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Discussion in 'Forex Trading' started by Primetrader, Aug 16, 2009.

  1. A clear violation of the Crucial Weekly Support line (S) at 95.25/30s turned the table around. But as we draw attention to H4 component, a rally seems to be brewing at this point in time. The 14 bars cyclic trough may cause the turn around (up tick) as the pair just constructed its 14th bar low and now pushing up on a count of one bar.

    Around 3 bars minimum up run or 6 to 8 bars maximum up run are sited and near term upper barriers are: A) 95.14/18; B.) 95.48/52; and C.) 95.58/62 or thereabout major barriers to be followed immediately by a reversal.

    But as the D1 is busy digging lower, the rally seen in H4 and H1 could be short-lived, thus a continuity of the down trend could persist and H4 would opt for a completion of either a 17-bar cyclic bottom or a 21-bar bottom. In order to have a handle on this price action, I have drawn the S1 and S2 rising diagonals (please see 4 hour chart). You want to hold on to your “buys” for as long as S1 support line is in tact. Upon violation of S1, we have S2 as a safety net to catch the fall. But watch that S2 line hold prices from slipping further because if violated, what seems to be a 17 or 21 bar cycle pattern aforementioned, will then come into play and suck prices to form the trough (in search of new low).

    Moreover, if the S1 and S2 supports crack without completing the rally mentioned above, I see a minimum of 6 to 7 H4 bars of sustained bearish push with a potential of going for 9 bars --- instead. On near term basis supports to consider in your short entries are: A.) 94.06/11; B.) 93.70s; and C. 93.25/30.
     
  2. Moreover, if the S1 and S2 supports crack without completing the rally mentioned above, I see a minimum of 6 to 7 H4 bars of sustained bearish push with a potential of going for 9 bars --- instead. On near term basis supports to consider in your short entries are: A.) 94.06/11; B.) 93.70s; and C. 93.25/30.