Home > Technical Topics > Technical Analysis > macd indictor lags, is there software that doesnt

macd indictor lags, is there software that doesnt

  1. when using the macd , its always lagging as you know . is there software or trading platform that shows the indicator in real time.

    i like the 5min/15 min bar with the macd indicator, but the macd inductor is so lagging that you miss alot of the move. thanks.
     
  2. Its called learning price action, and it would be most helpful if you removed any lagging indicators from your screen.
     
  3. qwert, this is BS advice.

    The tradeoff on any MACD is between reliability and sensitivity. I would encourage you to use a combination of lengths, possibly different by security, that balance these two.
     
  4. What software are you using. If it's anything decent, and not google or MSN money or soemthing, your indicator is real time.

    The only thing you can do is reduce the number of bars(length) used in your MACD's calculation. This will 'speed up' the indicator so to speak.

    May or may not give you the results you want.
     
  5. qwert, swordsman is completely correct.
     
  6. change the numbers to 3/10/16
     
  7. You are wrong. You may not understand technical analysis (I suspect > 90% on this site have not studied it with much serious intent) but some do.
     
  8. Yes qwert, swordsman is absolutely correct.

    It's the old conumdrum of figuring out something which is very simple by going through an extremely complicated process.

    As with everthing, it is the traders discipline (or actually, lack of it) that will create the rope which hangs himself.

    However, please do not take our word for it. I think you should spend the next 2 or 3 years trying out your other options, just so you can find out for yourself. :D
     
  9. Jurik research used to market indicators 'to get the lag out'.

    Never used them but heard favorable opinions from some.

    Anyone here have any current experience with them?
     
  10. This is the type of vague yet self-congratulatory psychobabble I see a lot of on this site. And it gives no assistance whatsoever to the OP. Price action is important, but advising him to take indicators off the screen is something you're encouraging him to do without helping. What specific actions are you helping him with? Nothing.

    Here's a challenge: post something SPECIFIC and "very simple" in terms of price action that has personally helped you trade profitably.
     
  11. Not true, what you DON'T stare at (ie taking something off your screen) can be just as helpful as telling someone to add something. It depends on how you view my statement.

     
  12. OK, fair enough. But telling someone never to drive drunk does not teach them how to operate an automobile.
     
  13. Well, if you notice the OP has been a member of ET ~5 1/2 years (according to his sign up date) and if he's still having trouble with lagging indicators, he should probably lose them and just focus on PA.

     
  14. My advice is more akin to telling him to stare out the windshield with his own eyes while attemtping to drive rather than having his eyes closed and a passenger verbally telling him what to do (ie hit gas harder, swerve now, break!!) :)

     
  15. Jurik's stuff is expensive.

    Just make your own with Zero Lag EMA (ZLEMA?) and/or Hull MAs. The formulas for those are free.

    btw, qwert, everyone is going to tell you that indicators lag "because they're based on historical data." That's true for most indicators. Obviously there are no indicators that predict the future. You will probably go through a period where you try every indicator, and then make your own, and then start modifying them, and then come up with non-standard uses (that are better than the traditional uses, lol), and all the meanwhile you will be reading posts from people telling you to "learn about price action" but no one will explain it more than that so you're like "wtf is price action?". Trust me. I'm still in that stage right now :D Supposedly all the billionaires on ET don't use any indicators at all but I haven't figured out how that works yet. Good luck!
     
  16. Paul Rotter uses CCI and seems to do ok

    From interview with Paul Rotter

    Q: what timeframes are you using on your charts?
    A: usually 5 - 30 min charts for trendlines and indicators. i prefer p&f charts because they give me a clearer view on patterns (triple tops). for indicators i like the CCI because it also shows the volatility of the markets
     
  17. It ain't the software. MACD is a derivative of price moving avgs. The larger you make the lengths, the longer the lag will be.

    Price action using market structure works. Indicators can too. Mix-n-match.
     
  18. It might help to know the macd inventor Gerald Appel recommended different parameters for buying and selling: 8-17-9 to generate buy signals and 12-25-9 to generate sell signals. You might want to experiment with those or shorter parameters to reduce lag.
     
  19. Hull's MA overshoots, Jurik's MA doesn't. Dunno about ZLEMA.
     
  20. I tend to agree with Swordsman. All price and trend indicators lag. To short a setting and you will get a false start and plenty of whip-saw, to long a setting and you will miss the boat. I only use Volume based indicators and only for sorting or scaning a large watchlist of charts.

    Knowing where price is in relation to critical levels and how volume is reacting is all one needs for good analysis.
     
  21. 100% correct

    Anek
     

  22. As much as I hate to agree with traderzones and THIS guy..:) haha THEY ARE RIGHT.

    Price action is king.
     
  23. I would encourage you to continue with the macd. You could use jurik mas or hull or t3 mas instead of those slow emas. Don't worry about overshoot ... its only a problem if the numbers are too small. Don't buy into this price action/human brain stuff.


    I hope you will do this for several years. We will appreciate your generous contributions.
     
  24. Of course indicators lag.

    But this is not what the OP was asking about...

    There are software that calculates indicators in realtime...

    and there are software that calculates indicators at End-Of-Bar.

    For MultiCharts, all you have to do is to click a checkbox to enable re-calculation every tick.
     
  25. Or maybe he could spend 5 years being a Hershey clown and be no closer to success like you
     
  26. A sharp gal on CNBC this morning said this:

    "The science of trading ponders the past, the art of trading ponders the future"

    Price action has been around forever, makes sense right? When computers came along all of a sudden every Joe Sixpack and Susie Saladmaker was inundated with a thousand new ways to ponder the markets past information. Vendors from newer and greater trading platforms such as TT and others gave us speed and not much more. Gurus sprung up like wildfire and even some quack job fron Tucson decided his lifes calling was to be a pain in the ass with technibabble and infesting everyone elses threads.

    What has all the computer power and all the new ways to decipher historic market indicators done to change the ratio of winners to losers? Right, nothing.

    Tape reading in the early days of trading was nothing but price action, now we have screens instead of the tape.

    Science is about what adds up, what fits, tried and true. Artform is about you and your ability to keep it simple and take calculated risks from what you know, not from what others tell you. The art is about being wrong and dealing with it in order to move on.

    The only software that matters is the gray material between your ears. PRICE action rules.
     
  27. Thats a very piggy view. Get out of the trough and let the OP just improve his MACD.
     
  28. kiwi trader

    Actually it is an intelligent view. Can you not handle a women and a "HOG" guide you out of the dark?
     
  29. I second this. I tried every indicator under the sun for years but in the end, every one of them are a derivative of price. One of the most beneficial things I ever did was to remove all indicators from my charts.
     
  30. I think what it all boils down to for people is the understanding that learning PA is a long and constantly evolving process and most cringe at the thought of putting in tons of screen time. People are lazy and indicators seem easy :)


     
  31. It's laughable to see Swordsman try to give advice when he can't become profitable himself :p
     
  32. Your advice is simple, yet excellent and really explains WHEN to look at price action and indicators. Price action (some I work with call it, flow) is critical to watch at retracement levels, recent highs/lows, etc., Coordinating these with indicators (I enjoy RSI and volume bars) is certainly an excellent way to trade a wide variety of markets.

    The Most Interesting Man In the World on using only lagging indicators to trade a market.

    "No."
     
  33. MACD is a piece of $hit indicator; I went through thousands about 6 years ago with that one in the spooz, learn Market Profile or go home. When you learn what paper sees and uses- a true auction market process like being in the pit years ago you will make $.
     
  34. You are correct about HMA overshooting.

    Hang on I will post some charts for comparison.
     
  35. Here you go. 10, 25, and 50 period HMAs and ZLEMAs for comparison.

    I get the feeling that ZLEMA is supposed to be used in smaller period increments... I'm not sure if you'd ever go higher than 50 or so... the "zero lag" aspect makes it sound like it's meant for short periods, like 3, or 5, or 10. You can see the 10 period ZLEMA follows price pretty closely.
     
  36. kut2k2 do you have the Jurik MA? Can you post a screenshot of it on the ES? I want to see how it compares to a fast ZLEMA.
     
  37. 5 period HMA vs. 5 period ZLEMA.

    HMA is slightly faster but overshoots.

    Then again I've heard it's not necessarily fair to compare x period average of one MA against x period average of another MA. There are some huge differences between some of them.

    I've heard that HMA only overshoots and doesn't undershoot. Does that sound right?

    Anyway here's the chart:
     
  38. Of course it also depends on what you're using your MA for. Slope? Support/Resistance? Profit target? Crossovers?
     
  39. Ironfist. I have read about moving averages that eliminate lag but when you do so you trade lag for speculation and in my opinion you are no better for it.

    Indicators like the VPCI (Volume Price Confirmation Indicator) Are a better tool. It is an oscillator and shows when Volume is confirming a price move or not. In a down trend if volume is low or shallow then the indicator will be negative and when the indicator is possitive then volume is confirming the trend.

    How best to use this indicator?

    If you have charting software then you can scan a large list of stocks for a negative reading on the VPCI. This will give you charts that the volume is not confirming the current price action. You can then use the next step in reasoning that if price is near a support or resistance level, a Fib level or pivot point that a price reversal is imminent.

    Here is where you can learn more about this indicator

    http://www.tradecision.com/support/tasc_tips/VPCI.htm

    By the way how would anyone know if Swordsman is profitable or not? He sounds like he knows what he is talking about more than most here.

    MACD is garbage.
     
  40. can't you just look at volume instead of indicator based on volume?
     
  41. same could be said for just looking at price rather than a derivitive of price.

     
  42. I would consider using the MACD Histogram as a counter trend indicator. MACD-H is mearly messuring the velocity of the price action. When the histogram makes new highs compared to the previous wave it only means that price has accelerated. When I see a new high in MACD-H then you might consider shorting the stock and of course the reverse method could be applied.

    Over-all, in all my years of trading I have never found MACD to be a reliable indicator.

    To many false signals...
     
  43. I have studied TA thoroughly. Most serious traders did at some point.

    Most serious institutional studies have found TA useless

    You as well as others are 'believers" in TA. You pump it, promote it, and yet you never did a serious major longterm study of your own on the majors indicators,.

    Once you do and realize that, you stop using it.

    90% of the people here DID use TA. What do you think most traders base on, if not TA ??????
     
  44. spoken by another Jack Hershey paper trader...
     
  45. Watching price action IS a form of TA
     
  46. stop thinking of it as in "indicator" and think of it as a "study". a study/tool used to measure the past. it does not "indicate" anything, no indicator does. They are all just mathematical "studies".

    and...given that, i notice that many people and charting apps use the bar close as the input to the study (indicator). why? do you think on say a five minute bar that everyone around the world is staring at their computers, holding their breath until the 5 min bar closes? closes what? closes for business? closes escrow? closes tail?

    Just like there is no such thing as an indicator, there is no such thing as a Close, or Open of a bar. Trades (transactions) move fluidly through the electronic trading markets. There is no concept of open/close on an any bar in any time frame or tick frame, its just a marker in your charting application that you believe poses some value. it does nothing of the sort.
     
  47. Sorry I don't have it. But here's a comparison from Jurik's website.
     
  48. actually, I base my trading on the close of the previous bar. So 30 seconds before the close, I wait anxiously to see if it closes at the price where it will trigger a trade that is likely succesfull.

    If I do this, others must do it too.
     
  49. And what would a moron that studied Hershey's SCT for 5 years and sucking up to Spydertrader without working out it was rubbish know about price action? :p
     
  50. Okay, I am a noob, but from all the information I have come across [I am chasing my CMT now], I have seen price & volume remain as the true measures of when and where to strike. But the problem with saying that the indicators are wrong, lag, etc. is that MOST OF THE POPULAR INDICATORS ARE DERIVED FROM SOME FORM OF PRICE & VOLUME DATA. So what did you really say?

    If you are referring to watching the price movements of the different orders being placed, have told these people how they should account for dark pools? Have you mentioned that if overall security volume is down, snap shots of price action would allow other traders to eat their lunch [and dinner too?]. Did you also explain that the speed of which your data provider can get you data can make or break you if all you are watching is price action? Did you explain that if you watching MACD and other similar indicators, you should probably concentrating on swing trading in the first place?
    No. So if you're not going to take the time to answer the questions appropriately, don't suck people in with recommendations that will get them in more trouble than it is worth.

    Bottomline is Half truths will get you killed - literally. If you study the bible enough [I mean even if you're not religious, it is still a good read], you'll notice that the Lucifer [the devil] generally uses half truths and twisting of facts or statements to draw people in. Baiting many might call it.

    And to answer the original question: both.

    Most traders on this forum should be using [in order] Market Volume, Security Volume, RSI, MACD, Stoch, [or something similar] along with some basic fundmentals [P/E, Tobin's Q] to ISOLATE their traders and to set targets exit points. From that point when you RSI & Volume are about to pass strike zones [for RSI or like indicator, just after a cross], that is when you watch Price Action like a hawk and nothing else -- Really. Close your chart. You have enough data to be in the right security, you just looking to exploit the best entry you can without getting a false move. And you keep going until maybe you get good enough to trade off price action alone. But then you should be hedging with calls and puts anyways to allow your swings to unwind so you won't be in too much of a hurry. I know that this might be for the lower end trader, but it IS what works and it gives you the opportunity to learn a sector profitably while trading a live account

    Real pros can do this buy looking at price action alone all day. But then, Larry Bird could hit over 100 free throws in a row -- several weeks in a row. Most people at the pro level couldn't even do that. The same can be said for Price Action.


    My $0.02
     
  51. Thank you for the enlightenment.

    I have been looking for an oscillator like this but have continously missed it.
    It solves a bunch of headaches for me and allows me to start looking at much shorter trade time frames. Thanks!
     
  52. You are welcome Drjmpc. I must say that I too enjoyed your 1rst above post, it was dead on target and shows that you are on a solid path to becoming one of those proffessional traders. I mostly use indicators to sort and scan, not for enrty or exit. Once a good chart is found it is like finding a gold nugget or burried treasure. You need only apply good common sense mangement rules and patience.

    I am new to this forum - almost three weeks, and it is good smart folks such as yourself and Swordsman that we need more of, and less sarcasm and ignorance. {Rawfist I do not know how your statements enriched this thread in any way? Are you a trader or a troll?}
     
  53. Well I can hardly be held responsible for your lack of comprehension now can I

    But if you really want me to enrich this thread then get all those indicators off your charts and put in 10 thousand hours.. there is no other way
     
  54. I have more than 10,000 hours of hard research and study loged in thank you. 15 Years worth. Again I only use a small handfull of indicators to scan for opportunities and not for decision purposes.

    Swordsman has made it clear that he uses no indicators and yet you attack him. I would like to think that we can all come here to share our knowledge and experience, maybe bounce new ideas off each other free from sarcastic spectators who offer nothing to the dialog, only to interupt it.

    Hear is a stock that I just recently entered. Uncovered using one indicator, entered using common sense trade managment skills {no indicators}

    http://i394.photobucket.com/albums/pp22/Ptolemy_2008/HLF.jpg

    http://i394.photobucket.com/albums/pp22/Ptolemy_2008/HLFII.jpg
     
  55. ==================
    we-r+ t/nickname;
    All moving averages lag;
    except one type:cool:
     
  56. #######################################

    You are waiting for the question - aren't you?? lol:

    which type of MA does not lag??

    + what do you mean by:
    ""we-r+ t/nickname;""

    I don't get the point.

    Thanks
     
  57. drjmpc,

    Good post but let's give the Bible the same courtesy of capitalization that you gave Lucifer....
     
  58. How the F do you know what long-term studies I have done and have not?? Please get off the high horse.

    The OP wanted to know about MACD's and I was one of the only ones who gave him an answer.

    I've seen too many of your posts and I'm not convinced you know what you are talking about.
     
  59. Quote from BullAlert:

    How the F do you know what long-term studies I have done and have not?? Please get off the high horse.

    Because you would only reach the same conclusion, that TA indicators have little value. That is what serious longterm studies of TA by major academic/financial institutions conclude

    The fact that you still continue to dabble with them is evidence enough you never did a serious long study.

    If you wish to dispute this, then try replying with your studies, by all means.
     
  60. You first, smartass, since you know the studies I have not done as well as those you have done.

    Other than saying TA is not useful you have demonstrated absolutely no expertise in "price action" or any justification that you personally have developed long-term studies that support your argument. You do mention academia and I suspect this is where your interests lie: with studying published papers. I personally have give academia very little credibility because so many lack any real-world experience. Academics are driven by prestige derived from becoming an "expert" and comfort that comes from never having to put real-world money on the line to validate results. It is much safer to write about it.

    I put my own money on the line not just as a trader but as an investor. I will say that TA becomes more useful with larger time horizons. This is not to say that MACD and other indicators have not helped me on intraday trades.

    So, again I ask you to support your argument.
     
  61. First you have to agree on a definition for just what Technical Analysis is. I do agree that it is not the art of interpreting indicators. In my humble opinion I believe that true Technical Analysis comes from being able to understand what you are seeing in the chart.

    I have seen charts that have moved {short term} on bad fundimentals. However I was able to determine that the move was warranted just by looking at the volume and price action. Accumulation can be seen in the charts and those that are accumulating know way more about this stock than most.

    You make the comments that long term studies show that TA does not work, well I am here to tell you sir that I am a long term study and my portfolio is the results of that study. TA is the only thing that works. Indicators are usefull tools to scan a large group of stocks for given criteria and that is where their usefullness ends. Reading the charts and knowing what you are looking at is the only way to succeed in the Markets.

    Charly, do not fall into his trap. Their is no such thing as a non lagging moving average, I have read articles on this subject and the results are always the same. "A moving average that leads price is based on if/or logic and is pure speculation" think about it, how can you put the carage before the horse? You see, you cannot.
     


  62. I'm a newbie, but as far as I'm concerned technical analysis is the study of reoccurring human behavior. A lot of people don't subscribe to TA because they believe prices move randomly, however TA people understand that prices move because of supply and demand. Supply and demand are created by people and their belief that they can never have enough money and the fact that they can't stand to lose any. Those 2 attributes of human behavior are always present, and thus supply and demand, and thus price action are interpretable and can be predicted.
     
  63. Price moves are never truly random, because there is always a reason for why price moved the way it did. The problem is it may appear random due to the fact that you saw a situation in which there were too many possibilities for price to do that it SEEMED random. The key is whittling it down to the times where there are very few things that price can do in a given moment and get ready to pounce. In index futures this may only be a handlful of times a day but thats why we wait.

    :)
     
  64. I'm going to quote you in the latest price action journal, if you don't mind.
     
  65. ok, sure

    :)



     
  66. On this point, I have to agree. If you look at the original PA Journal, you'll see many traders are using tried and true S/R and well known chart patterns. This is TA.
     
  67. Agreed. In reality, price doesn't know nor care if a bar closed or opened at a certain price; all that matters is the price just traded at X and the rest is a method or system for traders to pick entries and exits. If this helps traders "see" a setup that has a high probability of long term success, good for them, but remember the market doesn't care about bars per se.
     
  68. Very good post, jonbig04. I for one believe they behavioral information that can be derived from market activity, both long-term and intraday is why so many professors & scholars get into the markets in the first place.

    I must say that alot of the debate that cause the banter on the thread is simply because of the time frame different participants are looking at as the optimal time frame. My opinion is that Position Trading & Swing trading are all that should be discussed, given the all the details are presented why? Well with position trading, you're almost a long play investor who has enough "nads" [sorry ladies] to recognize that we need to locate optimal/near optimal entry & exit points in order to maximize profits, Minimize losses, and rotate into sectors as appropriate...

    On the flip side, Swing trading helps you to build the skills to necessary to know that when you may be " 'chruning' you own account" unnecessarily on an intraday opportunity. Obviously this doesn't really hold water with a stat arb or straight scalping strategy, but it will benefit most traders. Truth be told, you may have an opportunity to make even more money on a pending downturn or pullback by shorting rather than closing you position... But how will you know if there's a legit opportunity present or if you are becoming greedy if you can't identify a trend?

    So again, you have to know and understand your strategy, and stay disciplined to it and you're time frames in order to be successful. I mean you don't master freethrow shooting by doind dribbling drills, now do you?

    my job is the mastery. I am so far away on that; but then in that [the practice that is] lies the rub! Doing the work.....

    my $0.02
     

  69. Aye, the work is hard. Or, difficult I should say. I see candles when I close my eyes at night. Hmm

    ..note I did say candles, not indicators :)
     
  70. I think it's such a great post because I was saying something similar over here:

    Making Money of of Randomness

    It's nice when something clicks for me and I see it clicking for other traders ... :)
     
  71. I was a few glasses of red wine deep when I posted, probably didn't word it as well as I would have liked. But we are on the same wavelength at least.

     
  72. No disrespect to Jurik, but I've never seen price do that before :D

    Seriously tho I'd like to play around with the JMA, I just don't have $5k sitting around to buy a moving average code with when I'm sure ZLEMA and/or Hull are most likely close enough for every purpose I could think of using an MA for:

    - Crossovers
    - Slope
    - Support/Resistance

    I can't think of any other uses for MAs can you?
     
  73. Very interesting. I'm going to program that into SierraChart and see what I think of it.
     
  74. Ironfist, If you are really serious then here is the way that I have interpreted the formula in Telechart.

    8 Bar indicator - (C * V + C1 * V1 + C2 * V2 + C3 * V3 + C4 * V4 + C5 * V5 + C6 * V6 + C7 * V7) / (AVGV8 * 8) - AVGC8

    14 Bar indicator - (C * V + C1 * V1 + C2 * V2 + C3 * V3 + C4 * V4 + C5 * V5 + C6 * V6 + C7 * V7 +C8 * V8 +C9 *V9 +C10 * V10 + C11 * V11 + C12 * V12 + C13 * V13 ) / (AVGV14 * 14) - AVGC14


    Good luck.
     
  75. Quote from BullAlert:

    You first, smartass, since you know the studies I have not done as well as those you have done.

    Other than saying TA is not useful you have demonstrated absolutely no expertise in "price action" or any justification that you personally have developed long-term studies that support your argument. You do mention academia and I suspect this is where your interests lie: with studying published papers. I personally have give academia very little credibility because so many lack any real-world experience. Academics are driven by prestige derived from becoming an "expert" and comfort that comes from never having to put real-world money on the line to validate results. It is much safer to write about it.


    Of course you don't give academia credit. After all, why should 10-30 year exhaustive studies of most indicators coming up empty stop you? You know so much better because you is so clevR

    The fact that you continue to cling to TA is all that needs to be said.

    But don't bother responding. Time for ignore. When the facts stare someone in the face, but they resist, then it is a waste of breath to continue
     
  76. Based on your graph I've decided to evaluate the indicator in an AI program that I'm porting.

    It'll be a few months, but if you remind me I'll let you know what my conclusion was. It's certainly intriguing.
     


  77. Can you please post some of these studies? They may be a useful read.
     
  78. May have already been said but the zero lag macd exists I know for sure NT offers it.
     
  79. Folks look at the subject of the thread "MACD indicator lags, is there software that doesn't"?

    The answere is "NO". If any indicator were to lead price than it would be the "Holy Grail" and Millionairs we would all be, but the Markets would collapse long before that happened.

    Volume might be the only indicator to actually lead price, but then volume is just as unpredictable in its movment and it does not always lead price.

    The only holy grail to be found is within us folks, to know yourself and to keep your demonds at bay. to understand that there are repeating elements within the price action. For one we know that price will stall at critical levels and that volume can help us to gauge were price might go, so you place your bets and then place your stops. You mange the trade, your share lots and your capital. You mange risk, you know the environment around you that you are trading in. That means Market condition, World politics and current events, the price of oil and which sectors and industries are moving.

    You put the odds in your favor as best you can and still there will be drawdown, but you have to stick with a solid plan, use patience, discipline and experience.

    All these things are what makes a trader successfull. Not some magic indicicator. Think about it, how can you lead price? You would have to be a psychic.
     
  80. Hey Ptolemy!

    Welcome aboard. It took you long enough to get here.

    mp :D
     
  81. Hey their Toptrader8. I did not know that that you were over here as well. Glad to have some company. So far so good. We have some smart folks here, only encountered a couple of cowboys but we will see.

    Do not be a stranger.
     
  82. Non-lagging indicator = Line on Close...:p
     
  83. Let me restate, {although I think that you are just kidding around, a good sense of humor is needed in trading}

    There are no leading indicators other than Volume based. And even then you need to use caution and good Managment skills.
     
  84. I can't speak for everyone but I can offer a practical opinion from my personal experience day trading gbp/usd
    using macd on intraday trends. ( in a range, macd did not work for me at all).

    Stating the obvious, I was always late (late potato or the gravy) or even missed out on some smaller trends because
    of the lag. But some of the trends lasted long enough to ride it out and to make some money.
    Sometimes, I broke my macd rule and got in a trade a bit early, just because the price pattern/action suggested
    what the market "might" do. MACD confirmed "a bit" later. Those were the best trades.
    Based on this experience and the fact that MACD is derived from the price why not follow the price itself?

    MACD is less subjective than price action. Specific rules could be applied to macd and followed. Also, since
    you're lagging, the price might have already "moved" and the picture is clearer.
    With price action, it would seem, the price pattern is never the same, the information is never complete and
    the picture not that clear. Price action/pattern requires LOT of screen time to understand what the price is
    suggesting. Not everyone is willing to put in the screen time to understand the dynamics, price patterns and
    its context.

    But If you do ...

    Bottom line, it's not about macd or pa but it's about making money. If you're making money with macd, good for
    you. If you stick around long enough and you're more of an artist, you'll gravitate towards price action/patterns.
    If you're more of a scientist, you'll probably come up with your own custom indicator.

    good luck to you.
    G.
     
  85. Well said. :)

    GL
     
  86. everything lags even 'price action' is historical. you can't trade it till you see it by then it's history.
     
  87. You can start here. There has been a lot of work, and most of it is not on the internet.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis

    The problem is, that even when some value is found, they tend to be useless once commissions, slippage and fees are included. This fact is usually left out by people who claim positive studies.

    Here is one book on the subject:

    http://www.amazon.com/Evidence-Base...=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1219508613&sr=8-1
     
  88. These studies are useless and do not address the real mechanics of Technical Analysis. We are not attempting to predict future price movment based on past price action. This study performed by "Academia" is no more insightfull than a study of Heavy Metal music conducted by the Boston Pops.

    TA is simply the study of current price action and how best to profit. Is it coincidence that price will stall at critical Fibonacci levels or even at Support or Resistance? One only need look at all charts to see this. Why do you think that there are those that make fortunes in the Markets?

    There are just as many studies for TA as thare are against. Just because you find a study on the internet where "Academia" was involved does not make it fact. The only real facts are gleaned from performing your own studies and the truth will either make you rich or it will make you poor. If your study makes you rich then Technical Analysis is valid. If it makes you poor then it is not.
     
  89. Actually, the Mesa Sine Wave indicator doesn't lag.

    But I don't have a clue about how it works, so I don't use it to trade.
     
  90. You think?

    Are you saying I can't predict the future?

    Your statement is redundant. I would not try to engage in that kind
    of discussion unless somebody pays me to "talk" about it or trading is
    not my primary income.

    I trade off 'historical price action' only. I like my pnl.

    G.
     
  91. Volume is after the fact (price) are you speaking of DOM Volume, if so what indicator is used with this

    I would not think any trading related to DOM would be a good idea due to the number of orders cancelled and others placed just for show.
     
  92. Bathrobe I see your point. A good friend of mine also sees this your way. - A price is set to creat a market or bids and the price will rise or fall based on supply and demand. This is a very slippery slope in my opinion. It is sort of like the chicken or the egg. I would like to say that there is a definitive answere to this but the truth is that I have read and experienced support for both arguments.

    My point is that it is my belief that if you are to trust a price move one way or the other then volume is at the very heart of the engine that will sustain the move. I am a tape watcher and when I see large share lots being moved around in an almost systematic pattern then I start to look at the stock with more scrutiny. In most cases these volume anomolies lead to a price move (not always imediate). Ones opinion is based off their experiences and it has been mine that after many years of personal research and putting my money where my theories take me that it is by following the volume and indicators based on exposing accumulation that have led me to profits.

    I use all time frames to look for increasing volume. Monthly, Weekly are the best.

    My statments are only meant as my opinions and experiences. We all have our own and if you are making steady profits then of course you are not wrong.
     
  93. ##########################################

    rofl - I agree more or less.
     
  94. ignore this poster's statement. Has a serious case of nonreality!!!

    Seriously, you need to let go of your beliefs and start learning what works!!

    There are NOT as many studies for as against. After adjusting for all trading costs, TA has little value. And some studies that showed TA value, were guilty of data snooping nad wishful thinking. TA has been heavily tested, and does NOT work.

    As for your "coincidence" about Fib, studies have also dismissed fib or round numbers. They are no more useful than any other level.

    You are seeing things that you want to see.

    If it is their "edge",TA will make everyone poor eventually

    Why do you think most people use TA and most people lose their money?????????????????????????
     
  95. Most people lose their money because they do not understand or properly apply sound TA.

    Of course most people lose money in the markets that is how it has always been and that is how it always will be. That has nothing to do with Technical analysis. You speak in broad terms but show nothing to focus your point. You think that a study that you downloaded from the net is all you are going to need to enlighten anyone.

    I find it easy to take profits from the markets because I follow strict rules based not only on Technical Analysis but good money managment, risk vs reward capital alocation and controling the evils of greed and fear (not eliminatating them).

    Most of my income is derived from trading full time, So you can can rant and rave all that you please, I know that Technical Analysis works and I have been proving it every day for a long time now.
     
  96. Studies about TA:

    If I found that TA is useless I will publish it.

    If I found real advantage in it I will use it for trading. /at the moment when I will publish it the edge will vanish for sure/

    I am scientist in something else like trading. I published hundreds of articles during my life.

    Openly telling the only real discovery that I found during my life remains unpublished - simple because it makes "edge" for those are using it against competitors in one mini part of industry. I sold it.
    I am less known between few dozen scientists from same branch around the world but I purchased luxus house for it.
     
  97. Evidence be damned!!!! Ptolemy's Edge:

    [​IMG]

    Time to put this newbie on Ignore!!!
     
  98. Traderzones (more like zoned out) Your own name sake speaks to using TA how can you be a trader and not use it? A trader is considered and active participant in the markets, unlike an invester who will buy and hold stocks based on quality fundimentals.

    The fact that you will not stand and prove your point instead of running away and saying that you will ignore me is very telling. I am not a newbie, quite the opposite I am a seasoned "trader" with many years experience. I do not advocate filling ones screen with a multitude of indicators. But I do belive that one can gain knowledge and an edge in their trading by studying charts. In particular Price and Volume.

    I can prove my point through a series of time tested techniques that work. If you care about this forum and the "Newbies" education, then make a stand and prove your case. If you are more knowlegable than I, more seasoned, Hold the real truth, then proving your case should be a simple task and very benificial to other "Investors". Who knows I might even learn somthing (I am not afraid of this).

    So speak up or shut up.
     
  99. "Sorry about the capitals, don't know how to do bold for the answers."


    CONSIDER THIS - TWO FIGHTERS, ONE RELYING ON ACCURATE KNOWLEDGE OF HIS OPPONENT AND INSTINCT, THE OTHER HAVING TO CONSTANTLY PULL OUT THE FIGHTING HANDBOOK (INDICATORS) TO SEE WHAT HIS NEXT MOVE WILL BE, WHO DO YOU EXPECT WILL WIN THE FIGHT!

    IT ALL RELIES ON HOW, NOT WHAT, YOU THINK!

    YOU'VE JUST BEEN GIVEN THE INFORMATION YOU SEEK, SO NOW GO OUT AND DO THE LEGWORK.

    Regards
    Johno
     
  100. How about a shoot-out between traderzones ( anti-TA ) and ptolemi ( pro-TA )
    Let's have both your forecasts everyday for a week on this thread starting this Monday 29th (before the market opens ). That should settle it me-thinks.
     
  101. All oscilators lag the price, that is becaused they use price as the base of their calculations, so price has to change before osillators can change. There are no leading indicators

    piazzi
     
  102. Good post, ptolemy.

    I'm convinced TraderZoned spends more time debating on this site than trading.