This trade - long equities & commodities, short US dollar will be valid as long as Bernanke is our master planner. I have no stop, UDN is the only way to go. US dollar is going down, that I am very certain for sure. US dollar index will never see $89 for a longgggg freaking time. Like NEVER. Long QQQQ, XLF and FAS, SPY, V, BIDU. AAPL going to $600, GS $900 and US dollar index to 40. Bernanke will print $50 trillion more to bail out his 'bonzi' banker buddies. YES Hyperinflate it till Obama drops! Euro will be $5 very soon, but FAS to $900 http://www.finviz.com/publish/081509/FASc1dl0000.png HAIL BERNANKE & GEITHNER!
America is the greatest producing nation in the world noone can stop us. Bernanke shall lead us to Victory!
shorting US dollar is like taking candy from little kids All I have to do is just sit and wait while Ben Bernanke prints more funny money diluting the purchasing power of its existing holders.
I am turning to the opinion that the dollar has a vicious rally coming. Short dollar is very crowded, we need to sell treasuries, equities rally is a govt orchestrated farce, credit destruction dwarfs QE and we are in a deflationary environment = poof! Im just trying to figure out the timeframe and how to put my money where my mouth is. Puts on TBT, long some kind of dollar etf, short/puts on commodities? Whats the other side of your trade?
I'd short GDX, which is basically a leveraged play on gold. Gold will crack bigtime on a nice dollar rally, and GDX will go in that direction at least twice as much. Both are more volatile and therefore more profitable, if you get it right, than the dollar, and GDX is actually more volatile than TBT. Of course, also more dangerous if you're wrong too. Personally, I think everything will be flat more or less until EOY. No one's expecting sideways.
First of all, I want to know what kind of crack you've been smoking. Because it seems very potent Secondly, anyone who believes anything coming out of Bernanke's mouth about deflation & credit destruction dwarfing QE deserves to lose his account. Thirdly, we are out of the deflationary phase already. Deflation is so 2008. And last but not least, as there are still US dollar bulls on crack/other form of hallucinogens hoping for dollar rally as Bernanke printing, I am going even more aggressive shorting the dollar. I'm in UDN for my ETF. Long Euro, Swissy, cable, and Mexican peso. Yep, Mexican peso I'm not kidding. Because it's going to rally big time when the dollar collapse.
I never said I got the deflation idea from Bernanke, i got it from the wealth and credit destruction > QE (by about a factor of 5) independent numbers Ive seen. Im not providing a source unless I restumble upon one, but there are plenty out there. Also, thinking anecdotally, I havent bought anything not on sale in 12 months. Well, except the bounce in gas. Maybe I just get all the deals. You dont feel the reflation trade has played itself out? Its come a long way. The govt made the market go up, and may need it to crash to drive people into treasuries so they can unload the 8 zillion we have coming up. I think inflation is probably years away, but the USG can do what it wants so... Funny you mentioned crack, I just decided to switch to decaf after market hours this week. I sleep so much better.
Are you guys addicted to negativity? Does the scenario of massive destruction of wealth excite you somehow? Maybe you see yourselves as emerging from the wreckage as "THE MAN" with beautiful Amazonian women on each arm or something... When /if inflation hits it could be catastrophic, it could be very sudden, sometimes in other places it has started up almost overnight... it could feed on itself, and with BO Pelosi and Company in charge I believe it would... but until then I'd party hardy... there are sectors of the economy that are really strong currently.. wtf... Bloomberg is perma bearish imo.. I'd hit the kill switch on that shit.. mainstream media is marxist, I'd hit the switch on that shit too, negativity is a mental disorder that they feed and keep it alive and make it grow...
u are just 1 more example of migrants from yahoo finance chat boards to ET. are you an example. of America's brightest and best? no one can stop us from what? creating worldwide chaos?
Do you not see a huge imbalance between the market pricing in 4% GDP growth going forward at a PE ratio of 140 and the real economy being in the shitter with a few weak at best second derivative improvements in fundamentals and a government creating trillions in obligations and unending moral hazard? Somethings got to give, forward looking my ass. There is negativity because the current situation is not good, not emotional half-emptyness. And I am interested in what part of the economy is really strong (besides bk attourneys). Tech I admit I dont get, but anything consumer driven I am not convinced by.