The Formula is simple:
Interest rates rise and affect the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to bear markets. This impacts many other industries and jobs. These markets are either rising or the activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in either market as a plateau of prosperity or Cinderella situation.
Friday you witnessed the Dow rise sharply in the AM on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continued until a major corporation announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for States.
The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exciting the US into world markets (deficit).
It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments.
If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest.
This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparallel dimension.
Therefore as you get to #11 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.
There is no way out of the above and no factual argument can refute this. In particular the Cando (resource and water currency) and the Euro (the un-dollar) are buys on all reactions.
Ok, so you keep buying the dips -- where will your stops be?