns are there to be broken...
Bernanke apologized to Friedman for the Fed causing the Great Depression according to Friedman's monetary theories that the Fed crashing the money supply crashed inflation into deflation and unemployment. After Lehman's bankruptcy, he caused 3 months of record setting deflation not seen since the Great Depression. Central banking is never without a sense of irony.
Sure, Bernanke was spectacularly and ironically glib. But even Fed heads are capable of learning, if they can get out of their useless models and use some common sense by looking at the failures of both Greenspan and Bernanke. There is some evidence of that learning in Yellen's tenure, which I think will be continued with Powell